UBTech Holdings and Autostreets IPO analysis: Less popular stocks have higher win rates, be cautious with hot stocks!

Recent IPOs have seen three consecutive gains

Shenghe Biotech B's grey market rose 8.9%, and it gained 7.5% on its first trading day, continuing the winning streak of B-category biotech IPOs over the past year
 

Quzhi Group's grey market performance was impressive, $EDA GROUP HLDGS(02505.HK) rose 32%, closing up 40% on its debut

These two well-performing IPOs share a common trait: they were relatively unpopular during subscription, with less than 15 times oversubscription and no clawback!
 

EDA (Yida Cloud) in the grey market was a hot stock. When Brother Cai analyzed it earlier, he thought its valuation and fundamentals were solid. This hot stock also rose, rumored to be due to a clawback scheme

In the past two years, stocks oversubscribed over 100 times usually perform poorly unless there's a clawback scheme, like Tianjin Construction Development and Mobvoi earlier this month
 

The two currently open for subscription are overheating, especially UBest Holdings, the first GEM IPO in four years

1. Auto Street$AUTOSTREETS(02443.HK) 

Auto Street's IPO market cap is around 9 billion HKD, a solid large-cap stock
 

But this auto stock has no greenshoe or cornerstone investors

Remember what Brother Cai often said? Historically, when large-cap stocks can't secure cornerstone investors, it usually means they're overpriced

If it's just slightly expensive, institutions might still participate as a courtesy
 

But if it's so expensive that even institutions can't justify it, you get a large-cap stock with no cornerstone investors

The last large-cap stock without cornerstone investors was ChaPanda, which listed last month and plunged 27% on its debut—exactly as Brother Cai predicted
 

Thus, historically, large-cap stocks without cornerstone investors tend to fall more than rise!

So, is Auto Street truly too expensive to attract cornerstone investors?
 

We can assess this in two ways: comparing it to itself and comparing it to peers!

① Self-comparison

Self-comparison means looking at its valuation in the last pre-IPO funding round
 

As shown above, in its last funding round exactly a year ago, Auto Street was valued at 3 RMB per share, or 3.2 HKD

This means Auto Street's IPO valuation has surged 234% in a year—isn't this blatant exploitation of naive investors?

② Peer comparison

As another used-car online platform, Uxin has a PS ratio of 8, while Auto Street's is 16.5—double Uxin's valuation, clearly exploiting naive investors
 

In summary, Auto Street couldn't secure cornerstone investors because it's too expensive, and historically, large-cap stocks without cornerstone investors mostly decline!

2. UBest Holdings$UBOT HOLDING(08529.HK) 
 

Since the main board requires a minimum market cap of 500 million HKD, and UBest Holdings' IPO market cap is only 250 million HKD, it's not a main board IPO but a GEM IPO
 

There hasn't been a GEM IPO in four years, and this one exploded immediately, with margin financing showing 1000 times oversubscription, surpassing Tianjin Construction Development as this year's hottest IPO

This frenzy is expected, given it's the first GEM IPO in four years
 

For such ultra-small stocks, fundamentals don't matter—let's just analyze the subscription plan!

3. Subscription Plans for the Two IPOs

For this round of IPOs, Brother Cai maintains: "Unpopular stocks have higher win rates; hot stocks require caution"

Shenghe Biotech and Quzhi Group performed well precisely because they were unpopular
 

But the current two are both hot stocks, so caution is key. Remember Tianjin Construction Development and Mobvoi earlier this month? Their poor performance was due to overheating!

Auto Street is outrageously expensive, with even institutions unwilling to be cornerstone investors. It's already 100 times oversubscribed—definitely skip this one. Unless you're betting on a clawback scheme, the 100-times curse is hard to break
 

As for UBest Holdings, being the first GEM IPO in four years, its heat is different from Auto Street's

Historically, GEM IPOs have seen both surges and crashes. To commemorate this four-year milestone, even conservative players like Brother Cai will subscribe. While oversubscription over 100 times has low win rates, over 1000 times has good odds—if you can get allocated!

It's notable that seasoned IPO players are now very cautious, while many newbies have emerged recently, fearless and reckless—watch out for traps!