Movie giants missed the summer box office season

Zebra Consumer Chen Biting

The summer movie season, initially expected to be lukewarm, has gradually heated up due to the blockbuster success of "Catch the Doll" and the rising buzz around upcoming films like "Decryption," "The Outcast," and "Against the Current."

There’s only one fundamental reason: content is the primary driver of the film market. High-quality films attract audiences, generate word-of-mouth, and propel works to blockbuster status. In this market, successful films yield 超额利润，激励电影公司投入更多优质作品，形成正向循环。

Against this backdrop, this summer has seen a 集中上演 of "disappearing giants." Hits like "Catch the Doll" and "Silent Kill," as well as potential blockbusters like "Decryption," "The Outcast," "Against the Current," and "White Snake: Floating Life," are not primarily backed by traditional film giants. Companies like Bona Film Group, Enlight Media, Beijing Culture, and Huayi Brothers have merely joined the fray.

Is the Summer Movie Season Back on Track?

This year’s summer season was initially met with widespread skepticism.

A key reason is that last year’s Dragon Boat Festival hit "She Disappeared" boosted box office numbers, sustaining momentum into the summer. This year, however, the Dragon Boat Festival generated only 380 million yuan in 票房， down 530 million yuan year-on-year. More strikingly, while June 2023 saw 4.133 billion yuan in 票房， June 2024 managed just 2.23 billion—a gap of nearly 2 billion yuan.

Surprisingly, recent hits like "Silent Kill" and "Catch the Doll" have reignited the summer box office. Both films have cracked the top 10 of 2024’s 票房榜， with Maoyan predicting respective totals of 3.377 billion yuan and 1.398 billion yuan as of July 25.

Real-time data shows that as of 12:00 PM on July 25, the 2024 summer box office (including presales) stands at 6.4 billion yuan.

But zooming out, this year’s summer 票房 is down over 40% compared to last year’s 11.194 billion yuan—and even lags behind pre-pandemic figures. From June 1 to July 25 in 2017-2019, summer 票房 ranged from 7.268 billion to 8.617 billion yuan.

The market contraction is even starker in admissions: 2017-2019 saw 211 million to 249 million tickets sold during this period, while 2023 hit 277 million. This year? Just 158 million.

Can the second half of summer sustain momentum? It’s doubtful.

Upcoming releases like Wuershan’s animated IP "The Outcast," Xu Zheng’s 现实题材片"Against the Current," Chen Sicheng’s 谍战片"Decryption," and Light Chaser’s "White Snake: Floating Life" should perform decently. But with too many big films crammed into August, the market may struggle to 消化 their potential.

Last summer, even with multiple hits, the July 26-August 31 period grossed just 9.426 billion yuan. Even matching that would put 2024’s total around 16 billion—still below pre-pandemic levels.

A Shift in the Industry’s Center of Gravity

This summer’s performance reflects broader 消费 trends, but the root cause remains a lack of 优质内容. It reaffirms that creative talent is the industry’s core resource.

Among over 100 summer releases, traditional studios like Bona Film Group, Wanda Films, Enlight Media, and Huayi Brothers backed more than half—yet most flopped. Wanda Films stands as the sole clear winner.

After Ruyi Group took over Wanda Films, former Ruyi executive Chen Zhixi became its chairwoman. Her 制片 projects often involve new-gen directors. Wanda and Ruyi both invested in "Catch the Doll," with Ruyi also backing Xu Zheng’s upcoming "Against the Current."

Bona’s 成龙-led "The Myth Sequel" has underwhelmed since its July 10 release, earning under 80 million yuan against rumored 300 million yuan costs—a likely massive loss.

Huayi’s "Lucky Hotel" and "Dog Squad" managed just 56 million and 33 million yuan, respectively.

Enlight Media delayed "Nezha 2" for sci-fi comedy "Exit Safely from the 21st Century" and rom-com "Her Dimple," neither of which seem poised for breakout success.

This summer’s victors fall into two camps: content-driven teams like "Catch the Doll" backers Xihongshi Films and Mahua FunAge, and auteurs like Chen Sicheng ("Decryption") and Wuershan ("The Outcast"), whose companies could cement their 神话。

In recent years, Chen’s Shanghai Yitong, Han Han’s Tingdong Films, and Wuershan’s Eternal Faith have demonstrated strong project 操盘能力。

Previously, these filmmakers relied on 传统巨头: Chen’s "Detective Chinatown" series was a cash cow for Wanda, Han Han collaborated closely with Bona, and Wuershan’s "Creation of the Gods" trilogy was steered by Beijing Culture.

This summer, however, the rift between these 新势力 and 传统巨头 has widened. Wanda skipped Chen’s "Decryption" (backed by Shanghai Huaren Films), while Wuershan’s "The Outcast" is a Tencent IP co-produced by 阅文集团 and his Eternal Faith—not Beijing Culture.

The film industry’s 权力结构 is 重构 ing, shifting from 传统巨头 to top-tier filmmakers. This explains the crises at Huayi and Beijing Culture, as well as Bona and Enlight’s stagnation.

Can these old guards prove their relevance during the National Day and New Year holidays? Only time will tell.