Change is eternal, but ups and downs are unpredictable | September 11-18 Review

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) Let's first update the situation of the Hang Seng Index. Over the past week, the index not only did not fall but also showed an unusual rise. However, it should be noted that with the Northbound funds on holiday before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the chances of a short squeeze are generally higher. Observing the trends of the three major A-share indices today, it doesn’t look like a short squeeze for now. However, we must pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will suddenly make unexpected statements or significantly cut interest rates overnight. In any case, the stock price is still fluctuating within the range of 18200-17000; this trend is most favorable for holders of $A GX HSICC(03419.HK).

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) has become one of the strongest tech giants; it’s showing signs of preparing to break new highs. However, be aware that there might be some extended movements in the short term, so waiting for a pullback to around 123 would be an ideal time to establish a position, with a stop-loss at 119.

$TENCENT(700.HK) is still brewing a major move, as previously mentioned, the fourth quarter in Hong Kong stocks might belong to tech stocks. Since they have been undervalued for many years, if funds really favor Hong Kong stocks, tech stocks will be a key strategic focus. The key point is 386; once it stabilizes above this level, I will focus on long positions, with a stop-loss at 363.
$BABA-W(9988.HK) continues to oscillate upward, with the stock price clearly developing slowly along the 50-day moving average. The stop-loss is set at 78, and there’s a high chance it will continue upward. Watch for any acceleration in the trend.
$XIAOMI-W(1810.HK) According to market research data, the company successfully surpassed $Apple(AAPL.US) in smartphone sales in August this year, becoming the world’s second-largest smartphone brand. With the final piece of the electric vehicle puzzle in place, the entire smart ecosystem is expected to integrate very well. The stock has great potential, and I would consider going long at any time, with a stop-loss at 18.3.
$MIDEA GROUP(300.HK) has become the king of new listings this year. Pay attention to how it drives A-share prices simultaneously. Despite external skepticism, it has the potential to be a dark horse. In the same sector, $TECHTRONIC IND(669.HK) is showing a very good trend.

$NASDAQ-100(.NDX.US)
The entire market is waiting for the Federal Reserve’s decision. The rebound in U.S. stocks since last week has been somewhat unexpected. Last Wednesday, when inflation data exceeded expectations, the market sharply reversed. Trading is always about planning but leaving the outcome to fate.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) continues to hover around the key point of 115. For now, the stock hasn’t managed to break out strongly to challenge new highs, nor has it developed a reasonable downtrend. The current trend is neither here nor there, much like $Salesforce(CRM.US), which just announced a partnership to develop advanced AI experiences.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) is still in a sideways range. Only if it clearly breaks above 234 will there be a high chance of another upward trend. Conversely, if it falls below 215 again, the assumption of a rebound will be invalidated.
$Intel(INTC.US) has seen a series of good news, such as manufacturing custom AI chips for $Amazon(AMZN.US) and receiving U.S. government funding for military chips. However, the stock price is just a dead cat bounce.

1. Positions and Trades
$A GX HSCEICC(03416.HK) remains a key holding. The trend over the past six months has been very favorable for investors to continue enjoying high-interest returns. The HSCEI’s fluctuations over the past six months have kept the ETF’s price stable at around $COSCO SHIP HOLD(1919.HK) long put was an absolute misstep. Greed led to not taking profits in time and failing to act decisively when profit signals appeared.
$Qualcomm(QCOM.US) long put timing wasn’t great either. Entering too early without waiting for the stock to rebound and then turn downward risks the option becoming worthless.

2. Reflection
Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. Recently, I’ve found myself in the latter category. Sometimes, there’s no clear entry signal, but I rush in too eagerly for profits. If you enter without sufficient conditions for victory, defeat is inevitable. The only reason to enter is when you see your advantage and act on it to secure victory.

3. Strategy
According to my Hong Kong stock screening system, the number of rising stocks is still lower than the number of falling ones, indicating the market hasn’t fully turned upward. If the Hang Seng Index shows strong momentum again, the top pick would be $XIAOMI-W(1810.HK), as mentioned earlier. The untapped market now lies in India, so keep a close eye on $GX INDIA TOP 10(03184.HK) for potential deployment. It could emerge as a rising star in emerging markets. In U.S. stocks, although the current rebound has broad market support, few stocks show sustained upward trends.
Thank you all for your support, likes, and comments. Your encouragement is my motivation to keep sharing. Wishing everyone a happy Mid-Autumn Festival again.