BTC market analysis — Wave 3 is coming, get ready for a violent surge!
Today is October 19th, exactly one week since I pointed out that Bitcoin entered a critical phase last week. BTC has surged from 63k to 69k, proving the foresight of the prediction made on the 12th. Today, let’s conduct a deep "analysis" of Bitcoin’s macro-cycle technicals.
Market Recap: A Brilliant Performance of the Five-Wave Rally
Since Bitcoin bottomed out in late November 2022 (low of 15.4k) until mid-March 2024, it has experienced a "spectacular" five-wave upward movement (marked by the orange solid line in the chart). From the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory, this five-wave pattern is exceptionally clear and worth savoring. Notably, the slopes of Wave I, Wave III, and Wave V have progressively steepened, with Wave V completing the most intense extended impulse wave. I’ve already provided a detailed breakdown of this in my analysis earlier this year.
Accurately Predicting the Peak of Wave V: We Quietly "Shorted" While the Crowd Was Bullish
In mid-March this year, when the market was overwhelmingly bullish and many influencers and KOLs were predicting Bitcoin would break 80k, I calmly poured cold water on the hype, clearly stating that Wave V would peak at 73.6k. The actual price reached 73.7k—our prediction was spot-on. While most people lost money going long, we profited easily by shorting.
Future Outlook: Ditch the Fear of Heights, Wave 3 Is Coming Strong
Now, many friends are feeling "fear of heights" as Bitcoin has risen from 15.4k to 73.7k, thinking the price has gone too far. I must remind everyone: ditch that fear! If you exit now, you’ll regret it deeply in the future!
According to Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the orange five-wave pattern can be seen as Wave 1 of a larger cycle, while the recent six-month sideways triple-three correction (not marked in the chart) from 73.7k to 52.5k can be interpreted as Wave 2. What’s coming next is Wave 3 of the larger cycle. Those familiar with Elliott Wave Theory know that Wave 3 is typically stronger than Wave 1, packed with awe-inspiring explosive power!
The Biggest Enemy in a Bull Market Isn’t the Market—It’s the "Fear of Heights"
In a bull market, the biggest mistake naive investors make isn’t chasing rallies—it’s fearing heights, constantly thinking "this time it must drop," and failing to hold when they should. Worse, some even try shorting at highs, only to get tangled up and lose capital from constant flipping.
Remember, the real key to winning in a bull market is holding firm. As Wave 3 approaches, hold onto your BTC tight and enjoy the next powerful surge!
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