2024 Week 42 Weekly Report

Portfolio net value at the beginning of the year: HKD 2,307,716

Latest portfolio net value: HKD 3,716,696

YTD return: 61.1%

Hang Seng Index YTD return: 22.04%

S&P 500 YTD return: 22.95%

Nasdaq YTD return: 23.17%

Portfolio

The public portfolio's YTD return continues to stay above 60%, closing at 61.1% this week, which is relatively stable. This is what I believe ordinary working individuals should aim for—lower volatility without chasing extremely high returns, but rather seeking consistent growth. This year's return has far exceeded my annual target of 15-20%, for which I am truly grateful. Achieving over 60% by year-end would already be an overperformance.

Market Overview

There were no major news events significantly impacting the U.S. stock market this week, except for the Harris vs. Trump debate. The "Trump Trade" has gained traction recently, most notably with DJT surging. Another standout was BTC breaking through $65,000 and currently trading around $68,000.

I'm no expert on BTC, but I've been bullish on it this year and have invested in BTC-related assets (as my fellow investors know). BTC has strong tailwinds this year, primarily due to the launch of BTC ETFs, supply halving, and potential rate cuts. BTC has become part of institutional and big players' asset allocations, and I've also allocated a portion of my assets to BTC.

Both presidential candidates support crypto, but Trump is notably more pro-BTC. If Trump wins, BTC will likely rally further. Conversely, if Harris wins, BTC may dip short-term due to its recent surge. However, in the medium to long term, BTC is poised to rise.

The U.S. earnings season kicked off this week. ASML was the first major mover, accidentally releasing earnings a day early. Due to weaker-than-expected orders and poor guidance, its stock plunged 17%, dragging the broader market down. I pointed out that ASML's poor performance was company-specific, not industry-wide, making the dip in other stocks a buying opportunity. Two days later, TSM delivered a stellar earnings report, beating expectations and surging ~10% post-earnings!

Another standout was Netflix, which soared 11% to a new all-time high, alleviating concerns about declining subscriber growth. Its improving fundamentals mark it as another strong growth story—a common theme in the U.S. market, where good markets breed great companies.

As for Hong Kong stocks, the market was sluggish earlier this week, slipping back into a downtrend. However, on Friday, a surge in trading volume led by brokerage and tech stocks sparked a rally. Positive catalysts included Q3 GDP growth of 4.6% (slightly above expectations), high-level government support for tech, and regulatory backing from the central bank and securities watchdog. After days of correction, the market had ample reason to rebound.

Hong Kong stocks are notoriously unpredictable. Everyone expects policy support, but the market keeps falling until the policies are announced, making it hard to time entries. Once policies drop, the market surges, leaving latecomers scrambling. This cycle repeats endlessly.

I posted earlier that 20,000 points should act as a support level, as Hong Kong's market has fundamentally shifted—its bottom is unlikely to revisit 16,000 points, conservatively staying above 19,000. Thus, the closer to 19,000, the better the risk-reward. Conversely, approaching 33,000 points makes it less attractive.

I view Hong Kong's market as range-bound, likely oscillating between 20,000-23,000 points. Breaking this range won't be easy, with policy support capping the downside and economic recovery challenges limiting the upside. The best strategy is to trade the range—avoid greed at highs and fear at lows.

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The above reflects personal views and does not constitute investment advice.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Netflix(NFLX.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $MEITUAN(03690.HK) $SMIC(00981.HK) $ASML(ASML.US)