On October 15th, nearly a month before Singles' Day, major e-commerce platforms kicked off the longest promotional season in history for the shopping festival.

Among the top livestreamers, it came as no surprise that Alibaba's top host Li Jiaqi had a strong start:

The popularity score in Li Jiaqi's livestream room once exceeded 10,000, and within less than ten minutes, the presale GMV instantly surpassed 100 million yuan, securing him the title of the first-day sales champion for Alibaba's "Singles' Day."

Some products promoted by Li Jiaqi sold out instantly:

Kefumei Collagen Sticks sold 20,000 units in one minute, with restocks reaching 600,000 units—gone in three minutes; BBC diapers, 30,000 units, sold out instantly; L'Oréal's All-Star Set, 10,000 units, sold out instantly. According to official data from Meione, the presale purchase amount in Li Jiaqi's livestream room increased by over 20% year-on-year.

Image: Li Jiaqi's first-day performance report for 2024 Singles' Day. Source: Forbes China Weibo

One detail suggests that Li Jiaqi's approach to this year's Singles' Day was at least superficially effortless:

While other influencers were still pressuring viewers with "buy now or miss out" tactics, Li Jiaqi's livestream repeatedly reminded users to "consume rationally." The contrast in consumer care between the top host and others was stark.

Fans declared, "The king of Taobao is back."

01

It's worth noting that Li Jiaqi's current rebound contrasts sharply with his unusually quiet past year:

Multiple reports indicated that on the first day of 2023 Singles' Day, Li Jiaqi's livestream sales totaled 9.5 billion yuan—less than half of 2022's 同期 figure and a three-year low. During this year's 618 festival, his presale numbers dropped another 46% year-on-year.

Those familiar with livestream e-commerce history know Li Jiaqi faced setbacks after the eyebrow pencil controversy, as online audiences have long memories:

At Meione's 618 promotion launch in May, Li lamented the difficulties of being a host, only to be mocked online with comments like "How is hosting hard? Have you even been working hard? Did your salary increase over the years?"

A quick learner, Li soon sensed the shifting 舆论 winds.

Per Southern Metropolis Daily, on August 6 this year, Li's affiliated company was sued by cosmetics manufacturer Cosmax over contract disputes. By September 24, Meione had established an international development department, signaling preparations for overseas expansion.

With multiple hosts stumbling pre-Singles' Day, Li's first-day comeback was seen as stabilizing Taobao's beauty category, reassuring brand partners.

02

However, industry insiders recognize flaws in Li Jiaqi's reported numbers:

First, Li remains Taobao Live's cornerstone after years of investment:

Launched in 2018, Taobao Live's GMV still hasn't reached one trillion yuan—less than half of Douyin Live's and trailing Kuaishou. Over three years, numerous top hosts like Viya, Cherie, and Lin Shanshan faced tax penalties, while 小红书 recruit Zhang Xiaohui proved incompatible with Taobao's ecosystem.

Per Yuanchuan Institute, 8 of 12 major cross-platform hosts have quit, including Li Dan and Oriental Selection. Jokingly, observers note Taobao keeps recycling Li Jiaqi—its only proven star since 2016.

This forces brands and platforms to keep betting heavily on Li despite diminishing returns.

Hence both Alibaba and Li treated this year's Singles' Day as make-or-break, evidenced by Li distributing 500 million yuan in red packets—100x more than Viya's 2021 giveaway—a move that instantly trended.

Image: Media coverage of Li Jiaqi's 500 million yuan red packet campaign. Source: Sina Tech Weibo

Yet data reveals the hype: Despite 20% presale growth from 2023's halved performance, 2024's results with massive incentives still only reach ~60% of 2022's first-day sales—a worrying sign.

Image: Li Jiaqi's 2023 Singles' Day first-day report. Source:大众网 Weibo

Moreover, beauty bloggers exposed pricing issues—many Li-promoted products cost more than offline/duty-free channels. Example: Estée Lauder Futurist Hydra Rescue (30ml) was 550 yuan (with samples) vs. 247 yuan at 日上免税店。

The deeper signal? Brands no longer consistently offer Li 全网最低价—Lamer, Estée Lauder, and HR saw limited sales, while Shiseido plummeted year-on-year. Meanwhile，国产 brands like Kefumei achieved 6x growth on Douyin without Li.

Douyin's 2024 Singles' Day beauty sales rose 75% year-on-year, with domestic brands dominating category rankings—proof that Li's influence may be becoming optional.

03

Realistically, today's Li Jiaqi lacks his earlier disruptive power. His inability to secure rock-bottom prices signals decline.

His appearances on "Call Me by Fire" and low-profile year suggest strategic retreat. International brands share this realism—Kose closed its Tmall flagship after 36 years in China, while NYX, Amplitude, and VNK (a Li-boosted 国产 makeup brand) also exited.

Even Alibaba pivoted—since 2023, brand-owned livestreams grew 215-330%, while short-form dramas emerged as new traffic sources.

This 三方 dilemma magnified during Singles' Day 2024. Users complained about inaccessible red packets due to overly complex coupon mechanics—Li eventually apologized, saying "We won't do these 红包 next year—it's too stressful."

Other anti-consumer measures included requiring final payment locks to claim 红包—restricting refunds. Such tactics reveal the system's broken incentives.

04

Li's 2024 performance mirrors Tmall Beauty's struggles—8 of past 12 months saw year-on-year skincare declines, with 7 months of makeup/perfume drops.

Image: Tmall skincare/makeup sales performance over 12 months. Source: Qingyan Data

A year ago, discussions centered on whether Li should go multi-platform; today, despite 500 million yuan in incentives, he hasn't regained 2022's glory. Meanwhile, Douyin's beauty sector grew 75% without relying on mega-hosts.

This moment parallels 2016's pivotal livestream competition that launched Li and Taobao Beauty—except now, the harder stakeholders grasp, the faster their leverage slips away.

In hyper-competitive beauty e-commerce, stagnation equals regression.

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