BTC market analysis on the evening of 10.23

The following content was posted around 7 PM last night, transcribed from the community channel's voice message (thanks to 鼓鼓！):

As expected, Bitcoin's trend aligns with the second scenario we discussed yesterday, forming an ABC three-wave correction structure.

First, we can consider the previous five-wave rise as Wave A, followed by a sideways consolidation as Wave B. The structure of Wave B is relatively complex, forming a combined WXY pattern—I'll provide detailed annotations later. From the current trend, we're now in the downward Wave C.

From the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory, this correction is likely a zigzag pattern, as Wave B retraced about 38.2% of Wave A, fitting the typical zigzag retracement model.

Two key levels to watch:
- 66.2K: This is the 0.618 retracement level of Wave C relative to Wave A, a common support point.
- 65.2K: This is the 1:1 retracement level of Wave C relative to Wave A.

In terms of wave proportions, Wave C could retrace 0.618x, 1x, or even 1.618x of Wave A. If it extends to 1.618x, the downside could be deeper. But these two levels are clear short-term support zones.

What happens after Wave C completes?

Wave C might unfold as a five-wave decline. Once it finishes, the ABC correction will be complete. However, note that the end of ABC doesn’t necessarily mean the entire correction is over. This ABC could just be Wave A of a larger zigzag pattern, potentially followed by a strong Wave B rebound and then another Wave C decline to complete the full correction. Of course, we still have reliable methods to assess this.

To summarize, in the short term, we need to closely monitor the support levels at 66.2K and 65.2K. After the zigzag Wave C concludes, a rebound might follow, but further adjustments afterward can’t be ruled out.

As for how to identify a new uptrend, stay tuned for the next analysis～

$Strategy(MSTR.US) $Coinbase(COIN.US)