US stock live trading-20241027: Tech earnings season and the US election, the best strategy is to seek stability.

Summary:

This week, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.96%, while my actual portfolio value rose by 0.81%.

Year-to-date in 2024, the S&P 500 index has risen by 21.77%, and my actual portfolio value has increased by 13.26% (starting the year with a net value of 1.26, now at 1.43).

Trades:

Sold 50% of Apple (AAPL) and bought an equivalent amount of 2x gold;

Sold 25% of Petrobras (PBR) and bought an equivalent amount of MSTR.

Holdings:

Apple (AAPL) 9.1%, Microsoft (MSFT) 12.6%, Google (GOOGL) 14.8%, Petrobras (PBR) 9.3%, Bitcoin ETF 14.1%, MSTR 13.8%, 2x gold 22.9%, Hermès 3.4%, other/cash 0%.

Numbers are rounded, and positions below 1% are generally not recorded.

Review:

First, regarding trades: further increased positions in gold and MSTR, both of which are Trump-beneficiary concepts.

As for the choice of selling targets, I sold Apple (AAPL) directly at its new high. Over the past three years, I’ve made significant profits, so this is a phased profit-taking move. Unless it becomes extremely overvalued, I may never fully exit this stock. In the short to medium term, among the U.S. tech stocks in my portfolio, only Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) are the most expensive in terms of valuation, with expectations already fully priced in. So, I’ve fully exited one and halved the other, reallocating the proceeds entirely to 2x gold. If future earnings reports show significant improvements that bring valuations down, I may re-enter these positions. Otherwise, I won’t add to them in the short term. If opportunities arise, I’ll prioritize adding to Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

The increase in MSTR is just a minor adjustment. After assessing short-term odds, it’s a momentum-driven move. If short-term gains exceed expectations, I may exit and reallocate, especially since Petrobras (PBR) is also undervalued. MSTR is a crypto-trend stock that can’t be valued using traditional models, so it doesn’t appear in my valuation table with buy/sell points. Its performance entirely depends on Bitcoin’s movement. I’ll definitely exit if Bitcoin reaches $100K+, but between $60K-$100K, I’ll likely hold.

---

Other individual stocks:

1. Tesla (TSLA)

A rare surge, as Elon Musk provided more concrete timelines for his previously promised low-cost car and robotaxi.

At 12:24 AM Beijing time on October 24, Tesla released its Q3 2024 financial report. Tesla’s vehicle sales and revenue saw slight year-over-year growth, but matching 2023’s full-year deliveries will still require significant effort in Q4. Meanwhile, Musk stated during the earnings call that Tesla would abandon the rumored lower-priced Model 2.

I still can’t buy into this hype, mainly due to concerns about Musk’s focus on Tesla. Rockets, Trump, and Twitter seem to take higher priority, so I haven’t touched this stock this year. It’s also the only stock in my valuation table that has reached its sell price (though that doesn’t mean it won’t rise further—it’s just too expensive based on my calculations).

2. Apple (AAPL)

Q3 earnings are due next week. Based on available information, I expect the report won’t be bad but also unlikely to exceed expectations—in other words, it’s already priced in. My prediction: revenue and profits will slightly hit new highs, with high-end iPhones outperforming but low-end models underperforming. Other hardware sales will be mediocre, while value-added services may slightly exceed expectations. Dividends and buybacks will be unremarkable, and the stock is unlikely to surpass this week’s highs.

Next week, you can check back and compare how accurate my prediction was. Based on this outlook, I believe Apple’s short-to-medium-term returns may be similar to cash, which is why I chose to reallocate.

3. Microsoft (MSFT)

Earnings are due a day earlier than Apple’s, with focus on Azure and cloud services.

The stock has seen a significant pullback over the past two months, mainly because AI commercialization progress hasn’t exceeded expectations—from leading the pack to being gradually caught up. This earnings report is a major challenge.

However, given Nvidia’s recent disclosure of Microsoft’s massive procurement orders, demand is likely still strong. I’m cautiously optimistic about this report.

4. Google (GOOGL)

Among the major AI players, Google has faced the most challenges and issues, but it’s also the most undervalued. A turnaround could lead to explosive gains.

Based on information I’ve gathered, Google currently lacks a breakthrough product to stage a direct comeback via this earnings report. Most updates are about "planning," "preparation," or "coming soon." The next meaningful results might come with the Gemini 2.0 model in December.

5. Nvidia (NVDA)

On October 27, news broke that while demand for Nvidia’s next-gen AI chip, the GB200, is surging, the once-hot H100 is cooling off. An industry insider in computing resources revealed that H100-equipped servers are typically sold or leased as 8-card units. Last year, an 8-card server sold for over 3 million yuan; now, prices have dropped to 2.3-2.4 million yuan, "changing weekly."

Driven by strong demand for dedicated AI chips, Nvidia’s stock hit a record high on Friday, briefly overtaking Apple as the world’s most valuable company.

However, every time Nvidia’s market cap approaches Apple’s, it tends to pull back—largely because the market believes a "shovel seller" shouldn’t surpass the "shovel user," which defies economic logic.

6. Petrobras (PBR)

Jim Rogers, the legendary U.S. investor known as the "Commodity King," stated this week that the U.S. economy is nearing an "extremely severe" recession, which will drive investors toward precious metals.

Rogers also said, "If more wars are coming, you should buy some oil." He isn’t currently buying oil but hopes to "be smart enough to buy more if prices drop."

He added, "The oil market isn’t dead. I assure you, the world needs oil." This contrasts with some market expectations that global oil demand will gradually decline due to factors like EV adoption and climate policies.

7. Bitcoin & MSTR

Another failed attempt to break $70K this week. Crypto prices rose slightly before pulling back, and Monday doesn’t look promising either, as Bitcoin’s weekend trading was weak—likely due to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

But these are minor fluctuations. The real game-changer is the U.S. election, with both parties now crypto-friendly. Combined with expected stimulus, I remain bullish on Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook.

---

Finally, here’s the chart (values in USD):

---

This week’s selected stock research reports have been shared. A total of 7 reports, covering Tesla (TSLA), TSMC, Tencent, Longyuan Power, etc.

Special Disclaimer (Must Read):

1. The buy points, fair prices, and sell points in the chart above are calculated using my proprietary algorithm. There’s no universal formula, and they’re not absolute or guaranteed to be reached. They’re just tools to help me gauge current valuations.

2. If a price point has two values, the lower one is the floor and the higher one is the ceiling. Which one I use depends on my subjective judgment and understanding of the company—no fixed rule.

3. Blue and red highlights are personal reminders that a stock is near a buy/sell zone and requires close attention, but they don’t guarantee action.

4. The numbers in the table are adjusted periodically based on stock movements and my reassessment of companies. Don’t treat them as long-term references. Remember, even Buffett makes mistakes—let alone us mortals.

5. The table reflects my actual trades and is for my personal use. It’s not investment advice. Don’t ask me whether to buy or sell—take responsibility for your own money.

6. If you hold any of these stocks, feel free to discuss them with me in the comments. Point out my mistakes, and let’s learn and profit together.$Bitwise Bitcoin ETF(BITB.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)