$Li Auto(LI.US)'s valuation is highly dependent on the planning and layout of new product lines.

The market can only give a passable, not excellent, grade to quarterly reports with strong visibility, such as this quarter's Li Auto.

Additionally, like Pinduoduo, Li Auto is a growth-oriented company with no plans for share buybacks (though the CEO's quarterly incentives are indeed transparent). When pricing its stock, investors aren't looking at it from the perspective of a blue-chip company with high cash reserves: If you hold onto cash without making breakthroughs and only tell me you've cut costs and improved efficiency this year, become more cautious, and even laid off staff in new product lines, what happens if your "good boy" narrative falls apart by year-end? Yes, the problem probably won't occur, but if it does, do you really have no backup plan?

Li Auto faces numerous competitors, which is also a highly visible fact. The battlefield for purely home-use vehicles is no longer just about whether they are extended-range or not. Funds with investment needs in new energy don’t have to rush to buy the top three players like they would with the Magnificent 7 (Mag7) before a clear leader emerges—unless there’s already a monopolistic trend in the business, such as Tesla's production capacity, Google's search dominance, or Apple's ecosystem.

Or take new energy as an example: BYD and Tesla alone are enough to attract 80% of the market's investment firepower.

From a corporate operations perspective, none of these points really matter; it’s purely a discussion of expectation management. Li Auto will surely rise again, but it will move in line with the broader trend of Chinese concept stocks. For now, it’s a well-operated company, but it can’t be called high-growth—at least not until it becomes more confident in providing a feasible framework for its Shark strategy.

To put it simply, during the previous surge, many people were already valuing the potential of Shark models based on current delivery numbers. In essence, this is no different from the gamble on MEGA.

If you’re bullish on it, it’s best not to play the short-term game. The upside for the "Chinese concept + new energy" theme is limited, but the downside is a bottomless pit. If you really want to have fun, it’s better to pick a stock with high volatility and low valuation to avoid disappointment.