The most important stock on Earth, Nvidia, will release its earnings report. Analysis of options trading data suggests an expected 8% stock price fluctuation.

As of the previous trading day's close, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) rose nearly 5%, marking its largest single-day gain since September 11, with its market cap reclaiming $3.6 trillion. NVIDIA will release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. market closes on Thursday morning Beijing time. Market expectations peg revenue at $32.914 billion, a year-over-year growth of approximately 80%, with a gross margin of 75.01%. Despite recent reports of overheating technical issues potentially further delaying GB200 deliveries, demand for NVIDIA's AI chips remains insatiable.

Historical Earnings Volatility

Based on NVIDIA's stock performance after its last 8 earnings reports, the stock is highly sensitive to earnings, especially when the market is intensely focused on its growth potential. Major drivers of surges include outperforming expectations and optimistic guidance (e.g., the 24.4% gain in August 2023), while declines are often triggered by failing to fully meet lofty expectations (e.g., the -6.4% drop in August 2024). Overall, investor confidence in NVIDIA's growth-oriented business remains strong but is susceptible to earnings details and market sentiment.

Options Trading

According to options analysis firm ORATS, options traders currently anticipate an 8.5% swing in NVIDIA's stock price post-earnings, equivalent to a $300 billion market cap fluctuation.

ORATS founder Matt Amberson noted that NVIDIA's post-earnings volatility has historically been lower than market expectations. However, when volatility exceeds expectations, the stock tends to rise. Over the past 12 quarters, post-earnings volatility exceeded expectations 5 times, and in all 5 instances, the stock price climbed.

Additionally, Tipranks data suggests an expected 8.2% swing in NVIDIA's stock price, translating to a $12.04 per-share movement.

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL.US) $YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF(NVDY.US) $Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF(NVDD.US) $AXS 1.5X NVDA Bear Daily ETF(NVDS.US) $Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares(NVDU.US)