Likes Received
PostsNew Energy Vehicles: Changing the heart of the car cannot change the heart of the business; is intelligence the ultimate remedy? | Year-End Summary Series (6)
After repeated analyses of individual stocks in the automotive industry, Dolphin Jun increasingly believes that electrification cannot change the essence of the car manufacturing business; at most, it merely resets the distribution of interests within the industry chain.
Therefore, those who cannot produce cars early to seize the First Mover advantage, or who cannot achieve the advantage of planned customer acquisition in the internet space, often end up as the remains of pioneers in the second half of electrification.
On the other hand, the hexagonal warriors with money, stores, and resources, although they are latecomers, do not hinder them from surpassing others. In 2024, Huawei's Aito M9 and Xiaomi's SU 7 clearly convey the power of veterans returning to the field.
The industry ancestor Tesla's ability to drive its automotive gross margin down from 25% to 15% in 2024 once again verifies that the weak barrier attributes of the car manufacturing business itself lead to poor defensive capabilities when facing attacks from latecomers.
Thus, while there are no barriers to automotive electrification, can intelligence resolve the dilemma of cars as ultimate hardware? Under the original path of intelligent driving, Dolphin Jun's answer can be described as very conservative.
However, with the emergence of generative AI, Dolphin Jun's current attitude leans more towards "Sit and watch." As technological iterations become increasingly nonlinear, Dolphin Jun hopes that affordable smart cars will increasingly become the first choice for users when purchasing vehicles.
In this context, by 2025, Dolphin Jun has become increasingly pessimistic about automotive electrification itself, focusing more on placing the contradictions of industry or individual stock valuations on the advancement of intelligence.
In the second half of car manufacturing, without a qualitative change in intelligence, do not expect electrification to once again bring valuation increases for electric vehicle stocks. The next moment of a Davis double-click is likely to come from the turning point of intelligence.
Of course, the "single click" of intelligent valuation has already been reflected in Tesla's stock price. What we need to observe in 2025 is whether electric peers without Musk's charm and ability to paint visions can achieve a Davis double-click in intelligence. Can Tesla truly implement low-cost advanced autonomous driving in every vehicle by 2025? After removing Beta from FSD, can the generalization of scenarios and road conditions be that strong? What are the actual takeover counts like? As a product for C-end popularization, can the price be low enough under the condition of meeting technical standards?
Tesla, please do not go back on your word; await the true arrival of autonomous driving in 2025!
Annual Highlights Review:
《 “Vision Painter” Tesla has finally returned as the king!》
《 After nearly three years of loss, is XPeng finally making a comeback?》《 Automobile Fuel, Mobile Phone Warmth, Is Xiaomi Returning to the Pantheon?》
《 Tesla FSD: Can the Stars and Sea Withstand Reality Testing?》
《 The Ultimate Question, Can FSD Really Support a 15 Trillion Tesla?》
《 Tesla's "Secret Maneuver," Is the Robotaxi Story Just a "Facade"?》
Risk Disclosure and Statement of This Article: Dolphin Investment Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.