NVIDIA (NVDA) Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations

Comprehensive Technical Analysis

Trend and Patterns

Primary/Secondary Trend: Both in a downtrend (70% strength), with bearish patterns like head and shoulders (59.1% strength) and double top (69.5% strength), indicating significant short-term pressure.

Support/Resistance: Current price near the lower Bollinger Band (109.15), with a key support range at 113.01-133.83. Strong resistance lies between 143.44-153.13.

Indicator Signals

Moving Averages: Short-term MAs (5/10/20-day) are all below long-term MAs (60/120-day), confirming a bearish alignment.

MACD: After a death cross, DIF and DEA continue to decline, with expanding negative MACD bars, showing unabated bearish momentum.

RSI and KDJ: RSI6 (36.54) is in a neutral-to-weak zone, and the KDJ death cross suggests limited short-term oversold recovery potential.

Recent News Highlights

Bearish Factors

Demand Concerns: Market doubts about the sustainability of AI computing demand, coupled with supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory risks (e.g., French antitrust probe), have driven a 16% YTD stock decline.

Earnings Worries: Post-Q4 earnings drop, free cash flow missed expectations, and tariff policies may increase cost pressures.

Bullish Factors

GTC Conference Expectations: GB300 AI chip launch (with upgraded liquid cooling tech) on March 17-21 could catalyze a rebound.

Valuation Repair: Forward P/E dropped to 25x (near decade lows), with Bernstein and others calling current valuations attractive.

Trading Recommendations

Short-Term Strategy (1-4 Weeks)

Wait-and-See: Bearish technicals show no reversal; MACD and MAs lack stabilization signals. Await post-GTC clarity.

Aggressive Traders: Consider light longs if NVDA hits 113.01 support, with stops below 110 and targets at 129.51 (first resistance).

Mid-to-Long-Term Strategy (3-6 Months)

Accumulate on Dips: Monitor GTC’s Blackwell chip demand validation. Break above 143.44 resistance could justify adding positions, targeting Wall Street consensus of 177.41 (58.6% upside).

Risks: Watch for regulatory escalations (e.g., export curbs) and competitor breakthroughs (e.g., DeepSeek’s algorithm optimizations).

Key Events:

🔍 March 17 GTC product launch impact

🌐 U.S.-China-EU regulatory/tariff developments

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)