US stock live trading-20250323: Predict your prediction

Overview:

This week, the S&P 500 rose 0.51%, while my actual portfolio gained 0.89%.

Year-to-date in 2025, the S&P 500 has fallen 3.64%, and my actual portfolio has dropped 5.24% (starting NAV was 1.60, current NAV is 1.52).

Trades:

Sold all positions in NVIDIA

Holdings:

Google 22.3%, Petrobras 9.0%, Bitcoin ETF 18.4%, MicroStrategy 22.5%, Other/Cash 27.9%.

Numbers are rounded, and positions below 1% are generally not recorded.

Review:

First, about the trades. I had announced a phased reduction in positions last week, but the timing was moved up by one day.

The original plan was based on historical data, where NVIDIA typically rises around its conference. However, this time it coincided with the quadruple witching day and a mid-level correction in U.S. stocks. So, I sold during the pre-market rally on the day of NVIDIA's conference. Last week's report suggested a higher probability of 'sell the news.' But by Monday night, the stock started climbing—it felt just like the Chinese A-share market, where everyone anticipates others' moves and trades ahead. What was supposed to be a partial reduction turned into a full exit. I even regretted not trimming Google, as the Magnificent 7 stocks have been moving in sync recently.

That said, NVIDIA isn't overpriced right now, so I believe I'll re-enter within this year, possibly even in the first half. This adjustment could last as short as a month, aligning with the April earnings season, or as long as half a year, depending on the showdown between 'Master Trump' and 'Master Powell.' Trump might use every trick in the book—both within and outside the rules—to secure a win.

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Individual Stocks:

1. Tesla

According to Fortune, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is urging Americans to buy Tesla stock. The company is backed by Trump advisor Elon Musk. In a Fox News interview, Lutnick stoked fears of missing out on Tesla's rally, directly telling people to buy the stock because its price will only go up from here. This may violate ethical guidelines for government officials.

This is the second week of such hype, following Musk's own calls. While institutions haven't jumped in, retail investors and believers have, seemingly propping up the stock despite its downtrend. However, the fundamentals haven't improved: preliminary data from Dataforce shows Tesla sold only 25,852 EVs in Europe in January and February 2025, down 45% from 46,584 in the same period last year. The Model Y remains the top seller but saw a 53% drop to 14,773 units. Model 3 sales fell 26%, ranking sixth, while the Model S and Model X were nearly unsold, with just 272 units combined.

2. Apple

Cook is back in Beijing, hiking mountains to show goodwill. As a key global consumer market, and with recent policies encouraging spending, China is the obvious lifeline amid sluggish Western demand. But with recent product lines lacking appeal, the impact of this charm offensive is questionable.

Additionally, there's major executive shuffling:

Amid ongoing issues with Apple Intelligence and Siri, Apple is restructuring its AI leadership. This latest misstep may signal deeper troubles for the tech giant. Bloomberg reports CEO Tim Cook has 'lost confidence' in AI head John Giannandrea and has tasked Mike Rockwell, who led the Vision Pro (a commercial flop), with Siri's development. Rockwell will report to software chief Craig Federighi, while Giannandrea retains oversight of broader AI R&D.

3. Google

Google's $32 billion all-cash acquisition of cloud-native security platform Wiz marks the most valuable cybersecurity deal ever and a milestone for the company. Announced on March 18, the deal will fold Wiz into Google Cloud, positioning it as an investment in two growing trends: cloud security and multi-cloud environments in the AI era.

The market wasn't impressed, though, seeing the price as inflated and Google as overpaying.

Oh, and this week, Google and Apple got fined by the EU again:

1) The EU accused Google of favoring its own services in search results, violating the Digital Markets Act.

2) Apple was ordered to improve interoperability, allowing third-party innovation on its platforms.

4. NVIDIA

Jensen Huang's GTC keynote failed to turn the market around, as I predicted last week. The most intriguing part was Yann LeCun's speech, where the 'visionary' criticized mainstream 'language models': 'Like past trends, this one is wrong. Complex biological behaviors aren't language-based—they happen in mental spaces, not token spaces.'

He also threw shade at Huang: 'I disagree with Jensen. Current LLMs' reasoning methods are flawed.'

Looking ahead, he predicted: 'We're far from general AI, but it might arrive in a decade. Optical computing has been disappointing, and I'm skeptical about quantum computing.'

This was a direct rebuttal to Huang's new product announcements—quite the sabotage.

I'm no expert—whose view do you side with, LeCun's or Huang's?

6. Petrobras

Petrobras will go ex-dividend on April 22, 2025, paying $0.2503 per share. The stock has outperformed the market by 10%+ this year, thanks to improved fundamentals and the weak dollar. Last year's earnings were profitable in BRL but a loss in USD—Brazil's exchange rate is truly baffling.

7. Bitcoin ETF/MSTR

Crypto-related stocks and miners rallied after the Fed held rates steady. Powell's sudden dovish tilt sparked a mini-boom, but the timing was odd, contradicting the dot plot. It feels like Trump might be pulling strings behind the scenes. The unconventional move lacks momentum, raising fears of a 'pump and dump.' This year, crypto plays may require active trading, as historical patterns are being disrupted.

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Valuation Table (USD):

Notes (Must Read):

1. The buy/neutral/sell points above are calculated using my proprietary method—not absolute truths, just tools for gauging current valuations.

2. Dual values indicate a range; the choice depends on my subjective judgment of the company.

3. Blue/red highlights signal when a stock nears key zones, but don't guarantee action.

4. Numbers are adjusted periodically based on my evolving analysis—don't treat them as long-term benchmarks.

5. This is my personal trading diary, not financial advice. If you ask whether to buy something, the answer is no.

6. Fellow holders, feel free to critique my takes in the comments—let's learn and profit together.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)