$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) is expected to lower its 2025 revenue growth guidance to around 20%. The market seems to be pricing in 15-20% growth. If the new guidance is 20-25% (low 20%), it would likely exceed expectations.

From my observation, TSMC tends to be a conservative company. For example, in Q1, they lowered their revenue guidance to the lower end of the previous range of 250-258, close to 250, while the actual result was 255. This has happened multiple times before, so I think there's a 60% chance that their actual full-year revenue will be slightly higher than the new guidance they provide tomorrow.

My personal view: After all the recent fluctuations, I've revised down TSMC's 2025 revenue growth forecast to 21.8% YoY, reaching $109.7 billion, with net profit growth of 29% to $47.1 billion. Note that actual results are almost always equal to or higher than management's guidance. So if the company guides for around 20%, it might actually achieve 23-24%. If they guide for 15-20%, it could be 18-21%.

Of course, to be honest, with Trump's policies and uncertain tariff impacts, there's still a lot of uncertainty. Even TSMC's management can't be entirely clear. Therefore, the company will likely provide guidance based on a wide range of scenarios, choosing a conservative estimate.

Based on my standards, revenue growth would be 21.8% to $110 billion, with net profit at $47 billion. At yesterday's closing price of $157 (market cap of $816 billion), and assuming a 4% drop tonight to $151 (market cap of $783.4 billion), the 2025 P/E would be 16.7x.