Powell has completely turned against Trump this time. To put it bluntly, the Fed is desperately guarding the lifeline of U.S. bond credit, while Trump's tariff hammer has crushed U.S. stocks (especially tech stocks). Now, with the Fed holding a $7.2 trillion balance sheet and not daring to act recklessly, the 10-year Treasury yield has soared to 4.5%, and mortgage rates have broken 7%. Cutting rates to save the stock market now? The U.S. bond market could collapse in front of your eyes, and the foundation of dollar hegemony would crack.

In contrast, Trump's tariff moves have directly crippled sectors with the deepest globalization, like semiconductors—NVIDIA lost $5.5 billion due to the ban, AMD's orders were halved, and even ASML's Chinese orders collapsed, forcing the emergence of a "de-globalization valuation black hole."

Now, retail investors either team up with big players to speculate on "policy-immune stocks" like oil and arms, or treat gold as a safe haven, watching these two old men battle. As the saying goes, the third quarter will reveal the truth: either China and the U.S. stop slashing each other, or U.S. economic data explodes, forcing Powell to cut rates with tears. But no matter the outcome, the gilded facade of dollar hegemony has long been peeling off.