The U.S. stock market has rebounded sharply. Can we really make money this time?

To be honest, given this year's market conditions, shelly thinks breaking even would already count as a major win. Since February, the US stock market has been as stagnant as a puddle, but these past couple of days, Trump suddenly changed his tune and told Powell "you are not fired," which the market immediately took as a huge positive and started speculating on—a classic case of "lip service rally." The US market has pulled off three consecutive big green candles, with the Nasdaq almost touching the high of that massive green candle from April 9th, though there's definitely resistance ahead.

Over in Hong Kong, the market has also rebounded alongside US stocks, further boosted by policy tailwinds and positive news from the auto sector, leading to a broad-based rally. The Hang Seng Index has already filled half the gap left from April 7th and hit the 20-day moving average yesterday. shelly has been saying all along that if the Hang Seng reaches this level, it's time to consider gradually reducing positions—don't get greedy for that last sip of soup. Plenty of people didn’t listen last year, only to end up holding the bag at the top, not just giving back profits but also losing a chunk of their principal.

Right now, everyone’s most concerned about the US-China tariff issue, with daily rumors about whether Trump will stir the pot. His sudden softening has been hailed as a big positive by the market, but the reality is far more complicated. On one hand, he’s trying to ease financial market pressure and inject some confidence; on the other, he’s creating the illusion of positive negotiation progress to seize both the initiative and the narrative advantage. Once he gets what he wants, don’t be surprised if he suddenly flips and resumes maximum pressure on China. Let’s not forget, this flip-flopping is his signature move. A real turning point in the tariff war requires concessions from both sides—just a few soft words from the US means nothing. US Treasury Secretary Yellen has also said a broader agreement might take one to two years. This won’t be resolved quickly, so keep that in mind.

Since March, shelly has repeatedly warned against heavy positions given the market’s extreme volatility. For trading strategies, now that both Hong Kong and US stocks have rebounded to resistance levels, my old advice stands: keep positions light + day trading, and only hold the most reliable long-term picks. In Hong Kong, focus on consumer goods, NEVs, and semiconductors—names like Xiaomi, Alibaba, and POP MART—given policy support and solid supply chains. For US stocks, I’m sticking with blue chips like Tesla, NVIDIA, Eli Lilly, and Walmart. Frankly, this year, tech stocks are only good for swing trades—don’t dream of a long bull run. US stocks in 2024 will rely on blue chips and defensive consumer plays for stability; tech is just for some extra flair.

In short, the market works like this: when good news hits, the FOMO crowd piles in, and most end up holding the bag at the top. shelly’s advice is to control your position size, master buying low and selling high—even if your swings aren’t perfect, preserving capital means you’ll still profit when the next rally comes. Right now, risk management is king. After over a decade in the markets, my biggest lesson is this: the market never runs out of opportunities—what’s scarce is capital and the mindset to survive. $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)