Powell admits mistake, is the real crisis yet to come? What's my next move on NVIDIA?

Last night, U.S. stocks continued their volatile pattern, with major indices showing a trend of opening lower and rising higher. The NASDAQ 100 edged up 0.08%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.41%, and the Dow performed the best with a 0.65% gain. Notably, tech giants faced collective pressure last night, forming a stark contrast to the previous day's market structure. The S&P 500 staged a V-shaped reversal during the day, ultimately closing with a lower shadow and a positive candle, but trading volume contracted compared to the previous day.

The three most noteworthy events last night were Powell's remarks, as well as the earnings reports from Alibaba and Walmart.

First, on the macro front, Powell admitted yesterday that his framework had failed and that the Fed is preparing for a comprehensive shift in the future. Additionally, he pointed out that supply chain shocks would persist long-term and continue to push up the inflation core. Although April's CPI and PPI data looked good, with inflation well under control, what can one month really prove? We'll need to see the data for the next 3-6 months.

This assessment was also confirmed during Walmart's earnings call. As a retail giant controlling 8-9% of the U.S. retail market share and a quarter of the grocery channels, Walmart executives bluntly stated they would launch an unprecedented price hike—this is a real issue involving 'money,' and the company isn't joking. The CFO explicitly said: "Although we lead the industry in handling tariff costs, at a 30% tariff level, end prices will need to rise by at least 10%. Walmart cannot absorb all the pressure alone, and some products will see price adjustments this month." This statement is a bellwether, considering Walmart controls one-third of the U.S. online grocery market share. Its pricing strategy adjustments will inevitably directly impact the U.S. consumer basket, meaning Americans will need to tighten their belts.

Next up, Alibaba didn’t bring any relief either. Its latest quarterly report showed that both cloud revenue and capital expenditures fell short of expectations—two metrics the market considers core to its valuation—leading to a 7.5% plunge in its U.S.-listed ADRs. Some might ask, isn’t AI just a side business for Alibaba? Why are investors only focusing on this? Well, because investing is all about future potential! If the future narrative isn’t compelling, then...

Now, let’s look at my NVDA holdings! A few days ago, I mentioned taking some profits, and yesterday I cleared 60% of my trading position. I won’t be making any moves soon, given the recent positive news has left NVDA with three gaps—gaps always get filled—so I’ll wait for the second gap to re-enter.

I’ll share updates on my other holdings later—got something else to attend to now.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Walmart(WMT.US)