Never expected that the greenshoe option was exhausted in just one day!

The downside of public accounts is that they can only push once a day, so a lot of content loses its timeliness. This post doesn’t count toward the push limit, and theoretically, it won’t be pushed unless you’ve starred the account. I wonder how many people will actually read it.

Last night’s trading report estimated the greenshoe situation—looks like it’s all used up. Normally, the stabilizer has 30 days to exercise the greenshoe, but CMB wrapped it up on the first day. They really tried their best, but with retail investors dumping 600 million worth of shares, there was just no way to hold it up. That’s why, after watching the market for just 10 minutes this morning and seeing over half the greenshoe already used, I immediately wrote this post to share my thoughts and started offloading my position.

Some friends asked if the stock could bounce back. Nothing’s impossible, but the chances are slim. In a fully market-driven scenario, few free investors would touch this stock. If the company wants to maintain its market cap, it’d need to pump the price by at least 80% to meet inclusion standards. Do you know how much that would cost? Given the financial state of this "green tea" company, they can’t afford it. Now, let’s talk about CATL and Hengrui. CATL’s lottery rate for one lot is around 6%, with a guaranteed lot for big bids at 26,300 yuan. The big bid lottery rate is about 0.6%, and as I predicted earlier, it won’t exceed 1%, capping at around 50,000 yuan in value—pretty much as expected. Some people obsess over the AH premium/discount, and I used to care too. But after playing this game long enough, I realized the AH spread doesn’t really correlate strongly. They’re essentially two different markets with separate valuation systems. So don’t stress over the premium/discount. Even if CATL’s H-shares trade at a premium to its A-shares, I wouldn’t be surprised. Both CATL and Hengrui are high-probability, low-reward IPO plays, but Hengrui’s certainty is lower than CATL’s. Even though Hengrui offers a bigger discount, that doesn’t matter much. Many friends still don’t get my "high-probability, low-reward" concept for IPOs. Take CATL as an example: the chance of it breaking issue price is extremely low, and even if it does, the greenshoe will likely bail it out. But the first-day pop probably won’t exceed 10%, maybe even capping at 7-8%. This is just for the first day—I’m still bullish on CATL long-term. Even HKEX seems to favor CATL, giving it monthly options right after listing and even weekly options by June, boosting derivative market liquidity.

I usually use options as a supplementary tool—either to hedge my stock positions or to enhance returns. For hedging, I go with collar strategies; for boosting returns, I sell covered calls. I always keep some cash or shares as a safety net. For example, here’s my Xiaomi play from March.

Here’s April’s.

And May’s. May’s not settled yet, so I’ve blurred it.

All this is backed by my Xiaomi stock position and some cash reserves. Options are risky—don’t overextend beyond your cash or stock safety net. Why do I say HKEX favors CATL? Xiaomi’s been listed for years, with a trillion-yuan market cap and top-10 liquidity among Hang Seng Tech stocks, yet it still doesn’t have weekly options. Monthly options have poor liquidity and often misprice. HKEX could learn from the U.S.—SPY even has daily options with superb liquidity. Someone asked about A-share options? I almost unleashed my "primordial rage"! Only index ETF options in A-shares have decent liquidity; index options are weak, and single-stock options don’t even exist. It’s a mess.

Since launching this circle, from Maogeping onward, my IPO and secondary market plays have had a near-100% win rate.