老顽童投资漫谈
2025.05.30 00:52

On May 30th, the Hang Seng Index's mid-month bullish candlestick is set, likely ending the seven-week winning streak. After three consecutive weeks of narrow fluctuations, this week's closing has indicative significance.

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Yesterday, boosted by the positive news of a U.S. court halting Trump's tariff policy, the Hong Kong stock market rose throughout the day, closing near the day's high.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) closed up 315 points, a gain of 1.35%, at 23,573 points, with a turnover of HKD 226.8 billion. The trading volume increased compared to the previous day but remained at a moderate level recently. From a daily chart perspective, this K-line appears strong, giving a sense of upward momentum. However, considering the performance of index futures and global markets, today's outlook is not optimistic. It is expected to open lower, with 23,300 and 23,200 points being tested.
$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) surged 127 points, a gain of 2.46%, closing at 5,301 points, significantly outperforming the broader market. Some tech stocks showed strong rebound momentum, driving the index higher. After opening lower today, it will quickly test 5,200.

Hang Seng Index futures were quite weak, with a discount of over 200 points. Yesterday's bullish candle did not break the sideways range. Affected by the U.S. market's rally and subsequent pullback, the futures also pulled back after the spot market closed, with the night session closing at 23,207 points, continuing the downward trend and reflecting a 366-point discount to the spot market, indicating high expectations for a further decline.


In terms of strategy, maintain the previous view of light positions. Wait for mid-term opportunities and remain cautious in the short term.

Southbound capital has seen net inflows into the financial sector for three consecutive days while reducing holdings in tech stocks. Following the moves of smart money, we can take cues.

 


$MEITUAN(03690.HK) rebounded strongly, closing up 6.62% at HKD 140.1, likely due to short covering. This wave is indeed regrettable. While a rebound after testing 125 was anticipated, the form was unexpected—a sharp low open followed by a rapid rally, catching many off guard. Chasing highs is not advisable; opportunities near 120 will surely come, so no rush.
$KUAISHOU-W(01024.HK) showed stronger momentum, closing up 5% at HKD 54.2, a catch-up rally. Resistance is at 55, and a pullback in line with the broader market is expected.
$BABA-W(09988.HK) rebounded 2%, closing at HKD 118.1, remaining weak and consolidating. Further declines are expected today, possibly breaking below 115.
$BYD COMPANY(01211.HK) opened lower and broke down again, falling below HKD 400 before recovering to close down 0.25% at HKD 406. After consolidating around 400 for a few days, further declines are expected. Quick intraday trades are feasible.
$SMIC(00981.HK) rose 1.47% to HKD 41.4, with the moving average system showing a bearish alignment. We’ll reconsider below 400.
$POP MART(09992.HK) rebounded 4.3% to HKD 225 after a sharp drop the previous day. This upward move will have limited support; don’t underestimate the significance of the K-line on the 28th.
Be wary of liquidity shocks triggered by Friday's MSCI rebalancing.

 

$S&P 500(.SPX.US) 

$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US)  

$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) 

$FI2 CSOP HSI(07500.HK) 

$Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US) 

$CSOP UST20(03433.HK) 

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)

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