On June 3rd, the S&P 500 is in a wedge consolidation with gradually narrowing volatility, awaiting a directional breakout.
Last night, U.S. stocks generally fell at the opening, with market concerns about a potential resurgence of trade wars and deepening tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war heating up. However, news during the session that Trump would speak with Chinese leaders later this week eased market sentiment, leading to a rebound in indices. The market reacted sensitively to "negotiation expectations," reflecting the game theory mindset that "talking is better than not talking." Short-term sentiment was significantly driven by news.
The Fed's policy expectations suggest a 5% probability of a rate cut in June and only about 25% in July, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September remains relatively high.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) rose 35 points to close at 42,305. The daily chart shows three consecutive doji candles with lower shadows, indicating a very indecisive market. A long upper shadow bearish candle would be ideal.
$S&P 500(.SPX.US) rose 24 points, up 0.41%, closing at 5,935. The wedge consolidation shows narrowing volatility, with a possibility of a false breakout upward followed by a reversal downward. Be cautious.
$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) rose 0.67%, up 128 points, closing at 19,242. The tech sector performed the strongest, but low volume is a concern. Technically, there are no bearish signals yet. Hedging is acceptable, but shorting is generally not recommended unless you're skilled in short-term trading, and chasing longs also offers poor risk-reward.
Currently, there isn't much upside potential for the indices, so caution is advised in trading. The risk of losing $5 for every $0.50 gained is real. The first half of June is likely a time to take a break.
U.S. Dollar Index: Fell below the key support level of 98.9 again, hitting a low of 98.58 during the session and closing at 98.80. A short-term stabilization is expected; avoid chasing shorts.
USD/JPY is in a downtrend. After a weak rebound, it will continue to fall, potentially breaking below 140.
Bitcoin rose to $106,000, consolidating on low volume. The outlook remains bearish. There are still some shorts on Dogecoin.
$Apple(AAPL.US) is struggling around 200. Another limited break below 200 is likely. Wait for opportunities near 170-180.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) hit a low of $333 during the session, rebounded to test resistance at 345, then continued downward.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) rose 1.67%, closing at $137.38. Short-term support at 135 holds, with a medium-term target of $110.
$Broadcom(AVGO.US) rose 2.74%, closing at $248.71. Pre-market gains continue, with strong performance possibly due to positive earnings expectations. However, declining volume is a concern, and chasing highs offers poor risk-reward.
$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)
$CSOP UST20(03433.HK)
$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)
$FI2 CSOP HSI(07500.HK)
$Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US)
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