$AMD(AMD.US)0813

Short-term trading:

If the opening price stabilizes above $175 with increased volume, consider going long with a light position, target $180; if it falls below $171, stop loss and observe.

Mid-term strategy:

Monitor MI350 chip shipment data and Q3 earnings gross margin. If policy costs are controllable and AI revenue share increases, consider building positions in batches within the $160-165 range.

Hedging strategy:

Buy $175 call options (AMD20250815C175) while selling $185 call options to lock in profits and reduce time decay risk.

Conclusion: Volatile with a bullish bias, breakout requires volume support

Today, AMD stock is likely to fluctuate between $170-$180, with a 60% probability of breaking the previous high of $182.50, depending on:

1. Market digestion of the "15% licensing tax";

2. Overall sentiment in the semiconductor sector (watch Nvidia and Intel movements);

3. Impact of southbound capital on Hong Kong tech stocks (correlation with the Hang Seng Tech Index).

Risk warning: If Sino-US tariff policies change or the US stock market corrects, be wary of profit-taking pressure at high levels.