On August 26, Powell gave a strong boost. Will NVIDIA pull the rug out? Today, it continued with a small bearish candle.

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On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indices did not extend their strong performance, showing a volatile adjustment trend. The economic data released during the day, including the July PCE inflation data and the revised Q2 GDP, were mixed. Coupled with the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields due to supply pressure from bond auctions, market risk appetite cooled. The three major indices opened slightly lower, attempted to rebound during the session but weakened in the afternoon, ultimately ending with slight declines, erasing some of last Friday's gains.

$S&P 500(.SPX.US) closed at 5,639 points, down 0.43%,

$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) closed at 21,449 points, down 0.22%,

$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) closed at 45,282 points, down 0.77%.

Trading was light as investors focused on two key catalysts this week—Nvidia's report (after Tuesday's close) and the July PCE price index (released Friday).
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia's earnings report is a "barometer" for tech stocks, with potential volatility of $2-400 billion. As the largest component of the S&P 500 with a nearly 8% weighting, Nvidia's earnings performance directly impacts the tech sector and the broader U.S. stock market.

The market generally expects its Q2 EPS to surge 48% YoY to $1.08, with revenue reaching $45.9 billion (up 112% YoY).

Options pricing suggests Nvidia's stock could swing nearly 6% post-earnings (a market cap fluctuation of over $250 billion), enough to move the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

Key points to watch: whether earnings exceed expectations (especially data center and AI chip demand); China shipment prospects (actual sales under U.S. export controls); more details on the "15% revenue sharing agreement" (rumored "voluntary" terms).

Recent price action shows significant selling pressure above $180. From a game theory perspective, market expectations are high. Unless earnings are exceptionally strong, the market is more likely to interpret them as neutral or slightly negative, with a higher probability of a stock price decline. A high open could also lead to a low close, as seen with $Microsoft(MSFT.US).

For medium- to long-term holdings, it's time to reduce positions, keeping less than half for potential gains. Short-term traders should take a break.

The fear index rose slightly, moving above 15, reflecting increased hedging ahead of Nvidia's earnings and PCE data. Market sentiment remains mild but cautious.

Bitcoin fell for the third consecutive day amid rumors of large-scale BTC sell-offs, breaking below the neckline at 112,000. Technically, further declines are expected, with a potential target of 80,000.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks fell broadly, with $Bullish(BLSH.US) down 8%, erasing half of Thursday and Friday's gains. Further declines are expected, with a medium-term entry point around 40.

$Circle(CRCL.US) showed weak support at 130, sliding toward the 105-115 range. Consider adding small positions there.
Cryptocurrencies appear to be accelerating their mid-term retreat. Short-term participation is not recommended. For such volatile assets, it's better to wait for a cold, low period before re-engaging.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) is back at the top of its range. We expect continued range-bound trading—sell high, buy low. No other ideas for now.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) is currently best analyzed using our trend signals. During the uptrend, bullish signals were maintained. After the adjustment began, adjustment signals persisted. Patience is key. Short-term support is around 495.

$Fortinet(FTNT.US) is under the 10-day moving average, potentially forming a double bottom amid broader market adjustments. Consider testing positions around 70.

$Intel(INTC.US) faces significant resistance above 26 and needs time to digest. An entry point below 22 would be ideal. Be more aggressive in operations.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) will consolidate for a few days. Opportunities above 60 remain unchanged.

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) is in a tight range. Wait patiently. Add positions at 290-280, reduce at 320-350, and maintain some medium-term holdings.

Fund flows show that after Powell's speech last Friday, some capital shifted from tech to financials, energy, and cyclical stocks, indicating early sector rotation. If Nvidia's earnings disappoint, tech outflows could accelerate.

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly approached 4.3%, mainly due to this week's $211 billion Treasury auction (starting with $69 billion in 2-year notes on Tuesday). Supply pressure weighed on bond prices. However, the market generally views this as short-term repositioning to make room for Fed rate cuts, not a trend reversal—if yields break 4.3%, the Fed may cut rates to counter, likely pushing yields lower. $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) Hold and consider increasing allocations.


 

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