Jiaxin International's dark pool doubled. Where is the reasonable price range?

Yesterday, $JIAXIN INTL RES(03858.HK) opened 50% higher in the dark pool, and unlike the previous few stocks, although there was a brief pullback midway, it did not plummet after rising later, finally closing up 103%.

Congratulations to those who got the lottery or bought at low prices, earning enough for more than a dozen meals!

Recently, except for particularly good stocks like Mixue and Yingen, I’ve been trying to sell in the dark pool immediately.

So, does Jiaxin count? Unlike Shuangdeng, which has a 3.5-star fundamental rating and relies on issuance structure, insider information, and margin multiples to piece together a five-star rating, I directly concluded on the second day of subscription that this stock was a five-star, very simple and brutal.

Friends who know me well know that I usually play it safe, giving the final rating on the second-to-last day of subscription based on the current margin, rarely being so aggressive in my conclusions, which shows how bullish I was on this stock.

But I didn’t wait for this stock—I sold it at 21.5 within a minute of the dark pool opening. The reason? On one hand, I was scared by the previous few stocks, failing to align my actions with my beliefs (deep reflection); on the other hand, I had a rough price target in mind, with a reasonable increase around 100%.

Based on the valuation comparison in my analysis of Jiaxin International’s IPO, I believe Jiaxin International has a small resource volume but advantages in policy and mineral resource quality, so its valuation multiple is roughly 360-400x, corresponding to an increase of about 89%-109%. That’s why I sold at 21.5 to play it safe (with only one lot, I couldn’t sell in batches).

But as you can see, today Jiaxin continued to rise on its first day, now at 24.5, up 125%!

Logically, resource stocks like this shouldn’t deviate too far from reasonable prices, as these companies don’t have the same imagination space as biotech stocks—their valuations are strongly tied to resource volume, mining efficiency, and mineral quality. And since this is a "correct" stock without manipulation, why is it rising so much?

Then I realized I made a fatal mistake: the valuation assessment was done on the first day of the IPO, and crucially, tungsten stocks have been surging since then!

From last Wednesday to now, Xiamen Tungsten +7.3%, China Tungsten High-Tech +4.2%, Zhangyuan Tungsten +38.6%, Xianglu Tungsten +9.7%.

Excluding the obviously erratic Zhangyuan Tungsten, the average increase is about 8%. New stocks are more elastic, so they could rise 10-20%.

Based on the previous upper limit, the reasonable increase would be around 120%-130%, corresponding to a price of 24-25.1.

Of course, it’s rare to have a good stock that continues to rise on its first day, and it might keep rising due to sentiment—for example, in the time it took me to write these six paragraphs, it’s already at 26.

So, the valuation is just my personal opinion, for reference only. Don’t send me knives if you sold too early, but I really don’t recommend chasing above 26—it’s quite risky.

But for such a bull stock, I don’t understand why so many people wrote negative posts before the IPO, saying it would break and advising against subscribing. If you didn’t get the lottery and are venting, fine, but why start bashing from the beginning? Do you really not understand the company, or is there another agenda? Especially this post—it made me laugh.

This was sent to me by a friend. My response was (the part about the parent company refers to the cornerstone investor, a typo):

Even for garbage fundamentals like Zhonghui, I told everyone to subscribe given the high margin. Jiaxin has excellent fundamentals, Mechanism B with 10% clawback, state-owned enterprise backing, policy support, thousand-fold margin—almost flawless in every aspect. How could these people call for a break? Are they out of their minds?

Seems like when there’s disagreement, our analysis is still quite valuable (though I still don’t get where this disagreement comes from).