Is the US stock market going to decline and interest rates going to decrease? Anyway, trading has already taken the lead.
Hello everyone, I'm Dolphin Jun from Changqiao, and here are the weekly market portfolio strategies. The key information is as follows:
1) The banking crisis continues to unfold, but at present, it is unclear where the asset quality has gone wrong in addition to the outflow of liabilities in Credit Suisse. However, the crisis in the US banking industry is still a liquidity problem, which can be avoided by injecting liquidity through regulatory agencies to prevent a large-scale collapse of the balance sheet.
2) Last week, the logic of market interest rate reduction and valuation repair after the injection of liquidity into the banking industry by the Federal Reserve in the United States was flawed according to Dolphin Jun. If the banking industry does not explode after the injection of liquidity, the situation of easing employment contradictions or the slow decline of income statement may occur. However, rapid interest rate reduction under such circumstances may lead to a discounted anti-inflation effect. The result of a compromise between policy goals and harsh reality may very likely be a "stagnant inflation" situation, but the market trades at a declining + valuation repair.
3) Dolphin Jun believes that unless the banking trust crisis spreads out of control, the possible path is: injecting liquidity + slowing down interest rate hikes (adding another 25 basis points with the basic interest rate remaining around 4.78%), but still maintaining high interest rates for a period of time, so that the employment market contradictions can be significantly eased, instead of the market's current expectation of directly entering the interest rate reduction status in June of this year. Therefore, it may be necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a stock market correction caused by the subsequent rise in yield.
4) This week, Chinese concept stocks will enter the intensive financial report season. Apart from the already released Pinduoduo, companies such as Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi will also issue financial reports. In addition, the leading consumption stocks in the Hong Kong stock market such as Anta, China Resources, and Jiukaonow will also report their performance. At present, the only hopeful company among the Chinese concept stocks, Pinduoduo, has also slowed down, and the only hope for performance among the remaining giants may be on Tencent. Therefore, it is worthwhile to pay attention to whether Tencent's this quarter or subsequent guidance can exceed market expectations.
The following is the detailed content:
I. Banking Industry: Trust Crisis is Still Unfolding
Last week, Dolphin Jun mentioned in the strategy weekly report "Silicon Valley Bank Run Crisis: Will the US recession run to the scene?" that the rapid explosion and rapid resolution behind the Silicon Valley Bank Run crisis implies that after the SVB incident, the steady net outflow of deposits in the entire US banking system and the more than 600 billion yuan of paper losses of fixed-income investment accounts, small and medium-sized banks need to consider asset allocation structure more prospectively, such as financing and share expansion, tightening credit, etc., to improve the actual capital adequacy ratio, especially tightening credit will bring about interest rate reduction effect.
However, a series of problems did indeed occur subsequently:
- In the process of solving the first Republic Bank crisis, the 30 billion yuan emergency deposit plan of the US Bank Heavenly Group failed to solve the trust crisis and may have to be increased by shareholders. However, the latest Credit Suisse crisis appears to be resolved. This plan directly writes down and confiscates the emergency convertible bonds. The interest and principal of bondholders are all cleared. Although Credit Suisse's valuation for shareholders has been discounted, it has not been cleared at least. On the order of repayment, bondholders are still after shareholders, which not only has compliance problems in sequence, but also causes a large drop in the price of such emergency convertible bonds on the market. Substantially Dragging the Capital Adequacy of the Banking System Again.
However, so far, other than the continuous outflow of deposits on the liability side, it is currently not clear which area of the asset side is the bigger problem for Credit Suisse. But for the US banking industry, the ultimate risk still lies in the problem assets that point to the sky-high national debt and the risk of government bond yields. In this economic cycle, the quality of loan assets is better than that of fixed-income products such as bonds.
Second, Inflation Improves and Retail is Stable.
The relatively stable credit asset quality reflects that the real economy is still sound. This week's retail data also confirms this: the US economy is driven by consumer spending and private business investment, and there are two dimensions of data observations on consumption. One is retail data (physical retail + catering) counted from the perspective of corporate sales, similar to social retail data in China, and the other is personal consumption expenditure data counted from the perspective of consumer spending.
1) Stable Retail: Generally speaking, the retail growth rate in the United States has been around 4%, considering the CPI growth rate of 2%, the real retail growth rate and GDP growth are basically the same. However, after entering the era of post-pandemic recovery, most of the time has been above 8%, and only recently has it just fallen back to around 6%, but the January data has surged again, and the year-on-year growth rate has accelerated to 8%.
Fortunately, the retail growth rate in February returned to the range of 5-6%, with a growth of 5.6%, with a monthly retail sales of 611.4 billion US dollars. In terms of categories, the United States is also dominated by food and beverage, and the social retail sales of this type are still growing rapidly on a large scale; daily necessities are a restorative growth after the epidemic, while e-commerce-based storeless vendors are growing significantly.
In terms of overall category growth, it is reflected in the fact that the growth of necessities is good and the growth of optional items is slow. Apart from the year-on-year decline of gasoline and gas, which is caused by the drop in bulk prices, the poor performance of most other categories is optional, such as automobiles and parts, furniture, decoration, and digital home appliances.
2) CPI: Labor Inflation is Ongoing, but Other Inflation is Easing
In terms of February's CPI, the seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase was 0.4% (the year-on-year increase was 4.91%), which was slightly lower than the peak of 0.5% in the previous quarter. The main reason was the inflation of energy prices rebounded in January but fell back in February.
Looking at the trend of core goods and service prices, which can be influenced through demand: for commodity prices, except for clothing and tobacco, other price increases are not significant, especially the significant depreciation of second-hand cars with high weight, driving commodities towards definite disinflation progress.
For service inflation, except for the old problem of living costs needing to wait for new rental prices to catch up with market prices, the key service inflation items highly correlated to human resources, entertainment, and other personal services, still have relatively high price growth rates, both exceeding 1% on a month-on-month basis, but they have a low weight in CPI statistics and do not have a significant impact on the overall market. **
The CPI inflation rate (seasonally adjusted) that doesn't consider food, energy and housing is still 0.2% (corresponding to an annualized same-period growth rate of 2.4%), and the same-period growth rate continues to fall to 3.7%, which is already considered a controllable risk.
The inflation pressure reflected in February has significantly improved compared with the inflation counterattack in January. Considering that the current policy interest rate has reached 4.75%, and the annualized same-period growth rate of CPI inflation after removing food, energy, and housing factors has been stable within 2.4% for five consecutive months.
In other words, as long as the high-interest rate and tight-credit environment are maintained and the housing price does not rebound, the maximum interest rate can be raised by 25 to 50 basis points, and the corresponding actual federal basic interest rate should be between 4.75% and 5%. This can basically cover the current core CPI annualized same-period growth rate (both December and January were 5%, and February was 5.6%), allowing the real interest rates for core inflation to gradually become positive.
Third, the "high-speed" recession logic has led the market to the edge of over-correction
The latest economic data has been mediocre, and the risks of the banking industry are indeed continuing, but observing the market trends last week, it was not in a state of universal decline. In this week of panic in the global market, the market began to celebrate good news and trade based on the "recession, interest-rate cuts and market valuations increase" logic. The rate sensitivity indices, Nasdaq and Hang Seng Technology, performed remarkably well last week, and the speed of transition and magnitude of the gains were rare recently.
Firstly, the yield of various types of U.S. bonds have dropped across the board, reflecting an explicit expectation of interest-rate cuts and a recession. Especially noteworthy is the rapid decline in short-term government bond yields, which were previously relatively stable, implying an obvious expectation of interest-rate cuts:
Before March 8th, the six-month and one-year US bond yields, which were in a soaring state, plummeted after the Silicon Valley Bank time, and the one-year yield dropped higher. Combining with the peak of the six-month government bond yield, it implies that there will be just a 25 basis point interest-rate hike within half a year and then begin a 50 basis point interest-rate cut.
The implicit interest rate adjustment pace in the government bond market transaction is basically consistent with the implied interest rate adjustment pace of the fed fund futures: At the two-rate hikes this year, 25 basis points interest-rate hike in March and no more hikes in May, entering the interest-rate cut channel formally in June, reducing the rate to 3.7% by year-end. ** In the current silent period of the US Federal Reserve, the speed and extent of market expectations are astonishing.
Under this expectation, the yield of national bonds quickly fell to 3.39%, and it had fallen to the lowest point of the last round of yield callback in just two weeks.
However, in Dolphin's view, unless there is a further flash crash problem in the banking industry, considering that the US economy is still stable, and the space for further downward trend in the short term is limited, it will instead turn upward. It can be seen that the first trading day of this week has begun to rise.
If these pieces of information are put together, one problem will be discovered: In this wave of banking crises, the assets in trouble are US government bonds, but unlike loan assets, government bonds hardly have any default risks. Only the banking industry has the money, and they will not lose money if they can manage to hold them until maturity.
Therefore, the fluctuations in this process tend to be more liquidity risks. The solution to this problem is actually placed in front of the Federal Reserve with several options:
1) Liquidity explosion: Bankruptcy of banks affects enterprises and employment, which naturally solves the problem of inflation. However, the process is an unorderly, rapid decline. At present, the regulatory authorities of various countries have not done so.
2) Injecting liquidity + raising interest rates/contracting balance sheets: Let the drowning banks remain submerged, but provide temporary transition with an oxygen tube; the situation faced by the banking industry is that the Federal Reserve is supplying oxygen to drowning banks, while at the same time increasing the water level in the pond.
3) Injecting liquidity + lowering interest rates: This combination is the current market trading deduction, injecting liquidity, and quickly entering a rate cut channel after symbolically interest rate hikes.
However, in Dolphin's view, the third trading logic will have obvious paradoxes: If liquidity is injected, the economic fundamentals still slow down in terms of income tables, and the attainment of the unemployment rate can only be achieved slowly. Under this employment rate path, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will quickly enter the rate cut channel, which is likely to mean that the inflation is not clean and a "stagflation" situation will emerge after the target and reality are reconciled.
However, the market's current trading ground is a light recession with upward valuation logic and obvious suspicion of running ahead. Dolphin believes that unless the bank's trust crisis spirals out of control, it is very likely that the following path will be taken:
Injecting liquidity + slowing down interest rate hikes (adding another 25 basis points, and the basic interest rate is about 4.78%), but it will still maintain a high-interest position for some time to ease the obvious contradictions in the employment market, rather than the market's expectations that it will enter the rate cut state directly in June of this year, which is close to the second scenario that Dolphin mentioned.
III. Combined Portfolio Adjustment
No adjustments were made last week. However, in terms of equity assets this week, the risk of intensified competition in e-commerce is clearly visible, so Pinduoduo was adjusted out. IV. Alpha Dolphin Portfolio Returns
During the week of March 17th, the Alpha Dolphin portfolio rose 3%, a significant gain compared to the S&P 500 (+1.4%) and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index (-0.2%), but lower than the Hang Seng Technology Index (+5.2%).
Since the start of the portfolio testing until last weekend, the absolute return of the portfolio was 14.6%, with the excess return compared to the benchmark S&P 500 index being 25%.
V. Semiconductor Craze During ChatGPT+ Profit-taking
Last week, apart from two new energy companies, SunPower and CATL, the assets in Dolphin's portfolio performed fairly stably, with the only exception being Li-Ning Company.
However, from a fundamental perspective, after Li-Ning's inventory clearance, the risks have become apparent. After the clearance, combined with the decent sales data seen in January and February that Dolphin has observed, the company is expected to welcome a better opportunity without any serious issues.
On the other hand, SunPower and CATL are generally facing weak downstream demand, in terms of both domestic and overseas subsidies, high interest rates that suppress terminal consumption of related products in both photovoltaic roofs and whole vehicles, plus industry capacity releases leading to intensified competition, which requires some time for the valuation to be improved. Dolphin plans to adjust its holdings at an opportune time in the near future.
The companies whose stock prices have increased significantly are mainly due to the clear downward trend of US Treasury yields, while the technology and semiconductor industries rose noticeably, especially Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) in China, NVIDIA abroad, and Google in the US, not only benefiting from the reduced yields, but also the short-term ChatGPT+ story that cannot be falsified.
For those companies whose stock price changes are relatively exaggerated, Dolphin summarizes the reasons as follows:
VI. Portfolio Asset Allocation
There was no position shifting in the portfolio this week, which only consisted of 22 equities, with 7 rated as standard holdings and 13 rated as low holdings, and the rest in gold, US bonds, and US dollars. As of last weekend, Alpha Dolphin's asset allocation and equity asset holding weight were as follows:
Seven, Major events of this week:
From the macro angle, the most critical event this week is the monetary policy meeting in the early morning of March 23rd Beijing Time. The current majority of market expectations are for a 25 basis point rate hike. It is necessary to pay attention to the rate hike basis points, and more importantly, to see if the Fed's commentary on maintaining high interest rates in the banking crisis will change.
Especially under the current situation where the market has quickly factored in multiple interest rate cuts before the end of the year, if the Fed still maintains the policy of maintaining high interest rates for a period of time, it may be unfavorable to the market.
In terms of individual stocks, Pinduoduo's financial report released yesterday once again verified the fierce competition in the e-commerce industry. Other key companies include Tencent, Meituan and Xiaomi.
Currently, under the situation where Pinduoduo's financial report has also collapsed, the only Chinese concept stock that may still have some hope among the remaining companies is Tencent. With the relaxation of game approvals and the strong advertising support from short video platforms, the strong performance of Chinese concept stocks is likely to be supported, and Tencent is the most hopeful.
The specific key focus areas are summarized by Dolphin Jun as follows:
Please refer to:
"Silicon Valley Bank Run Crisis: Is the US Recession going to run to the scene?" (Chinese content)
"US stock market completes trading and rushes global opportunities to breathe" (Chinese content)
"Inflation is confirmed? It's an opportunity to look forward to" (Chinese content)
"Putting Inflation Aside, The Signals in Alibaba and Baidu Are More Important" (Chinese content)
"Hong Kong and US weak and the wolf is coming again?" (Chinese content)
"The puppet market driven by high-frequency macro data, US stocks are puppet markets" (Chinese content) -《One Sunline Changes Belief, Will Tesla Lead the US Stock Market to Fight Back?》
-《How Far is the “Dangerous” Situation in US Stocks From Changing?》
-《US Stocks Are Not Seeing a Red New Year, But Their Strong Performance is in Sight?》
-《Scrutinizing the Roots of the Stagnation in US Stocks》
-《Why is the Fed Still So Stubborn Despite the Decline of CPI?》
-《Is It Really That Easy to Eliminate Service Inflation? Be Careful of Overcorrecting the Market》
-《The Darkest Hour Before Dawn: Is Your Mindset in the Dark or in the Light?》
-《US Stocks “Fought Back” at Reality, How Much Longer Can Emerging Markets Bounce?》
-《Chinese Assets Rise Violently, Why are China and the US Two Worlds Apart?》 《Are Amazon, Google, and Microsoft Falling Stars? More Meteor Showers in the US stock market?》
《Unreliable "Strong US Dollar" GDP Growth Behind Expected Policy Shift?》
《Time to Test "Steadiness" again: Southern Acquirers vs Northern Runaways》
《Slower Rate Hike? Dream Defeated Again》
《 Sad Q2: Loud "Eagle Voice", Difficult Collective Crossing》
《Falling, Doubtful, Is There Still Hope for Reversal?》
《 Fed Violently Hammers Inflation, Domestic Consumption Opportunities Arise?》
《 The Global Market Falls Again, and the US Shortage of Workers Is the Root Cause》
《Fed Becomes the Top Bear, the Global Market Collapse》
《A Bloodbath Caused by a Rumor: Risks Never Disappear, Searching for Sugar in Glass Shards》 [ "《美国向左、中国向右，美国资产的性价比又回来了》", "《裁员太慢不够接盘，美国还得继续 “衰”》", "《美股式 “丧事喜办”：衰退是好事、最猛加息叫利空出尽》", "《加息进入下半场，“业绩雷” 开幕》", "《疫情要反扑、美国要衰退、资金要变卦》", "《眼下的中国资产：美股 “没消息就是好消息”》", "《成长已然狂欢，但美国就一定是衰退吗？》", "《2023 年的美国，是衰退还是滞涨？》", "《美国石油通胀，中国新能源车做大做强？》", "《美联储加息提速，中国资产机会反而来了》", "《美股通胀又双叒爆表，说好得反弹能走多远？》" ] 《This is the most down-to-earth way, the Dolphin Investment Portfolio is launched》
Risk Disclosures and Statements in this Article: Dolphin Investments Research Disclaimer and General Disclosures
