New Model 3 on sale, prices rising instead of falling?

The long-awaited new model 3 from Tesla quietly went online without any official preheating. On September 1st, Tesla China's official website showed that the refreshed version of Model 3 has started pre-sales and is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of this year, marking the first redesign of the Model 3 in 6 years.

However, the previously rumored new model 3 was expected to benefit from the application of integrated die-casting technology and a decrease in the cost of the three-electric system to around 200,000 yuan. On the contrary, the actual entry-level new Model 3 released today has seen a price increase. The starting price of the rear-wheel drive version is 259,900 yuan, which is 28,000 yuan more expensive than the original 22 model listed on the official website. However, the price of the long-range all-wheel drive version has been slightly reduced. It has been adjusted from the original 331,900 yuan to 295,900 yuan, a decrease of 36,000 yuan.

Compared with the 22 model, the 23 model of Model 3 has made adjustments in terms of exterior details, interior design, and battery capacity. The CLTC version of the rear-wheel drive model has increased its range from 556KM to 606KM, and the range of the long-range version has increased from 675KM to 713KM. As for autonomous driving, as previously rumored, the new car has canceled all radar systems, including ultrasonic radar and millimeter-wave radar, achieving true "pure vision."

Overall, the new Model 3, whether it's the simplified interior, the removal of millimeter-wave radar, the integration of dashboard components, the removal of physical gear levers, or the use of new interior fabrics, all these changes point to one thing: cost reduction.

However, the entry-level redesigned Model 3 has seen a price increase. According to Dolphin Research's previous calculations, assuming that the current price of Model 3 at 231,900 yuan corresponds to a gross profit margin of 20%, 231,900 yuan selling price divided by 1.13 equals 205,000 yuan ASP, which consists of 164,000 yuan per vehicle cost and 41,000 yuan per vehicle gross profit. With a decrease of 20,000 yuan in per vehicle cost, the corresponding per vehicle cost is 144,000 yuan, while the selling price of 259,900 yuan corresponds to an ASP of 230,000 yuan. Without considering export transportation and taxes, the gross profit margin calculated is approximately 37%. It can be seen that the entry-level redesigned Model 3 can have a significant impact on the gross profit margin.

Coincidentally, shortly after the official announcement of the new Model 3, Tesla announced another price adjustment for its Model S and Model X flagship models, with a maximum price reduction of 220,000 yuan. However, the Model S/X only accounts for about 4% of the total delivery volume, while the significant price reduction of the entry-level Model 3 redesign has a stabilizing effect on the gross profit margin of the high-end models.

This adjustment clearly indicates a change in Tesla's strategy, gradually shifting from the high-end luxury electric vehicle market to the mass market. If the sales of the new car do not meet expectations, Tesla can leave room for price reductions to achieve sales targets by compressing the gross profit margin. The bottom line for the Model 3 may be around 200,000 yuan, otherwise it may conflict with the price range of the Model Q, which was launched in 2024. The entry-level Model 3 is priced at 259,900 yuan, which has also relieved domestic counterparts. If the Model 3 really drops to 200,000 yuan, it will not only be difficult for vehicles in the same class to withstand, but it will also erode the market of compact pure electric vehicles priced between 150,000 and 200,000 yuan, inevitably causing a new wave of turbulence in the new energy market.