Coinbase report suggests Trump's tax law could push gamblers toward prediction markets

Summary

Coinbase’s 2026 outlook report highlights that a new tax law, effective from 2026, will limit the tax deduction for gambling losses, potentially making prediction markets a more tax-efficient alternative for gamblers.

Impact Analysis

So they’re basically admitting that the new tax law is a strategic opportunity for them. By highlighting the tax inefficiencies of traditional gambling under the new law, Coinbase is positioning its prediction markets as a more attractive alternative. This is a smart move to drive adoption of their new prediction market platform, especially as they integrate Kalshi and push for federal regulation over state control. The timing is perfect, aligning with their broader strategy to diversify beyond crypto trading into a ‘one-stop financial app.’ This could significantly boost user engagement and revenue diversification. However, the regulatory landscape remains a challenge, and the success of this pivot will depend on how well they navigate these hurdles.AnueSec+ 4AnueSec