Trump Proposes Drafting a New Nuclear Agreement

Summary

Following the expiration of the New START treaty with Russia on February 5, 2026, former President Trump has proposed that his nuclear experts begin drafting a new agreement.Zhitong Trump has expressed a preference for a broader deal that would include China, a position he also held during his first term. His approach has been described as casual regarding the treaty’s expiration, stating a desire for a “better deal” that brings China into nuclear disarmament talks.

Impact Analysis

This isn’t really about a new deal. This is the starting gun for a new arms race. Trump let the New START treaty with Russia expire just yesterday, and now he’s floating a grand bargain that includes China. It’s a classic move: create an impossible precondition—knowing China won’t join—to justify abandoning the existing framework and blame them for the failure. The bottom line is the era of bilateral arms control is over. We’re entering an unregulated, three-way strategic competition between the US, Russia, and China. This provides a multi-year tailwind for defense spending, specifically on strategic deterrence. It’s a clear signal to get long prime defense contractors. The narrative is locked in; we should be overweight the sector.