Trump Talking to Zelensky

Summary

Market sources confirm President Trump is currently speaking with Ukrainian President ZelenskyyUSHK News. This follows a series of diplomatic engagements where Trump reportedly contacted Putin and EU leaders to signal that negotiations to end the conflict would begin immediately.

Impact Analysis

This isn’t a check-in; it’s the closing logic of a deal. The timing—right after coordinating with EU leaders and putting the ‘negotiations start immediately’ narrative into the ether—tells us Trump is likely delivering an ultimatum, not a proposal.

The Trade:

• Fade the War Premium: The market has been long defense (RTX, LMT) on the ‘forever war’ thesis. It’s time to trim. If a ceasefire framework is announced, those multiples contract fast.
• Long the ‘Rebuild’ Trade: Look at heavy machinery (CAT) and European construction/materials. The narrative is shifting from ammunition to concrete. Note the administration’s pattern of securing funding pledges for reconstruction zones, as seen with the Gaza initiativeReuters—they will likely apply the same ‘pay-to-play’ model here.
• Short Oil Volatility: A freeze in Ukraine removes a massive geopolitical floor under crude. Unless Zelenskyy publicly blows up the talks, the risk premium is evaporating.

Bottom line: The administration is moving to the ‘post-war’ phase. Position for the freeze, not the fight.