Fed-related news tracking
2025
Dec24
According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.0%.
Dec23
On Tuesday, December 23, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) surged to $58.93 trillion, up from $15.23 trillion the previous trading day.
Dec22
Fed Governor Milan warns that not continuing rate cuts next year could increase recession risks, citing rising unemployment and poor job data. He advocates for a more dovish stance, despite internal Fed disagreements on future policy paths.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen to 19.9%, with an 80.1% chance of rates remaining unchanged.
The Federal Reserve paid $186.5 billion in interest on reserves to banks last year, setting a historical record.
The Federal Reserve is seeking public feedback on a proposed limited-access payment account that would allow certain institutions to use Fed payment systems without full master account privileges. These accounts aim to support innovation and protect payment system security but will have balance limits, no interest, and no credit services.
Dec20
According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, as of December 21, 2025, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 22.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 77.9%.
Dec19
The Federal Reserve conducted a reverse repo operation totaling $3.047 billion with 12 counterparties.
On December 19, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo agreements fell to $3.047 billion from $11.708 billion the previous trading day.
The Federal Reserve announced plans to seek feedback on establishing limited 'payment accounts' for certain financial institutions. These accounts would allow access to Fed payment services for clearing and settlement but would not offer broader banking privileges. The initiative aims to support innovation while safeguarding the payment system.
New York Fed President John Williams stated there's no urgency to further adjust interest rates, as current monetary policy is well-positioned. Despite recent employment and inflation data not altering the economic outlook, the Fed remains uncertain about future rate cuts. Officials expect only one more rate cut in 2026. Williams emphasized that inflation is moving towards the 2% target and the labor market is gradually cooling, aligning with expectations of an 'orderly slowdown' in the economy.
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in 2025, leading to a decline in U.S. dollar deposit rates, which are further diluted by the appreciation of the RMB. Most domestic banks' dollar deposit rates have fallen below 3%, with some banks still offering high-interest products. Industry experts expect further declines in dollar deposit rates, advising investors to be cautious of dual risks from exchange and interest rate fluctuations.
Dec18
The Federal Reserve's reserve balance fell to $2.93 trillion as of the week ending December 17, marking a decrease of $40.1 billion from the previous week and reaching the lowest level since December 3 of this year.
The Federal Reserve's discount window loan balance rose to $8.87 billion for the week ending December 16, up from $8.34 billion the previous week.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate swaps indicate an additional rate cut of 3 basis points by the end of 2026.
Before the CPI release, CME's FedWatch indicates a 26.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January, with a 73.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 45.8%, with a 43.2% chance of no change, and a 10.9% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
The Fed withdrew guidance that blocked banks from experimenting with 'novel' crypto-related activities, like issuing stablecoins. This marks a shift in the U.S. regulatory environment, reflecting changes in risk perception and expanding regulatory space for state member banks without deposit insurance to apply for crypto business.
Dec16
The Federal Reserve accepted $1.554 billion from two counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repo operation.
Dec15
Federal Reserve official Williams has stated that the central bank's approach to interest rate cuts is designed to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation.
Fed Governor Milan stated that the Fed's continued Treasury purchases are not quantitative easing (QE) and will continue to shift some risks to the private market.
