Fed-related news tracking
2025
Dec04
The Federal Reserve is considering significant investments in its check infrastructure due to the rise of digital payments and the decline in check usage. The Fed is seeking opinions on potential reforms and may gradually stop some services to cut future check services.
The Federal Reserve announced pricing for payment services provided to banks and credit unions, including check clearing, ACH transactions, and instant payments. The Fed expects to recover 108% of actual and imputed costs by 2026. This pricing will take effect on January 1.
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet update shows a halt in the reduction of its total assets, which have decreased from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion. This pause in quantitative tightening is accompanied by a recovery in profitability since November, with deferred assets slightly decreasing.
Dec03
Global markets are influenced by expectations of a Fed rate cut, with an 89% chance of a quarter percentage cut on December 10. U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November. Wall Street and European markets are mostly positive, while Asian markets are mixed. The Dollar Index fell, and bond yields eased except in Japan. Oil prices rose amid Ukraine peace disappointment, and gold rebounded. Cryptocurrencies surged, with Bitcoin up 6.46%.
The Federal Reserve has turned a corner on three years of losses due to pandemic-era monetary policy. Since early November, the Fed's profitability has resumed, reducing the deferred asset gap from $243.8 billion to $243.2 billion, indicating a long-term trend shift. Although it may take years to fully close the gap, the combined profits of the 12 reserve banks this quarter are expected to exceed $2 billion.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% at next week's monetary policy meeting, with market anticipation driven by weak labor market data and a high probability of rate reduction.
Dec02
With the December holiday season approaching, investors have ample reason to feel optimistic: various macroeconomic data seem to be perfectly aligned, pushing the Fed to cut rates at its last meeting of the year. The CME FedWatch rate futures index shows an 85% probability of a rate cut to 3.5%. Reports from Goldman Sachs and UBS both predict multiple rate cuts by the Fed over the next six months. Despite negative news in tech stocks, the market has risen for four consecutive trading days.
The Federal Reserve has injected $13.5 billion into the banking system through overnight repos, marking the end of a 3.5-year quantitative tightening (QT) period.
Dec01
The Federal Reserve released a regulatory report stating that the banking system continues to maintain strong capital levels and that the Fed remains focused on bank and commercial real estate loans.
Nov28
The Federal Reserve's discount window borrowing rose to $7.79 billion for the week ending November 26, up from $6.10 billion the previous week.
Citigroup expects a quarter-point interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, in line with predictions from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs amid recent policy discussions.
U.S. ISM surveys on manufacturing and services activity, plus the latest ADP private payrolls, will be watched closely for confirmation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its next meeting.
The Federal Reserve accepted $7.561 billion in fixed-rate reverse repos from 8 counterparties.
With the Fed's rate cut lowering yields, experts recommend opting for short-term CDs, mismatching maturity dates, or using high-yield savings/money market accounts to lock in higher rates while maintaining flexibility.
Nov27
Global stocks rose as investors anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, despite muted trading due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. The yen remains under intervention watch, while AI spending concerns have subsided. European markets saw modest gains, and the dollar slightly increased against other currencies. Traders now see an 85% chance of a December rate cut, influenced by recent Fed comments. The Japanese yen strengthened amid potential intervention, and Bitcoin rose, breaking a four-week losing streak.
Nov26
Market expectations for a rate cut have surged rapidly, driven by comments from 'Powell ally' Williams, suggesting a potential Fed rate cut in December. This has led to a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut, now seen as high as 81%.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates weak consumer spending and a slowdown in the job market, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in December. The report highlights that while employment and consumer spending have cooled, price pressures remain moderate, and the manufacturing and technology sectors show resilience. Fed officials are divided on the path of rate cuts.
According to CME's FedWatch, there is an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 15.1% chance of rates remaining unchanged.
On November 26, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage was $2.217 billion, down from $2.314 billion the previous trading day.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released on November 27, 2025, indicates that while overall economic activity remains steady, there are signs of slowing consumer spending and mixed signals in various sectors. High-end retail remains resilient, but manufacturing faces tariff uncertainties, and the labor market shows slight declines.
