Fed-related news tracking
2026
May08
Fed Vice Chair Bowman announced new regulatory requirements forcing large banks to disclose financial data—including leverage, net profit, and total assets—of the Non-Depository Financial Institutions (NDFIs) they lend to, aiming to enhance systemic risk assessment [][][].
CME FedWatch data indicates a 94.9% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in June and an 88.8% probability for July . This follows April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000, which exceeded expectations despite a cooling trend .
May07
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains at approximately $6.7 trillion, its highest level since May 2025 [citation:23, 26]. Amid the transition to nominee Kevin Warsh's leadership, discussions are intensifying around reducing the balance sheet by $1 trillion to $2 trillion, with Warsh viewing such a reduction as equivalent to a 50-basis-point interest rate hike [citation:2, 3, 12].
May06
CME FedWatch data indicates a 93.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in June, with an 86.5% chance of holding steady through July [][]. This follows the Fed's April decision to pause amid $120/barrel oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [][].
May05
In November, U.S. unemployment rose to 4.6% as the economy added only 64,000 jobs following a government shutdown . Despite this labor softening, the Federal Reserve has postponed interest rate cuts, citing resilient economic growth, rising core PCE inflation (3.2%), and energy price pressures linked to international conflicts .
On May 6, 2026, the Federal Reserve accepted $1.122 billion from 6 counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repo operation []. This follows a recent peak of $8.261 billion from 12 counterparties on May 1 [] and reflects a broader trend of low facility usage compared to previous months [][].
May04
Latest CME FedWatch data indicates a 95.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with the likelihood of a hold remaining above 86% through September . This shift follows reports of surging consumer prices and ongoing inflationary pressures from the conflict in Iran . Major institutions like Morgan Stanley and Barclays have pushed their rate cut expectations into 2027, citing a resilient labor market and high PCE forecasts .
May01
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, marking the highest level of dissent since 1992 . While Chair Powell presided over his final meeting, the committee cited high inflation driven by energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East as reasons for the hold . Dissenters were split, with one member seeking a cut and three others opposing any easing bias .
Apr30
CME FedWatch data shows a 95% probability of rates remaining unchanged in June 2026, with an 87.9% chance of a hold in July . This hawkish shift follows concerns over inflation impacts from the Iran conflict and a potential leadership change at the Fed . Some traders are now even pricing in a 25% chance of a rate hike by April 2027 .
On April 30, 2026, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage surged to $8.261 billion across 12 counterparties, up from just $643 million the previous day .
Apr29
The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting [][]. While the official statement retained a bias toward future rate reductions, the committee showed its largest internal division since 1992, with four members dissenting []. Officials upgraded the characterization of inflation to 'significantly high' due to energy price pressures linked to Middle East tensions [].
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in a heavily divided 8-4 vote, the largest dissent since 1992 . The dollar strengthened significantly as rising oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict boosted safe-haven demand, while the yen weakened past 160, sparking intervention fears . Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh faces a hawkish internal environment as Jerome Powell prepares to exit .
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the 3.5% to 3.75% range, signaling a cautious stance due to persistent inflation and geopolitical risks [citation:3, 13]. Market expectations for rate cuts have drastically cooled, with futures now reflecting a high probability of rates remaining unchanged through at least June, and dot plot projections shifting from three cuts down to just one for the year [citation:2, 25, 26].
The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75% in April 2026, meeting market expectations . This 'hold' occurs against a backdrop of sticky inflation, energy price shocks, and a resilient labor market, with the Fed remaining cautious ahead of Chair Jerome Powell's departure on May 15 .
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% , but the decision was marked by Governor Stephen Milan’s preference for a rate cut [citation:1, 12]. Milan continues to advocate for 3 to 4 cuts this year, targeting a neutral rate as low as 2.5%, arguing that labor cooling and housing disinflation will outweigh temporary energy price spikes from Middle East tensions [citation:13, 24, 25].
Internal policy rifts within the Federal Reserve, led by Vice Chair Michael Barr, significantly delayed Morgan Stanley’s waiver application for organizational restructuring [][]. While the majority eventually approved the waiver, Barr warned that using low-cost federal deposit insurance to fund high-risk activities sets a dangerous precedent [][]. This friction occurs despite Morgan Stanley's strong Q1 2026 performance and its efforts to lobby for reduced capital requirements under revised Basel III rules [][].
U.S. and European futures are edging higher, driven by strong earnings expectations for mega-cap tech companies despite looming FOMC policy risks . While tech leads, the market remains cautious due to volatile oil prices and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran . Investors are specifically awaiting Jerome Powell’s press conference for clarity on future interest rate paths .
Apr27
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, citing persistent inflation (3.3% CPI) and rising energy costs driven by Middle East tensions . The decision was marked by the most divided FOMC vote since 1992, with four dissenters, while leadership remains in flux as Jerome Powell prepares for a potential transition to nominee Kevin Warsh amid ongoing legal and political challenges .
On April 27, 2026, usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility rose to $363 million from $82 million the previous session . This follows a long-term decline from much higher levels, such as $5.67 billion in early 2026 .
Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% during this week's meeting, with a potential 25bps rate cut projected for September 2026 . Despite a 100% market probability of a hold this week due to 3.3% inflation, Barclays anticipates that cooling demand will eventually allow for policy easing .
