Tesla's "unfavorable start", is the tech giant's earnings report meeting a "disaster day" for the US stock market?

Tesla's earnings report caused a continuous two-day plunge in its stock price, indicating that traders have little patience for disappointing performance from the "Big Seven" tech companies, putting immense pressure on other tech giants that are about to release their earnings reports.

This week, Microsoft and Alphabet, the parent company of Google, are expected to release their earnings reports on Tuesday, Meta on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday. Apple is expected to announce its earnings report next week, and Nvidia on November 21.

Investors are about to find out if there is more "fuel" left in the tank of the US stock market.

The "Big Seven" carry most of the market's growth expectations

This year, the "Big Seven" tech companies have contributed to the majority of the S&P 500's gains: the total return of the S&P 500 (including dividends) is 11% year-to-date, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Without these seven giants, the return would be only 0.6%.

Tech stocks are usually seen as bets on growth, and large tech companies have already achieved massive profits and carry most of the market's growth expectations. According to Goldman Sachs data, these seven companies accounted for 17% of the earnings per share of S&P 500 constituents in 2022, and the bank expects this proportion to increase to 24% by 2025.

Bryant Vancronkite, Senior Portfolio Manager at investment firm Allspring Global Investments, said:

"The growth rates these companies provide are crucial to the overall health of the stock market."

Some fund managers believe that weak performance from large tech companies will prompt investors to reconsider the prices they are willing to pay for these stocks.

The sell-off of Tesla stock last weekBD 警告表明， the market is ready to punish underperforming tech giants. Tesla expressed a pessimistic outlook on future profitability and demand prospects in its Q3 earnings report. At the same time, Musk warned of production issues with the long-delayed Cybertruck.

James Abate, Chief Investment Officer of Centre Asset Management, a asset management company, said:

"When Tesla's earnings report shows disappointing profit margins, disappointing revenue growth, and disappointing asset efficiency, it not only affects Tesla's valuation, but also the valuation of the entire market."

This means there is not much room for disappointment.

Data shows that the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 at the end of last week was 17.8 times, which is comparable to the average level of the past decade. Nevertheless, many observers believe that considering the surge in US Treasury yields to levels not seen in over a decade, it provides investors with a lower-risk option, making the stock market appear overpriced.

Although Wall Street does not have high expectations for the overall stock market performance, analysts expect varying degrees of higher earnings for most large tech companies.

Analysts expect Apple's profits to grow by 4.8% and Microsoft to grow by 13%. For Meta and Nvidia, these forecasts are even higher at 116% and 468% respectively.

Dow Jones market Data shows that the market value of the "Tech Seven Sisters" accounts for 30% of the total market value of the S&P 500, higher than the 22% at the end of last year. This means that the rise and fall of their stock prices will affect the index.

Many investors believe that these stocks appear expensive relative to company earnings and are susceptible to the impact of a pullback in some of these stocks.

According to FactSet data, Tesla's P/E ratio was about 55 times the expected earnings for the next 12 months, making it the highest valued among large tech stocks. Apple and Microsoft have P/E ratios of 26 times and 28 times respectively, higher than the 10-year average levels of around 18 times and 23 times.

Carin Pai, Head of Portfolio Management and Stock Strategy at Fiduciary Trust International, commented on the "Tech Seven Sisters":

"The current valuations of these stocks are too high, leaving little room for disappointment. This is a risk for the stock market."

The challenge for the "Tech Seven Sisters" is whether they can translate their enthusiasm for AI into profits.

It is worth noting that the cost of developing generative AI tools is high, and companies including Microsoft and Google have been investing heavily in it.Some large tech companies are still struggling to cope with industry challenges. Last month, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and 17 states filed a lawsuit against Amazon, accusing the retailer of illegally using its monopoly power to maintain high prices and harm the interests of competitors.

Google is also dealing with an antitrust lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice. In addition, Apple's business in the important Chinese market is also facing the risk of declining sales.