"Super Mergers and Acquisitions" in the oil industry are happening frequently, but is the "twilight of old energy" still far away?

OPEC and the IEA have once again engaged in a "war of words". One side believes that we have entered the "twilight of old energy", while the other side believes that "old energy will not come to an end".

The historic mergers of ExxonMobil and Chevron, one after another, further indicate that the energy industry has entered a "new era of uncertainty".

In its latest report released yesterday, the IEA called for cautious investment in fossil fuels, as it predicts that global demand for oil, natural gas, and coal will peak by 2030, while the number of electric vehicles will increase tenfold.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol pointed out that the transition to clean energy is unstoppable on a global scale. It is not a question of "whether" but a question of "how fast".

However, OPEC previously stated that oil demand will continue to rise in the long term after 2030, and called for trillions of dollars in new investments in the oil industry. Two weeks ago, OPEC predicted that oil demand will increase by about 15% from now until 2045, reaching 116 million barrels per day.

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman believes that the resurgence of mega oil mergers "proves" that fossil fuels will continue to exist.

With frequent "super mergers" in the oil industry, Chevron announced this week its plan to acquire oil producer Hess for $53 billion, following ExxonMobil's $59.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources.

This viewpoint has been supported by many industry insiders, who question why Chevron and ExxonMobil would spend over $120 billion to acquire Hess and Pioneer if they believed there was a risk of declining oil demand.

"A new era of energy uncertainty"?

Compared to the "twilight of old energy", the term "a new era of energy uncertainty" is more appropriate.

Some believe that the extravagant spending by Chevron and ExxonMobil does not necessarily mean that the oil age will last longer, but rather reflects the so-called "new era of energy uncertainty".

Facing the future, uncertainty brings fear, and scaling up may be a defensive posture for oil giants. Smaller independent companies seem willing to sell. If the largest producers can extract the required oil more efficiently than their competitors, a decrease in demand may not cause them significant harm.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth responded to the IEA's viewpoint, stating:

Oil demand will not peak immediately, and the IEA's statement that all fossil fuels, including oil and gas, will reach peak demand before 2030 is "absolutely correct". You can construct various scenarios, but we live in the real world and must allocate funds to meet the needs of the real world.