Arrogant Toyota, making a fortune from gasoline cars

A 100,000-word article: Toyota's President, Akio Toyoda, who is known as the "electric car critic" in the automotive industry, has recently been feeling quite proud.

At the recent Tokyo Motor Show, Akio Toyoda once again criticized electric cars. Using the recent slowdown in pure electric vehicle sales in the United States as an example, he stated, "My resistance to electric cars is justified. Developing pure electric vehicles is not the only way to reduce carbon emissions."

Following this, Toyota's third-quarter earnings report (Q2 of the 2024 fiscal year) exceeded expectations, adding fuel to his comments. Toyota's earnings report, released on November 1st, showed that its third-quarter revenue was approximately RMB 557.277 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%; operating profit was approximately RMB 70.146 billion, a year-on-year increase of 156%, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately RMB 53.584 billion.

What surprised the market even more was Toyota's net profit margin. In the first half of the 2024 fiscal year, its sales net profit margin reached 11.8%, surpassing Tesla's (9.4%) for the first time in the past two and a half years.

While engaging in a price war in the global new energy vehicle market led by Tesla, Toyota, as the dominant player in the era of fuel-powered vehicles, has achieved record-breaking sales and key financial data. Toyota even further raised its profit forecast for the 2024 fiscal year from the previous RMB 146.13 billion to RMB 219.195 billion.

The significant increase in Toyota's vehicle sales and profit margin has surprised many investors. Some private fund managers admitted that while electric vehicles dominate the market headlines, the market outside of electric vehicles has become an overlooked opportunity for investors.

After Toyota released its earnings report, its stock price rose by more than 6% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In the past two trading days, its total market value reached approximately RMB 1.81 trillion, just a step away from its all-time high, firmly holding the position of the world's second-largest automaker by market value. Of course, there is still a significant gap compared to Tesla's RMB 5 trillion.

The factors driving Toyota's significant increase in profit are mainly the sharp depreciation of the yen, increased sales, and price increases.

Unlike facing intense price wars in the Chinese market and the need to reduce prices, third-party data shows that Toyota's new car prices have increased by nearly 20% in overseas markets such as the United States over the past four years.

In terms of sales volume, Toyota sold 2.845 million vehicles in the third quarter, an 8.4% year-on-year increase, setting a new quarterly record. It also maintained its position as the world's top-selling automaker, surpassing the Volkswagen Group.

Even in the major North American market, survey data from MarkLines shows that Toyota still has a large number of unfulfilled orders, and its inventory is far below average. This means that Toyota's sales will remain at a relatively high level in the short term. Analysts at SBI Securities in Japan believe that Toyota's profit margin in the 2024 fiscal year will continue to surpass Tesla, maintaining a leading position.

Looking at the specific sales data, gasoline-powered vehicles are the main contributors to Toyota's sales growth. In the third quarter, the sales of its pure electric models were only about 30,000 units, accounting for less than 1% of total sales. Even if plug-in hybrids are included, they account for less than 3% of total sales. Toyota even predicts that the sales of its pure electric vehicle models in the fiscal year 2024 (April 2023 to March 2024) will be 120,000 units, a significant downward revision from the previous market expectation of 200,000 units.

The challenges in the electrification transformation will affect Toyota's market performance in the future. In Toyota's sales expectations for the fiscal year 2024, the Asian market is the only market with a significant downward revision in growth expectations. In China and Southeast Asia, Toyota is facing a tough battle.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first nine months of this year, Guangzhou Toyota's wholesale sales volume decreased by 10.3% year-on-year to 685,800 units, while FAW Toyota's cumulative wholesale sales volume increased slightly by 0.8% to about 584,800 units. The combined sales volume of the two electric vehicle models, bZ4X and bZ3, launched by Toyota in China in the first nine months was only about 31,100 units, even less than the monthly sales volume of leading new energy vehicles.

Yoji Miyazaki, Toyota's Deputy Chief Financial Officer, also admitted that China, as the world's largest automobile market, is in a "very intense price competition." In addition, in Southeast Asian markets such as Thailand, the demand for electric vehicles is increasing, and Chinese automakers such as BYD, Geely, and SAIC are increasing their investments, which has also posed unprecedented competition for Toyota.

The hot sales of fuel vehicles and the lackluster performance of new energy vehicles have highlighted Toyota's transformation challenges. Toyota's consistent skepticism about electric vehicles and its stumbling progress in electrification transformation have always raised doubts among investors and consumers about Toyota's sincerity in transformation and whether it can produce a good new energy vehicle to continue its glory in the era of new energy vehicles.

Faced with this answer sheet, Toyota, which has traditionally focused on hybrid technology and hydrogen fuel cell technology and has a relatively weak layout in the pure electric field, also needs to write quickly.

China is where Toyota's hopes lie in electrification transformation.

In August of this year, Toyota changed its past system of having its headquarters in Japan as the core of research and development and announced the establishment of Toyota Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development Center (China) Co., Ltd. (referred to as "IEM by TOYOTA"), and transferred engineers from its three joint venture companies' research and development centers in China to the research and development projects led by IEM by TOYOTA.

Insiders close to IEM by TOYOTA said that Toyota's move is to quickly catch up with market demand in the field of electric vehicles through China's innovative strength, accelerate the development of electric vehicles, and apply products and technologies in the Chinese market to other global markets.

However, time is running out. According to Toyota's current plans, both self-developed batteries and a brand-new pure electric platform will have to wait until after 2025. According to industry insiders and institutions' expectations, global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 25 million units by 2025. At that time, can Toyota still hold onto its global sales crown? Without competitive electric vehicle models, this undoubtedly raises a question mark.

Akio Toyoda, on the other hand, is "optimistic" about this. He said that Japanese automakers must win against Chinese automakers. What will lead to victory? Akio Toyoda's response is that simply winning in sales is one perspective, and Japanese car companies need to develop new strategies to seek survival.

Whether it is the recent cooperation between Volkswagen and Xiaopeng, or Stellantis' investment in Zero Run, it shows that fuel giants have an unprecedented "anxiety" about the new energy era and hope to achieve results as soon as possible. Toyota, the dominant player in the era of fuel vehicles, should also take more practical and tangible actions to accelerate its own transformation.