PPI cooling boosts US stocks, Chinese concept index rises strongly by about 3%, US bond yields rise more than 10 basis points intraday.

US October PPI YoY cooled more than expected to 1.3%, MoM fell 0.5%, the largest monthly decline in three and a half years since April 2020. October retail sales fell 0.1% MoM, turning negative for the first time since March, but the decline was smaller than the expected 0.3%. In November, the New York Fed manufacturing index turned positive at 9.1, the highest since April.

US October core PPI remained unchanged MoM and increased 2.4% YoY, the lowest since the beginning of 2021, and the slower-than-expected growth further convinced the market that the Fed's rate hike cycle has ended. The probability of a rate hike in December and January remains zero, while the possibility of a rate cut starting in May next year is close to 60%, significantly higher than less than 40% a month ago.

Daly, a voting member of the FOMC and president of the San Francisco Fed, said that the data shows further deceleration of US inflation, and the Fed should carefully consider and maintain patience for a period of time. Interrupted and intermittent tightening may "tear apart" the Fed's credibility. Barkin, also a voting member of the FOMC and president of the Richmond Fed, said that the continued strong growth of the US economy may keep interest rates high.

The US House of Representatives passed a "staggered" temporary funding bill on Tuesday night, and it is expected to be approved by the Senate with a high probability, avoiding a government shutdown from midnight on Saturday. However, some analysts believe that the fundamental contradictions at the grassroots level are only being postponed until February next year.

Eurozone industrial output in September fell 6.9% YoY and fell 1.1% MoM, weaker than expected and the previous value. However, the EU expects the eurozone economy to avoid recession this year, and inflation will also fall. UK October CPI inflation cooled significantly to a 4.6% YoY increase, a two-year low, strengthening expectations that the Bank of England's rate hike cycle has ended and pushing the FTSE 100 index to rise for the year.

Nasdaq and S&P turn down midday, US stocks rise together, popular Chinese stocks outperform, Nvidia ends its ten-day rally

On Wednesday, November 15th, US inflation received the latest data showing a cooling trend, and US stocks opened higher for the second consecutive day. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) rose 0.5% at the beginning of the session, reaching 1211.5790 points, continuing to hit a new intraday high.

However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 briefly turned down at midday, and the S&P 500 index erased its 0.6% gain, with the tech sector falling more than 0.3%. Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals fell about 4%, and Nvidia was the ninth largest decliner. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) rose more than 220 points at its peak, briefly surpassing the 35,000-point mark, with Microsoft and Walmart both hitting new intraday highs since going public, and Intel hitting a 52-week high.

In the end, US stocks rose together, with the Dow and Russell small-cap stocks rising for four consecutive days. The Dow reached its highest level in three months since August 14th, and the Russell small-cap stocks reached their highest level in eight weeks since September 20th. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen for two consecutive days. The S&P has broken through the 4,500-point mark, reaching its highest level in two months since September 14th, while the Nasdaq has remained above 14,000 points and hit a three-and-a-half-month high since August 1st:

The S&P 500 index rose 7.18 points, or 0.16%, to close at 4,502.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 163.51 points, or 0.47%, to close at 34,991.21. The Nasdaq Composite rose 9.45 points, or 0.07%, to close at 14,103.84. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.03%, nearly erasing the initial 0.6% gain. The Nasdaq Technology Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 technology companies in the Nasdaq 100, fell slightly and failed to reach a new all-time high.

Nasdaq and S&P fluctuated, and US stocks rose in the end.

Goldman Sachs' chief US stock strategist, David Kostin, predicts that US stocks will continue to rise in 2024. They are the latest bullish Wall Street bank, but the increase by the end of next year may be limited to 5%, lower than the average increase of 8% in presidential election years. Previously, Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, also stated that investors are shifting towards increasing their positions in stocks and bonds.

UBS believes that the popularization of artificial intelligence will drive global technology companies to achieve steady growth of 16% in profits by 2024, supporting a strong rebound in technology stocks. However, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, warned that investors may have "overreacted" to Tuesday's CPI inflation exceeding expectations, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates cannot be ruled out.

Most of the star tech stocks rose. Meta, the "metaverse" company, fell 1%, ending an eight-day rally and dropping from its 22-month high. Amazon fell nearly 2%, dropping from its 19-month high. Microsoft erased a 0.7% decline and hovered near its all-time closing high. Apple rose 0.3%, hitting a ten-week high. Netflix rose about 3% to a four-month high. Google Class A rose 0.8%, hitting a three-week high. Tesla rose over 2%, reaching a four-week high.

Chip stocks saw mixed gains and losses. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.7%, breaking through the 3,700-point mark to a three-and-a-half-month high since early August. Intel rose 3% to a 17-month high, but AMD fell 1.6% from its five-month high. Nvidia fell 1.6%, ending a ten-day rally and dropping from its all-time closing high.

AI concept stocks rebounded for four consecutive days. C3.ai rose over 1% to a ten-week high. SoundHound.ai rose 4.7% to a two-month high. BigBear.ai rose over 3% to a three-and-a-half-month high. Palantir Technologies slightly rose, erasing a 1.7% decline, and hovered near its three-and-a-half-month high. On the news front, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller and Soros' family office both took profits on NVIDIA in the third quarter. The stock has soared nearly 240% this year, making it the best-performing component of the S&P 500. Microsoft has launched its first custom AI chip to compete with NVIDIA, while another general-purpose computing chip based on the Arm architecture can rival Intel processors. However, the company also announced new partnerships with AMD and NVIDIA. OpenAI has temporarily suspended new subscriptions for ChatGPT Plus due to overwhelming demand.

Popular Chinese concept stocks outperform the US market. ETF KWEB rose 3.4%, CQQQ rose over 1%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) surged by 300 points or 4.7%, closing up 2.9%. It has risen for four consecutive days to a five-week high, breaking through the 6500 and 6600 points levels.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com rose 7%, Baidu and Pinduoduo rose 3%. In other individual stocks, Alibaba rose nearly 4%, Tencent ADR rose over 5%, and Bilibili rose nearly 3%. NIO has risen nearly 5% for two consecutive days, Xiaopeng Motors rose over 2%, and Li Auto rose 1.7%.

Several popular Chinese concept stocks released their earnings reports before the market opened. Tencent's Q3 net profit increased by 39% YoY, with its gaming business rebounding and advertising revenue reaching a new high. JD.com's Q3 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, and its profit reached a new high. Xiaopeng Motors' Q3 revenue increased by 25% YoY, weaker than expected, and losses continued to widen. It is expected that the car delivery volume in the fourth quarter will double, and the total revenue growth rate will also be close to doubling.

Bank stocks, which rose sharply yesterday, continued to rebound due to hopes of avoiding an economic recession. The industry benchmark KBW Bank Index (BKX) on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange rose 1.4%, reaching its highest level in two months since September 14. It had hit a three-year low since September 2020 at the end of October. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) rose over 1% to its highest level since September 1, hitting its lowest level since November 2020 on May 11. Citigroup, which is about to lay off employees, rose over 1%, and the other "big four" banks rose by about 1%, but Goldman Sachs turned slightly lower.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Leading network solutions provider Cisco's third-quarter report was slightly better than expected, but it lowered its full-year performance guidance, intensifying market concerns about the company's control over technology spending. Its stock price plummeted 14% after hours.

Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, newly entered the satellite radio company Sirius XM in the third quarter, buying 9.7 million shares worth $44 million. The latter rose nearly 15% in early trading and closed up over 6%, reaching a four-month high.

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union at General Motors has enough votes to veto the recently reached labor agreement, and Berkshire Hathaway cleared its holdings of General Motors in the third quarter. The automotive giant initially fell 1.7% and closed down 0.2%, stepping back from a one-week high. Analysts say that if General Motors returns to negotiations with the union, it may face a cost of $200 million. The second largest department store and variety retailer in the United States, Target, saw its stock rise nearly 18%, marking its largest increase since 2019 and the highest stock price in three months. Its third-quarter EPS profit far exceeded market expectations, with revenue declining YoY but still higher than expected.

On the other hand, discount retail chain TJX Companies fell more than 3% to a monthly low. Its third-quarter profits and revenue both exceeded expectations, and it has raised its full-year guidance for the third time this year, expecting a strong holiday shopping season.

European stocks rose again. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.42%, marking its third consecutive increase to an eight-week high since September 21, with technology stocks leading the way with a gain of over 2%. The unexpected cooling of inflation has helped the UK's FTSE 100 index erase its losses for the year and turn into a slight cumulative gain. The German and French stock indices have also risen for three consecutive days, and the Italian bank index has reached its highest closing level since January 2016.

US bond yields rise across the board, recovering from yesterday's nearly half decline, European bond yields move away from two-month lows

The unexpected cooling of US PPI inflation initially caused US bond yields to decline. However, the overall better-than-expected retail sales data highlighted the resilience of the US economy. At the same time, traders increased their bearish bets after the rebound in the global bond market, causing US bond yields to rebound significantly and recover from yesterday's nearly half decline.

Yields on 5 to 10-year bonds rose by 10 basis points at midday, reversing the trend of a 20 basis point drop in key yields between 2-year and 10-year bonds after yesterday's unexpected cooling of CPI. However, the benchmark bond yield has fallen by about 60 basis points from the sixteen-year high set last month.

The 2-year bond yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose the most by 12 basis points and approached 4.94%, moving away from its two-week low. The 10-year benchmark bond yield also rose by 12 basis points to 4.56%, moving away from its seven-week low since September 22. The 30-year long bond yield rebounded by more than 10 basis points from its daily low and briefly rose above 4.70%.

US bond yields rise across the board, recovering from yesterday's nearly half decline

European bond yields also rose following the increase in US bond yields, moving away from the two-month lows reached during the trading session. The yield on the 10-year German benchmark bond in the eurozone rose by more than 4 basis points to 2.64% at the end of the day, after briefly falling below 2.57%, the lowest since mid-September. Yesterday, it fell by 11 basis points, marking the largest monthly decline in a month, and the 2-year German bond yield rose back above the 3% mark. The bond yields of France and Italy also rose by more than 3 basis points, and yields on UK bonds with maturities ranging from 10 to 50 years rose by at least 7 basis points.

Oil prices fall 2% intraday, erasing weekly gains; US oil falls below $77, Brent briefly falls below $81

Earlier, US crude oil inventories increased significantly over the past two weeks, and oil production reached a new high. WTI December futures closed down $1.60, or 2.04%, at $76.66 per barrel. Brent January futures closed down $1.34, or 1.62%, at $81.18 per barrel.

WTI crude oil fell the most by $1.93, or 2.5%, breaking through the $78 and $77 levels; Brent crude oil fell the most by $1.67, or 2%, briefly falling below the $81 level, deviating from the daily high of $83, and erasing the weekly gains.

Oil prices fall 2%, erasing weekly gains

Over the past two weeks, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) official statistics showed an increase of 17.5 million barrels in crude oil inventories, reaching the highest level since August at 439 million barrels. Crude oil inventories at the delivery location of the US oil futures, Cushing, also increased to the highest level since September.

US oil production remains at a historical high of 13.2 million barrels per day, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Brent crude oil has fallen 15% since approaching $100 six weeks ago, completely erasing the gains from the recent Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Last week, it fell to a three-month low.

However, a recent media survey shows that Saudi Arabia may extend its policy of cutting oil supplies by 1 million barrels per day until early 2024.

European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell more than 2.4%, and ICE UK futures fell more than 1.7%, both rising and then falling during the session. US natural gas futures rose more than 5%, potentially ending the trend of daily declines last week.

US dollar strengthens and stabilizes above 104; pound falls nearly 100 points, yen falls below 151; offshore RMB hovers around 7.26; Bitcoin rises 5%

The US dollar index, which measures against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.4% and stabilized above 104. Yesterday, it fell 1.6% and fell below this level, marking the lowest level in more than ten weeks since September 1 and the largest decline in a year.

US dollar index slightly rises, stabilizes above 104

The euro against the US dollar fell slightly but remained above 1.08. Yesterday, it rose 1.8% to the highest level since the end of August. The pound fell the most by 0.7% or nearly 100 points, hitting a low of 1.24, following a 1.8% rise yesterday to a two-month high of 1.25, the largest annual increase. The Japanese yen fell 0.7% against the US dollar and fell below the 151 level, retreating from a one-week high. Japan's GDP for the third quarter unexpectedly turned negative, with an annualized quarterly decline of 2.1%. The offshore renminbi briefly fell below 7.26 yuan, a decrease of 160 points from the previous day's closing price. Earlier, it had risen above 7.24 yuan, benefiting from positive economic data. The Russian ruble rose to 89 against the US dollar for the first time since July 4, with Russia's GDP growing by 5.5% in the third quarter, exceeding all analysts' expectations and reaching the fastest pace in nearly two years.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are rising together. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose more than 5% to $37,400, hovering around its highest level since April last year. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose more than 3% and broke through $2,000, moving away from a one-week low. At the beginning of the month, it had risen above $2,100 to a seven-month high.

Bitcoin rose more than 5% to $37,400, hovering around its highest level since April last year.

Spot gold fell slightly and fell below $1,960, London metals rose for three consecutive days, copper reached a six-week high, zinc rose 2% for two consecutive days

The strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields put pressure on gold prices. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,964.30 per ounce, while December silver futures rose 1.8% to $23.54 per ounce.

Spot gold fell 0.4% and fell below the $1,960 level, moving away from the one-week high of $1,970 reached during the trading session. However, spot silver, which rose nearly 4% yesterday, rose more than 2% again and stabilized above the $23 level.

Some analysts believe that the cooling of CPI and PPI inflation is positive for precious metals and will continue to support gold prices, as the expectation of further decline in inflation increases market bets that the Federal Reserve has completed its rate hikes.

Spot gold fell slightly and fell below $1,960.

The prospects of demand brought by China-US economic data have boosted London industrial metals for three consecutive days. The "Copper Doctor," an economic indicator, rose 0.4% and stabilized above $8,200, reaching a six-week high since October 2, approaching the 100-day moving average resistance level.

London aluminum continued to move away from a two-week low, and London zinc rose for two consecutive days to nearly a seven-week high. London lead, which rose 1.5% yesterday, rose another 2% to an eight-week high. London tin, which rose 1% for two consecutive days, rose 0.5% to a four-week high. London nickel fell back to its lowest level since May 2021.