Li Bin's all-in bet

For the past few months, NIO has been shrouded in uncertainty and is still waiting for a turnaround signal.

During the performance conference on December 5th, Chairman Li Bin appeared calm and confident, but the market position of this new force has long since faded.

This year, NIO has sold a total of 142,000 vehicles, less than half of the desired 326,000 vehicles, and even after the introduction of 8 new models on the NT2 platform, the monthly sales have not exceeded 20,000 vehicles, resulting in continuous losses for the company.

Li Bin's obsession with the ecosystem has led NIO to engage in self-developed chips, high-end smartphones, the development of 150-degree large batteries, extensive deployment of battery swap stations, and various overseas ventures. The huge human and financial costs incurred by these endeavors are now seen as expensive and untimely.

As the end of the year approaches, Li Bin has finally given a clear assessment of the current situation and prioritized survival. In fact, since November, NIO has initiated a difficult self-rescue operation.

The first step is to initiate layoffs. On November 3rd, Li Bin issued an internal memo announcing a reduction of about 10% of the workforce. In the face of various doubts from the outside world, President Qin Lihong has been busy "putting out fires" and responded by saying, "NIO will not go bankrupt, nor is there any possibility of bankruptcy."

During this performance conference, Li Bin also admitted that there are many inefficient and redundant parts in NIO's operations, and there is a huge gap in sales capabilities compared to BBA (BMW, Benz, Audi).

Therefore, Li Bin regards the next two years as crucial. "Starting from July and August, every department of the company has been working on a very detailed two-year business plan. The market is changing too fast, so this time we need to thoroughly consider the two-year plan. The research and development and resource investment cycles of many products are about two years."

During these critical two years, Li Bin has identified three priorities.

For key technology departments such as autonomous driving and chips, not only have there been no layoffs, but there have also been increases in personnel and investment. In terms of sales, efforts will be made to achieve a monthly sales capacity of 30,000 vehicles and to significantly improve efficiency to cope with market competition. In terms of products, the focus is on ensuring the timely launch of 9 models under the three brands.

As for other business projects that cannot improve the company's financial performance within the next three years, they will either be canceled, delayed, or outsourced.

Taking a closer look at NIO's "comeback plan," product development becomes a top priority.

In addition to minor updates to the current 8 models next year, NIO will also unveil a brand-new flagship model at the NIO DAY event on December 23rd. Li Bin said, "This car is the epitome of NIO's technological innovation and will become the new benchmark." Industry insiders speculate that this may be their luxury sedan "ET9" targeting the Maybach.

At the same time, NIO is also preparing to make its first move into the 200,000-300,000 RMB mid-to-low-end market with the Alpine series. Li Bin revealed that the first model of the Alpine series has completed trial production and is in "very good condition."

Li Bin stated that the product competitiveness of the NT2 platform models will be further enhanced next year. And he firmly believes that, in addition to the further enrichment of the product lineup, the "battery swap card" will continue to play an important role."NIO's sales in the Yangtze River Delta region, including Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, have surpassed those of traditional fuel-powered cars such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz," said Li Bin. He emphasized that this transformation is brought about by the infrastructure of battery swapping, and therefore, NIO will continue to invest in expanding its network.

However, this time, NIO has partnered with other automakers such as Changan and Geely to share the battery swapping infrastructure, reducing its own investment pressure while also seeking profits from B2B services. Li Bin also revealed that NIO does not rule out the possibility of spinning off its NIO POWER (energy services) division to operate independently and seek separate financing.

Products and services are just the surface. NIO is determined to regain control over production, manufacturing, and supply chain weaknesses that new players in the industry generally face, as well as the limitations of relying on contract manufacturing.

On December 5th, according to an announcement by JAC Motors, NIO spent 3.158 billion yuan to acquire its factory assets for independent production. Li Bin explained, "If we manufacture everything ourselves, costs will decrease by 10%." NIO's annual report shows that from 2020 to 2022, NIO paid JAC Motors fees of 530 million yuan, 720 million yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan, respectively.

After implementing measures such as layoffs and postponing or canceling certain peripheral projects, NIO's management stated that these adjustments will save the company approximately 2 billion yuan in costs by 2024.

NIO's series of actions, combined with its cash reserves of 45.2 billion yuan in the third quarter, a return to double-digit gross margins, and narrowing losses, have restored investor confidence. NIO's stock price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also rose from 56.45 Hong Kong dollars on December 5th to 60.45 Hong Kong dollars per share at the close on December 7th.

However, whether NIO can truly rebound in the coming years and whether its stock price has a chance to return to its previous high of nearly 500 yuan per share will ultimately depend on the effectiveness of its transformation. And at the core of it all is sales.

"The foundation of long-termism is that short-term execution must be in place, and fierce competition leaves us no room for error," Li Bin warned internally. He stated, "The next two years will be the most fiercely competitive period of transformation in the automotive industry. We must be mentally prepared and let go of many illusions."

Having teetered on the edge of the cliff multiple times and always sitting on a roller coaster, Li Bin seems to "enjoy" this feeling. He once described himself as having the "instinct" to rescue himself from the edge of the cliff.

But this time, as the battle reaches its climax and the winners and losers become clear, can he once again rescue himself and NIO?

Li Bin's answer remains affirmative. He believes that with the establishment of the battery swapping alliance, improved organizational efficiency, and the launch of sub-brands, NIO has the confidence to surpass the most intense qualifying rounds and secure a spot in the finals.

Perhaps this crucial two-year plan is Li Bin's final gamble and a battle that NIO cannot afford to lose.