The Mystery of Tesla Cybertruck's Limited Production: Insufficient Batteries or Hungry Marketing?

Tesla warned last month that it would take some time before it could start mass production of the Tesla. At that time, people thought that this futuristic Cybertruck would be difficult to manufacture. In recent days, there have been reports that the 4680 battery it uses can only meet 10% of the demand, and the production target may not be achieved as scheduled.

Now, some institutions believe that the production limit of Tesla may be just a marketing strategy.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jones stated in a recent report that Tesla may follow Ferrari's approach and maintain a situation of supply shortage in the foreseeable future.

Will Tesla adopt Ferrari's limited edition production strategy?

Tesla may intentionally limit production to maintain scarcity while focusing company resources on higher-profit products.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS estimate that by 2024, Tesla's production will only be 48,500 vehicles, but there will be a qualitative leap by 2025, with deliveries expected to be between 78,000 and 230,000 vehicles.

Among these three investment banks, Morgan Stanley is the most pessimistic, predicting that Tesla's production next year will be 30,000 vehicles and 78,000 vehicles by 2025.

Earlier reports stated that Tesla's pre-orders have exceeded 1 million vehicles. If Morgan Stanley's prediction is accurate, even if only 20% of the pre-orders are converted into actual purchases, Tesla will still be far from meeting the demand two years later. This means that Tesla will still have a place in the market in the coming years.

In October, Tesla warned during an earnings call that increasing production would be "extremely difficult" and it may not achieve an annual delivery of 250,000 vehicles until 2025. However, according to a recent article by Wall Street CN, battery production has become a major obstacle for Tesla to achieve its production goals.

Tesla has encountered problems in producing the 4680 battery using the new dry coating technology. At the current speed of the Texas factory, this battery can only meet the demand for equipping 24,000 Tesla vehicles in a year, which is about 10% of the truck production required by Tesla.

The above estimated numbers do not include the diversion of the 4680 battery to supply other models. Tesla has previously stated that it plans to use the 4680 battery for the low-cost electric vehicle priced at $25,000, also known as the Model 2. Previously, some analysts believed that Cybertruck might once again boost Tesla's overall sales with its brand halo effect, just like in 2022.

When Model Y was first launched in 2020, investors were concerned that it would cannibalize the sales of Model 3. However, in 2022, the sales of Model 3 in the US exceeded that of 2020, and the sales of Model Y also exceeded 250,000 units. Last year, Tesla's total sales in the US increased by 150% compared to 2020, and both Model Y and Model 3 were hot sellers.