Rating Quick Look | Top Picks for Large-cap Chinese Stocks: Tencent, Alibaba-SWR, PDD are highly regarded!
UBS Group AG believes that this year, Chinese internet stocks will face six major themes, including industry competition, optimizing traffic monetization, overseas markets, profit growth, shareholder returns, and AI investments. The bank prefers Tencent, New Oriental, Pinduoduo, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Meituan.
Haitong Securities: Maintains "Outperform" rating on TENCENT, target price of HKD 407
Although TENCENT's short-term revenue is under pressure, confidence in its growth prospects for 2024 is maintained. The bank estimates that TENCENT's total revenue in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 7% YoY to RMB 156 billion, lower than market expectations, mainly due to lower forecasts for game and advertising revenue; during the same period, adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 30% YoY to RMB 38.5 billion, also lower than market expectations, and the bank has raised its forecast for operating expenses.
UBS: Bullish on TENCENT, PDD, and BABA-SWR among Chinese tech stocks this year
The bank believes that Chinese tech stocks will face six major themes this year, including industry competition, optimizing traffic monetization, overseas markets, profit growth, shareholder returns, and AI investments. The bank still believes that the risk-return profile of this industry is attractive, with relatively low valuations and low investor positions, favorable regulatory background, and ultimately improving macroeconomic conditions. With the support of improved company operations, there is still room for profit margin expansion.
However, the bank points out that due to the need for macroeconomic recovery to form an upward trend, investment sentiment may still be fragile in the near term. The bank believes that entering 2024, in the uncertain macroeconomic recovery, companies with specific product drivers, visibility of earnings, and active share buybacks can outperform the market.
The bank expresses a preference for TENCENT, New Oriental, PDD, Kuaishou, BABA-SWR, and Meituan.
JPMorgan: Downgrades Yum China to "Neutral" and places it on the negative watchlist
The report points out that Yum China outperforms its peers in the three fundamental factors of the restaurant industry: supply chain, store operations, and innovation. The bank also has a positive view on its long-term prospects. However, it is concerned about the short-term impact of slowing mainland demand and the impact of increased discount promotions on profit margins.
On the other hand, the expansion of major mainland brands' stores has led to an imbalance between supply and demand in the industry. Until prices return to normal, the pressure on industry profit margins will intensify. The bank's earnings forecasts for Yum China for the next two years are 7% to 11% lower than market expectations.
Since January 2020, Yum China's stock price has outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 31%. The bank believes that the pressure on profit margins has not been fully reflected in the stock price. It downgrades its rating on the stock from "Buy" to "Neutral," removes it from the preferred stock list, and places it on the negative watchlist. It is expected that the stock price will fluctuate before or on February 7th, when the earnings are announced. The target price is lowered from $65 to $38.
Dahua Jixian: Lists the latest preferred Chinese stocks
The bank's latest list of preferred Chinese stocks includes the addition of Yin Yu and Ctrip, believing that both stocks will benefit from the peak season of Lunar New Year tourism, and expects Yin Yu's market share to continue to increase in the first quarter of this year. Dahua Jixian's preferred Hong Kong stocks also include ANTA, COSCO SHIPPING Ports, CR Vanguard, CSPC Pharmaceutical, Sinopharm Group, Lenovo Group, Longfor, NetEase, PDD, and Sunac China, all of which are rated as "Buy."
The bank states that it has taken profits on Guizhou Maotai from its previous buy list and has set stop-loss orders for Chang'an Automobile, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, and Kuaishou. The bank also recommends selling BYD and Geely due to the potential negative impact of reduced car purchase subsidies.