Analysis Report | Is even Netflix, known for "content is king," struggling?

In the past 18 months, there have been continuous news of large media companies laying off a large number of employees: Disney (DIS.US) has laid off thousands of employees and cut billions of dollars from its budget. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US) has also been downsizing, although on a smaller scale. This wave of layoffs in many ways began with Netflix, which lost customers in the first half of 2022. However, while other media companies talk about how many shows they will cut, Netflix did not. Netflix has reduced some employees and halted budget growth, but it has not undergone a true "purge". But now, even the seemingly invincible Netflix is starting to feel the pressure.

Netflix has axed over 100 shows

Due to two strikes across the United States leading to production shutdowns, Netflix has done something unprecedented: reducing the release of shows. Data from the website What's On Netflix, which reports on this streaming giant, shows that the number of original programs released by the company in 2023 decreased by about 130, a decrease of 16% compared to the previous year.

Over the past decade, the number of new original programs from the company has increased, but the output per quarter has been declining in the past year. This is true for every major programming category. Netflix has reduced the number of movies, TV shows, documentaries, and stand-up comedy specials it releases. In the last three months of 2023, Netflix released the fewest new series in five years.

There is a clear reason for this decline. Although the company stated that the strikes by writers and actors did not have a significant impact on its schedule, the decline in production in the second half of this year is greater than in the first half. Data from What's On Netflix shows that the number of TV dramas released by Netflix in the second half of this year decreased by about 60, a decrease of about 25%.

The consequences of the strikes will continue to affect Netflix's release schedule for at least a few more years. Streaming services have completed the production of many TV dramas scheduled to be released in 2023, but they have just started production on many TV dramas scheduled for release in 2024 and 2025. Many of these projects have been delayed (or canceled).

This is true for the entire Hollywood industry. The 2024 movie lineup looks a bit sparse because some big films have been pushed back to 2025. But this is not just a temporary downturn. Netflix plans to produce fewer shows in the future. Film director Scott Stuber outlined the strategy of producing fewer (but hopefully better) projects. While the strikes may have reduced the output of new scripted programs, the release of new documentaries and stand-up comedy specials by this streaming service has also decreased—these two types have basically not been affected by the strikes. We have seen this situation in comedy before. Netflix flooded the market with comedy specials, becoming the birthplace of stand-up comedy, and then scaled back production. It is still the largest investor in stand-up comedy specials, but its investment amount is not as high as it was in 2017 and 2018.

Over the past decade, Netflix has expanded the production scale of original films and TV shows at an unprecedented pace, aiming to occupy as much of the market as possible. It has gone from releasing a few original works in 2013 to dozens, even hundreds. It also wanted to make up for the loss of licensed games from other studios. Netflix is now the leading television network in the world, and other film companies have also regained their licenses to the company.

The good news is that the decrease in output has not affected Netflix's business. The company added over 16 million customers in the first 9 months of 2023 and expects to add millions more in the final quarter. The rate at which users cancel their subscriptions is much lower than that of its competitors. Netflix's output is still so high that it is unclear whether customers will notice the reduction in shows. After all, Netflix still produces more scripted programs than any other company. However, writers and producers will notice the decrease in job opportunities.

The conclusion drawn by management is that the current level of expenditure can be maintained for now, with a reduction in output while still increasing sales. Netflix has benefited from cracking down on password sharing and introducing cheaper ad-supported tiers.

Weaker Competitors

The media companies that are Netflix's competitors are in a weaker position, which is helpful. Disney, Paramount Universal (PARA.US), Warner Bros. Discovery, and NBC Universal's cable television networks are losing viewers every day, while their smaller streaming services face higher user churn. Pressure from shareholders has forced them to cut program expenses and cancel many shows, including projects in development (for example, Amazon canceled the planned TV series Magnificent Seven).

But cutting expenses alone is not enough. They also need new sources of revenue, which prompts them to turn to Netflix. Warner Bros. has already sold several popular series to Netflix, including the spin-off of the most popular streaming show in the US in December, "Young Sheldon."

The show started airing on Netflix on November 24th. In its first week on Netflix, the ratings soared and then doubled in the following week. Netflix has repeatedly achieved such feats, launching shows from other companies such as "Suits" (Universal), "Six Feet Under" (HBO), "The Pacific" (HBO), and "SWAT" (Sony/CBS). Netflix initially used other companies' shows to attract viewers, and now it is once again using these shows to please its audience.