Rating Quick Look | Tesla, Tencent, Meituan, Target Price All Downgraded! Microsoft, BYD Receive Positive Outlook

Why has the target price of Tesla been significantly lowered?

Morgan Stanley has lowered the target price of Tesla by 9% to $345, down from $380, citing that Tesla will face more challenges this year! However, based on the latest closing price, this means that the stock still has a 65% upside potential!

Bank of America Securities: Maintains "Buy" rating on TENCENT, lowers target price to HKD 458.5

The report states that the forecast for the company's fourth-quarter revenue has been revised down from RMB 159 billion to RMB 154 billion, a YoY increase of 6%. This is mainly based on the bank's reduction in the forecast for game revenue growth, from a YoY increase of 6% to zero. The bank believes that quarterly game revenue will be affected by a high base and limited contribution from new games. Short-term catalysts include the launch of potential new games during the peak period of the Chinese New Year and the final determination of game regulations in China.

The bank expects TENCENT's advertising business and financial technology and enterprise services to maintain strong momentum, with quarterly revenue expected to increase by 18% and 14% YoY, respectively. As the company transitions to a high-quality growth model, the bank views gross margin as a more important business indicator compared to revenue. The bank also maintains its forecast for a 6 percentage point YoY increase in TENCENT's quarterly gross margin to 49% and a 22% YoY increase in gross profit. Adjusted net profit is expected to increase by over 30% YoY to RMB 39 billion.

CICC: Lowers Meituan's target price by 16% to HKD 119

Maintains the forecast for Meituan's fourth-quarter revenue to increase by 20% YoY and non-GAAP net profit to reach RMB 3.4 billion. The bank has lowered its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024, taking into account weak macro consumption and intensified competition. It also believes that the group is facing certain pressures in all its businesses. However, the current stock price already reflects the market's pessimistic expectations.

The bank predicts a compound annual growth rate of 18% for the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025. CICC mentioned that the group announced a $1 billion repurchase program at the end of November last year and conducted its first repurchase on January 10th. As of January 19th, the company has repurchased RMB 400 million worth of shares for 7 trading days, providing some support to the stock price. Therefore, the bank believes that the market does not need to be overly pessimistic and maintains its profit forecast for 2023 unchanged. It has lowered its revenue forecast for 2024 by 3% to RMB 324.9 billion and its non-GAAP net profit forecast by 14% to RMB 29.2 billion.

The bank predicts that the company's revenue will reach RMB 384.1 billion in 2025, with a YoY increase of 18%, and its non-GAAP net profit will reach RMB 44.5 billion, with a YoY increase of 52%.

CICC: Lowers Baidu's target price for US and Hong Kong stocks by 12.1% to $151.6 and HKD 146.9, respectively

The bank predicts that Baidu's total revenue for the last quarter will increase by 5% YoY to RMB 34.8 billion, with Baidu's core revenue increasing by 7% YoY to RMB 27.4 billion. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be RMB 5.6 billion, with Baidu's core non-GAAP net profit at RMB 5.2 billion. Considering the disturbance in the macro environment, CICC has lowered its revenue forecast for Baidu in 2023 and 2024 by 1% and 2% to RMB 134.4 billion and RMB 144.6 billion respectively. The forecast for non-GAAP net profit in 2023 has been lowered by 1% to RMB 26.6 billion, while the forecast for 2024 non-GAAP net profit remains unchanged. CICC has also introduced revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, at RMB 156.1 billion and RMB 31.7 billion respectively.

CICC maintains its outperform rating on Baidu, but has lowered its target prices for Baidu's US and Hong Kong stocks due to the valuation adjustment of autonomous driving and external investments.

Goldman Sachs has set a target price of HKD 346 for BYD H shares and maintains a "buy" rating.

The report states that BYD's management expects the sales of new energy vehicles to reach 3.9 million to 4 million units in 2024, with 20% of the revenue coming from high-end brands. The management expects the overall industry wholesale volume of new energy vehicles to reach 11 million units in 2024.

BYD's management believes that the sluggish January sales in the automotive industry are due to weak demand since the beginning of the year. Although the growth of the passenger car industry is slow, the penetration rate is still expected to increase. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 45% or even 50% in 2024. At the same time, the competition is expected to be relatively moderate in the price range of RMB 200,000 to RMB 300,000, while more intense in the range of RMB 150,000 to RMB 200,000.

Nomura reaffirms its "buy" rating on TENCENT Music-SW and raises its target price to HKD 40.

The company will announce its fourth-quarter results in mid-March. Nomura believes that the recent stock price volatility is related to market concerns about whether paid users can be retained, but it also provides a good buying opportunity.

Nomura expects TENCENT Music's fourth-quarter revenue to decline by 10% YoY to RMB 6.7 billion, but increase by 2% QoQ. The growth in music subscription and advertising revenue offsets the continuous decline in streaming revenue. It is expected that subscription revenue will increase by 42% YoY to RMB 3.3 billion, while social entertainment revenue will decline by 52% to RMB 1.9 billion. Considering the continuous growth in subscription revenue, the gross profit margin of the group is expected to expand by 290 basis points YoY to 35.9%, and non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase by 1% to RMB 1.5 billion.

The report believes that the incremental gross profit contributed by the improvement in ARPPU (average revenue per paying user) will be greater than previously expected, which is expected to drive the online music gross profit margin to reach about 35% this year. Therefore, Nomura has raised its profit forecast for TENCENT Music by 3% for this year and by 1% to 2% for 2023 to 2025 to reflect the upward revision of the music gross profit margin forecast.

Morgan Stanley has raised its target price for Microsoft from $415 to $450.