"Whiz Kid" Strategist: The recent surge in US stocks depends on the earnings reports of tech giants and the attitude of the Federal Reserve.

According to Zhitong App, Tom Lee, the Head of Strategy Research at Fundstrat, stated that investors are focusing on a busy week ahead, as the earnings reports of major tech companies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be released. These factors may greatly impact whether the US stock market will experience a short-term correction or continue to rise. "New King of Stocks" Microsoft (MSFT.US), whose market value has just surpassed Apple and exceeded $3 trillion, as well as Alphabet-C (GOOGL.US), the parent company of Alphabet-C-C, will announce their latest earnings reports after the close of trading on Tuesday. Meta Platforms (META.US), Apple (AAPL.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US) will release their earnings reports on Thursday.

As of the close of trading on Monday, the stock prices of Alphabet-C-C, Meta, and Microsoft all reached new highs during Monday's trading session, and Amazon is also heading towards a new high. The surge in large-cap tech stocks has driven the S&P 500 index, the benchmark for the US stock market, to continue setting new records, closing above 4,900 points for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed at a new high on Monday.

It is understood that the five largest US tech companies with a combined market value of over $10 trillion will release their earnings reports this week, including the "New King of Stocks" Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and the parent company of Alphabet-C, Alphabet-C-C. The key performance data of these tech giants will become the focus of global stock markets, and their performance may influence the risk appetite of global stock investors.

In the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index, the benchmark index for the US stock market, has reached a new high for the first time in two years, and more importantly, this upward trend is still continuing. However, whether this new round of gains can continue will face a high-intensity test during the intensive bombardment of earnings reports from US tech giants this week (January 29th to February 2nd). These tech giants, which have a high weight in the S&P 500 index, led the US stock market into a technical bull market in 2023 and continued to lead the market to new highs in early 2024.

"We expect the US stock market to reach another new high by the end of January, which is going according to plan," said Tom Lee, the Head of Strategy Research at Fundstrat, in an interview with the media this week. "I think this week will tell us how far the S&P 500 index can go in the near future."

He said, "We expect the S&P 500 index to approach 5,000 points in the near future and may continue to rise." "But from there, I think there will be an air pocket." Tom Lee stated that this is because investors will be dealing with another key catalyst in the next week or so, apart from the earnings reports of major tech companies: the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, which will make the final interest rate decision on Wednesday (early morning Beijing time).Traders in the interest rate futures market unanimously believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. This makes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the press conference and his potential choice to send or not send any signals related to interest rate cuts crucial. Any wording related to "rate cuts" by Chairman Powell, whether it shows a hawkish or dovish tone, is the core focus of global investors.

Tom Lee said that investors will be nervous about the Federal Reserve's policy and its future path. He said, "I don't think the Federal Reserve will directly reveal when they will cut rates, but what's important is how their view on rates will evolve."

He also pointed out that the "parabolic market trend of US stocks" since October 2023 may temporarily come to an end with a "significant pullback." "I do believe that US stocks will continue to remain strong in the future, but after a period of rising, there tends to be a significant gap," added Tom Lee.

Tom Lee remains very optimistic about the year-end target for the S&P 500 index, expecting it to end at around 5200 points by the end of 2024, ranking highest among the expectations of Wall Street investment institutions.

It is worth noting that Tom Lee's prediction for the US stock market in 2023 was extremely accurate. He had predicted at the end of 2022 that the S&P 500 index would soar more than 20% throughout 2023, reaching around 4750 points by the end of the year. The benchmark index closed at around 4769 points at the end of last year, falling short of Tom Lee's target expectation by less than 1%. In contrast, the pessimistic expectations of major financial institutions on Wall Street, such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase, were completely off the mark in the "bull market of US stocks" in 2023.

In mid-December of last year, Goldman Sachs and the Royal Bank of Canada raised their expectations for the US stock market. David Kostin, a star strategist from Goldman Sachs, raised his year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5100 points, nearly 9% higher than his prediction in mid-November last year of 4700 points. UBS, on the other hand, is the latest major commercial bank to raise its expectations for the S&P 500 index. The bank recently raised its forecast for the S&P 500 index in 2024 by 6% to 5150 points. Just about a month ago, UBS' target price was still 4850 points.