The most accurate forecaster of the US stock market for 23 years continues to be bullish: The target price of 5200 is too low for SPDR S&P 500!
Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 is expected to rise by 15% this year, reaching 5500 points by the end of the year.
Top bullish predictions for the US stock market in 2023 indicate that the market's performance at the beginning of the year is just an appetizer, and the potential increase in the stock market for 2024 has been underestimated.
Tom Lee, the Chief Strategist at Fundstrat, stated in a recent report that considering the increase in Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 in January, his target price of 5200 points by the end of 2024 may be too low.
Lee believes that unless there is a significant sell-off in the US stock market during the release of various data this week, historical experience suggests that the annual increase in Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 could reach double digits.
According to his statistics, in the past 74 years, when the market increased by 15% in the previous year (a total of 28 times) and had positive returns in January (a total of 13 times), the median increase in Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 for the whole year was 16%.
Furthermore, as long as the above conditions are met, in 92% of cases, the market's annual return is positive, with the only exception being in 2018 when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction caused this pattern to fail.
Therefore, he has made a bolder prediction for the performance of the US stock market this year: 5500 points!
If the barometer for January is correct, our target for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 could reach as high as 5500 points or even higher.
At the beginning of 2023, Lee predicted that the US stock market would increase by over 20% to reach 4750 points. As a result, by the end of last year, the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 closed at 4783.35 points. Lee surpassed other strategists and became the most accurate forecaster for the US stock market in 2023.
Based on the closing price of 4845.65 points on Wednesday, the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 still has a 13% upward potential to reach Lee's target price. Looking at the whole year, to achieve this target price, the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 would need to increase by 15%.
