Preview | It's coming tomorrow! Alibaba's earnings report is coming, what should we pay attention to?

Can the "Price War" campaign drive YoY growth in GMV? Is there still room for improvement in the profit margin of BABA-SWR's cloud business? How competitive is the international e-commerce business? In terms of specific data, Wall Street expects BABA-SWR's quarterly revenue to be CNY 261.706 billion, a YoY increase of 5.6%; adjusted net profit is CNY 47.881 billion, a YoY decrease of 4.9%.

Tomorrow! On February 7th, before the US stock market opens, Alibaba will announce its financial results for the third quarter ending in December last year.

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street's average forecast for Alibaba's third-quarter revenue is RMB 261.706 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%; adjusted net profit is RMB 47.881 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%.

Apart from the data, what should we pay attention to?

TF Securities: Expecting pressure on Taotian CRM revenue, while international business maintains high growth

"Price War" driving GMV YoY growth to turn positive

TF Securities expects Alibaba's China commerce revenue for the quarter to reach RMB 123.2 billion, a YoY growth of 0.3%.

As the largest online retail platform, considering:

The company's commitment to the "Price War" strategy, driving GMV growth and narrowing the gap with industry growth; 2) The "Price War" strategy attracting small and medium-sized merchants to shift to Taobao, resulting in an increase in Taobao's GMV share and pressure on commission income; CRM revenue growth is expected to be slightly lower than GMV.

Continued expansion of competitiveness in cloud business and international e-commerce business

TF Securities expects a 2% YoY growth in overall cloud business revenue for the quarter; and expects international commerce revenue to reach RMB 26.1 billion, a YoY growth of 32%.

In the long term, BABA-SWR will optimize the revenue structure of the cloud business, reduce low-profit project-based contract revenue, and strengthen the growth of public cloud products and services. With the cumulative effect of AI efficiency improvement and cloud revenue optimization, there is still room for improvement in BABA-SWR's cloud business profit margin.

The international commerce business is mainly driven by the following factors:

Strong growth of AEChoice business driving AliExpress user base expansion. Enhancing logistics efficiency and user experience, continuously increasing business scale and market share;
Trendyol achieving profitable scale and further expanding in the Middle East market while maintaining high-speed growth;
Stable growth of Lazada in the Southeast Asian market and continuous improvement in commercialization rate.

Due to the impact of global business expansion and high-speed growth, it is predicted that the international commerce business may incur losses or expand losses on a MoM basis.

Stable growth expected in other businesses

TF Securities expects local services revenue for the quarter to reach RMB 14.2 billion, a YoY growth of 6%; and expects Cainiao revenue to reach RMB 29.2 billion, a YoY growth of 27%, maintaining high-speed growth on a MoM basis, due to the impact of the growth of international business driving logistics services.