Internal divisions within major banks have become the norm, and the resilience of the US economy has left both the bulls and bears in a state of confusion.
JPMorgan Chase's chief market strategist has issued a warning, stating that tech stocks are overvalued and high interest rates will cause a global economic slowdown. However, traders within the bank believe that now is a good time to buy US stocks. They argue that the earnings of large tech companies will drive the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 higher, although the pace may slow down. JPMorgan Chase's view is contrary to that of the traders, who are concerned about inflation risks, high interest rates leading to economic slowdown, and overly optimistic profit expectations. However, the stock market has defied the research team's expectations for two consecutive years. This year, the US stock market seems to be continuing this trend.
According to Zhitong App, Marko Kolanovic, the Chief Market Strategist at JPMorgan Chase, has been continuously warning that tech stocks are overvalued and high interest rates will cause a global economic slowdown. However, there are also voices within the bank's trading team advocating for buying US stocks at the current time.
The trading team, including Andrew Tyler, the Head of US Market Intelligence, retracted their cautious stance on stocks in January in a client note. They stated that their previous position was "too conservative" and based on concerns about earnings and the pullback after last year's rally, whereas now they are "tactically bullish."
Tyler and his colleagues wrote, "Setting aside self-blame, what has changed? The main change is the earnings of large tech companies, whose stock prices are decoupling from bond yields. In addition, the macro story continues to reveal an economy that is maintaining a pace above trend, with no substantial signs of a slowdown in the near term."
They expect this advantage to translate into strong revenue growth, with large tech companies driving the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 (which has set record after record this year) to continue rising, albeit at a potentially slower pace.
The optimism of JPMorgan Chase traders contrasts sharply with the views of the bank's research team. The research team, including Chief Market Strategist Kolanovic and Head of US Equity and Quantitative Strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, has been contrarian this year, sounding the alarm on the stock market amid various intersecting forces: the return of inflation risks, economic slowdown due to high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and overly optimistic earnings expectations.
However, it is worth noting that the stock market has defied Kolanovic's expectations for the past two years. He was bullish on the stock market for most of 2022, when it experienced a major collapse, and maintained a bearish view during last year's 24% rise in the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500, reducing recommended stock allocations due to concerns about an economic recession. This year, the US stock market seems to be continuing this trend.
Even as other Wall Street strategists have raised their outlook for US stocks, JPMorgan Chase maintains the lowest year-end target among its peers, believing that the index will fall to 4,200 points by the end of 2024. On Tuesday, the benchmark index traded around 4,940 points, higher than the sell-side average forecast of 4,874 points tracked by the media.
The internal divergence at JPMorgan Chase is consistent with several other institutions, highlighting the difficulty of predicting the direction of the stock market. This uncertainty is partly due to the unexpected economic resilience, which has led traders to recently lower their expectations for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve this year.
Due to concerns of a potential economic recession last year, Wall Street forecasters widely missed the stock market rally in 2023, and overall, Wall Street is becoming increasingly optimistic this year. Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Canada, and UBS had previously released year-end forecasts for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 in 2024. They have now revised their expectations. Savita Subramanian of Bank of America told the media on Monday that her previous target of 5000 points may have been too low.
Mike Wilson, the steadfast bearish stock analyst at Morgan Stanley, has also become more optimistic. He predicts that the upward trend will expand and advises investors to hold on to high-quality growth stocks, which have the potential to outperform the market under all possible macroeconomic conditions.