Goldman Sachs has raised its target for the SPDR S&P 500 to 5200 points for the second time in two months, as tech stock performance exceeds expectations.
Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2024, the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 will rise to 5200 points. Goldman Sachs holds higher profit expectations for technology stocks, especially for leading companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet-C, and Meta Platforms among the Tech Seven.
After the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 broke through the 5,000-point mark earlier this month, Goldman Sachs strategists have raised the target price for the index in 2024 for the second time in two months.
David Kostin, the leader of the Goldman Sachs strategy team, wrote in a report to clients last Friday: "The upward revision of corporate profit expectations is the main reason for this adjustment. The economic growth in 2024 will be stronger, and corporate profits will be higher."
In November last year, Kostin initially predicted that the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 would reach 4,700 points by the end of 2024, and later raised the target to 5,100 points in mid-December. Following the breakthrough of the 5,000-point mark by the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500, Goldman Sachs currently expects the index to rise to 5,200 points by the end of this year (an increase of about 2% from December last year), making it one of the highest forecasts on Wall Street. The new target implies a 3.9% increase from last Friday's closing price.
The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook for 2024 and optimism about artificial intelligence have boosted tech stocks, driving the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 up by 4.9% this year. Bloomberg data shows that the market expects profits for the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 to increase by 8.8% compared to last year.
Goldman Sachs expects the price-to-earnings ratios of the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 and its equal-weighted index to remain at 20 times and 16 times, respectively. Goldman Sachs believes that the value growth of the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 and its equal-weighted index will mainly depend on the improvement of companies' actual profit capabilities, rather than changes in market valuation standards.
Goldman Sachs holds higher profit expectations for technology and communication companies, especially for leading companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, and Meta Platforms among the tech giants. Goldman Sachs strategists have raised the EPS forecasts for these companies for the next two years, with the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 and 2025 raised to $241 and $256, respectively, surpassing the median forecast of $235 EPS by other strategists for the same period.Other peers on Wall Street, such as Bank of America, have also raised their year-end target for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian stated earlier this month, "The 5000-point target for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 may be too low in the short term." The median target price for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 among the twelve stock strategists tracked by Bloomberg is 4950 points.
Even one of the most prominent bearish voices on Wall Street, Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley, now expects the gains in the U.S. stock market to expand beyond the technology sector. His 2024 target for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 remains at 4500 points.