During the Spring Festival, the battle between "Ice and Fire": Enlight Media, CHINA LIT may emerge as the "big winners".

The "tragic" and "hot" outcomes of the 2024 Spring Festival box office have caught everyone by surprise.

The "tragic" part is that out of the 8 films previously scheduled for the Spring Festival, 4 have been withdrawn, namely "Let's Rock the Sun Together", "Yellow Pika: The God of Wealth Cat", "Mr. Red Carpet", and "Journey to the West: The Demons Strike Back", all of which had box office earnings exceeding 1 billion yuan when they were withdrawn.

To everyone's surprise, last year's Spring Festival big winner HUANXI MEDIA (1003.HK) not only failed to replicate the success of "Man Jiang Hong", but even had to withdraw the new film "Mr. Red Carpet".

On February 19, HUANXI MEDIA's stock price fell by 6.45% to HKD 0.58.

The "hot" part is that the total box office for the season reached 80.16 billion yuan, setting a new record for the Spring Festival box office.

The 4 films remaining in the Spring Festival, "Spicy Hot", "Hi, Mom 2", "Boonie Bears: The Wild Life", and "The Twentieth Rule", are all predicted to have final box office earnings exceeding 2 billion yuan, setting a historical record. In the years 2021 to 2023, there were 2 Spring Festival films each year with box office earnings exceeding 2 billion yuan.

The market seems to be rewarding companies that have survived the "battle royale" of the Spring Festival box office.

On February 19, the first trading day after the Chinese New Year, Enlight Media (300251.SZ), the main investor and distributor of "The Twentieth Rule", surged by 5.13% to 7.99 yuan per share.

On the 18th, Enlight Media announced that as of 24:00 on February 17, "The Twentieth Rule" had accumulated box office earnings of 1.342 billion yuan, expected to contribute 400 million to 460 million yuan in revenue.

In the first half of 2023, Enlight Media's total revenue was only 605 million yuan. This film is expected to meet Enlight Media's half-year KPI.

According to information from Enlight Media insiders, the revenue share of "The Twentieth Rule" is based on Maoyan Professional Edition (12.8% to 27.1% as of February 19). Currently, Enlight Media has no other films scheduled for the first half of this year.

For Enlight Media, the good news is that the box office growth of "The Twentieth Rule" is still ongoing, and it topped the daily box office chart on February 19. According to Guotai Junan analyst Chen Xiao, "The Twentieth Rule" has shown a counter-trend growth in the later stage of the Spring Festival, with box office earnings continuously declining from the third to the fifth day, and declining again on the seventh day. Maoyan predicts that the final box office earnings will be close to 2.5 billion yuan.

As the main producer and distributor of "The Twentieth Rule", Enlight Media is expected to enjoy substantial returns after sharing with theaters and promotional channels.

Another winner of the Spring Festival box office is China Literature Group (0772.HK). The box office champion of the Spring Festival, "Spicy Hot", is produced by New Classics Media, a company 100% owned by China Literature Group. Maoyan Professional Edition predicts that the final box office earnings of "Spicy Hot" will reach as high as 40.31 billion yuan. In the secondary market, the reaction was swift. From February 14th to 19th, the stock price of Yuewen Group rose by 14.22%, but on the 19th, it fell by 3.07% to HKD 23.7 per share.

However, due to the film "Hot Hot Hot" having China Film (600977.SH) and Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK) as the production companies, with Alibaba Pictures as the main distributor, the final return that Yuewen Group can receive is still unknown due to the different profit-sharing ratios agreed upon by each party.

The second-highest box office earner during the Spring Festival, "Pegasus: Pony Life 2," is mainly invested and controlled by Shanghai Tingedong Film Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Tingedong Film"), in which Bona Film Group (001330.SZ) holds an 11% stake. In addition to Bona Film Group, there are 8 other production companies involved, including Alibaba Pictures, Maoyan Entertainment (1896.HK), and China Film. Therefore, this film was considered one of the "most luxurious" lineups before its release.

However, the involvement of multiple parties also means that the profit-sharing ratio that Bona Film Group can enjoy from "Pegasus: Pony Life 2" may not be as lucrative as the total box office suggests.

On February 19th, Bona Film Group's stock rose by 3.15% to RMB 5.56 per share.

In this Spring Festival season filled with comedy films, not many companies may ultimately be able to "laugh" their way to success. Looking at the cancellations of half of this year's films, the survival space for movies without the support of top-tier film companies has been further squeezed, leading to eventual cancellations. This reflects the Matthew Effect in the industry.