LB Select
2024.02.23 09:40
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Always trying to buy at the lowest point? How do investment masters view this?

No one can predict for sure when the peak and the trough will arrive.


This article is a compilation of insights from traders.

Buying low and selling high is the basic skill of investing. If you go against this principle, you can't claim to be an investor.

However, the concepts of high and low are not always absolute; they are often relative.

Whether it's daily, weekly, or monthly, you can always find relative highs and lows. When you see the amplitude, many people would think, "If I catch this swing, I'll make a fortune."

But we must seriously consider one thing: how many people can actually catch these absolute highs and lows?

Known as the "Bear of Wall Street," investment guru Jesse Livermore once said, he never thinks about catching the exact highest and lowest points because no one can predict when they will occur.

Therefore, focusing on capturing relative highs and lows is where we should devote our attention and energy. This way, we can make money safely and steadily within the amplitudes.

We cannot predict the timing of highs and lows, but once we confirm the direction, sacrificing some amplitude to achieve stable profits is the right mindset.

Always aiming to buy at the lowest point? How do investment gurus view this?

"The chances of successfully timing the market bottom are very slim, but if you can enter within 5% or 10% above the bottom, your profits will be amazing." — Shelby Davis

"Some people boast about selling at market highs and buying at lows. Apart from wishful thinking, I don't believe this is possible. I buy when the stock price seems low and sell when it seems high. This way, I successfully avoid being affected by extreme and destructive market fluctuations." — Bernard Baruch

"No one is more likely to buy at the bottom than Buffett, but no one realizes that attempting to do so is foolish." — Frank Martin

"For predicting major market turning points, those prophets are usually wrong." — Leon Levy

"It's very difficult to determine market turning points. My conclusion is that it's impossible." — Paul Singer

"Because the market 'bottom' is only evident in hindsight, those waiting for it always leave empty-handed." — Frank Martin

"Even in normal market conditions, traders who buy too quickly and sell too early will always feel unhappy. However, to practice the principle of buying low and selling high, traders must be prepared to face these two scenarios." — Benjamin Graham

"The lesson learned here is that we can never buy at the lowest point. Almost every stock in our portfolio has dropped after I bought it, but fortunately, most of them didn't drop too severely. I think it's normal for stock prices to fall, and I can almost anticipate it now."



"You must buy when the stock price is down, as the volume during a decline is usually higher than during an uptrend, and there are fewer competitors buying in. Buying too early is usually better than buying too late, but you must be prepared for the possibility of prices falling further." — Seth Klarman

"A smart trader will buy or sell within 20% of the high or low points. As for those who believe they are smart enough to accurately judge the highs and lows, they often end up looking more like fools than traders." — Frank Martin

"You can never know when the market is at its high point, nor can you ever know when it's at its low point." — Walter Schloss

"In my experience, most people who are lucky enough to sell before the stock market falls often forget to buy back their stocks and end up patting themselves on the back afterwards, trying to console themselves." — Howard Marks

"The most important turning points in the market are never accurately predicted by 'experts' or policymakers. This lack of foresight is not surprising because the market and a series of economic phenomena are not simulative scientific phenomena, but rather phenomena generated by large-scale human behavior, which can never be accurately predicted. What is most surprising is that the most experienced investors, traders, and commentators continue to rely on these baseless predictions." — Paul Singer

"Attempting to predict the market and waiting to enter at the lowest point has been proven to have serious flaws over the years. Historically, very few trades occur at the bottom or just after the market hits bottom. Typically, when the market stabilizes and the economy begins to recover, competition among buyers intensifies. In addition, the speed of the price rebound from the bottom may be rapid. Therefore, investors should invest during a bear market and recognize that things may get worse before they start to improve." — Seth Klarman

"No one can know where the bottom or top is, which is why we can easily enter and exit. In a bear market, we must dip our toes in the water, but not invest a large amount of capital. The worst part of a bear market is not necessarily the plethora of reports recommending short positions when the stock market is falling; it is the disappearance of liquidity for both buyers and sellers, making it difficult for you to enter and exit." — Paul Singer

Conclusion

The desire to buy at the lowest point is a manifestation of human greed and fear, fearing being trapped after buying and longing for a rise after buying. The lowest point is something we cannot grasp, and it is quite common for prices to drop after buying and rise after selling. Changing the goal from buying at the lowest point to buying in the undervalued zone is a high-probability event that is easy to grasp.