The enthusiasm for AI has waned, while SPDR S&P 500 narrowly hit a historic high, NVIDIA reached a new peak but experienced a flash drop during trading, and Chinese concept stocks continued to rise for the week.

NVIDIA's earnings report, which crushed expectations, continues to support the upward trend of US stocks, with the SPDR S&P 500 and the Dow hitting new intraday highs. However, most leading tech and chip stocks, including NVIDIA, experienced intraday declines, dragging the Nasdaq down from its high point in over two years, and the SPDR S&P 500 also briefly turned downward. Despite the waning momentum on Friday, major US stock indices continued to rise for the week, supported by the sharp gains on Thursday. Chinese concept stocks continued to rise, maintaining a weekly upward trend for the past two weeks in the Year of the Dragon.

NVIDIA, whose stock price hit record highs, initially set a precedent for chip stocks to surpass a market value of $2 trillion. Although it failed to recover most of its initial gains after an intraday "flash crash" and fell below the $2 trillion mark, it surged significantly for the whole week following a sharp rise on Thursday. Analysis by S3 Partners indicated that NVIDIA's sharp rise on Thursday caused short sellers to incur losses of around $300 billion, as they faced an "artificial intelligence (AI)-manufactured nightmare." Analysts at Bank of America believe that during a period of monetary easing in the future, the rise of AI concept stocks and the optimistic market sentiment towards economic growth are some of the "magic" factors driving further stock market gains.

On Friday, the US did not release any significant economic data, nor did any Federal Reserve officials speak. Ahead of the release of heavyweight economic data such as PCE and GDP next week, US Treasury bond prices, which had been falling for consecutive days, rebounded, causing yields to decline. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond, after hitting new highs for over two months for several days, fell below 4.30% and retreated 10 basis points from its peak due to the decline on Friday, reversing from an upward trend to a downward trend for the whole week. The yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, sensitive to interest rates, hit new highs for over two months for two consecutive days before turning downward intraday on Friday, maintaining an upward trend for the whole week, rising for four consecutive weeks.

In the currency market, the US dollar index failed to break free from its downward trend on Friday, approaching the near four-week low set on Thursday. After nearly two months of consecutive gains, the US dollar is set to experience its first weekly decline since the beginning of 2024. Analysts suggest that the multi-week rally of the US dollar this year is based on market expectations of interest rate cuts aligning with the Fed's forecast, with traders' pricing possibly reflecting the possibility of a slowdown in the US economy. Starting from the release of February non-farm payroll data on March 8th, a series of data will show signs of a weaker economy.

In the commodity market, gold rebounded after several days of decline, locking in gains for the week. International crude oil witnessed a dramatic reversal, plunging significantly after hitting a new high for over three months on Thursday. Intraday, it dropped by at least 3%, with US oil closing at a two-week low and Brent crude hitting a low of over a week, reversing the weekly upward trend and experiencing its first weekly decline since February. Analysts suggest that the Fed's repeated dampening of market expectations for interest rate cuts is the driving force behind the decline in oil prices. On Thursday night, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who permanently holds voting rights on the FOMC, stated that the Fed should delay the start of interest rate cuts by at least a few months. A delay in rate cuts would imply a slowdown in economic growth, suppressing demand in the oil market. The market is currently expecting the Federal Reserve to most likely start cutting interest rates in June this year, with a 20% probability of a rate cut in May. The expected magnitude of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year continues to decline, with a probability of about 70% for three rate cuts and 30% for four rate cuts.

Nasdaq falls during the day, Dow hits new historical highs for two consecutive days. Tech giants "Seven Sisters" all fell during the day, with chip stocks and AI concept stocks declining.

The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher for two consecutive days, with mixed performance during the day. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose nearly 0.6% at the beginning of the session, hitting a new intraday high since November 2021, but then fell after more than an hour of trading, dropping over 0.5% at one point in the morning, then rebounding after midday before falling again. The SPDR S&P 500 Index broke through 5100 points for the first time in history at the beginning of the session, rising nearly 0.5% during the day, but later gave back some gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average maintained its upward trend, rising over 210 points, or about 0.6%, in the morning.

In the end, only the Nasdaq closed lower among the three indexes, down 0.28% to 15,996.82 points, falling from the closing high on Thursday since November 22, 2021. The SPDR S&P 500 rose 0.03% to 5,088.80 points, while the Dow rose 62.42 points, or 0.16%, to 39,131.53 points. Both the Dow and the SPDR S&P 500 have risen for three consecutive days, hitting new historical closing highs for two days.

The Nasdaq 100 Index, dominated by tech stocks, fell 0.37% after turning lower in the morning, dropping from the record high set during the three-day winning streak. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index, fell 0.31% after turning lower in the morning, moving away from the record high set during the rebound on Thursday, with a weekly gain of 2.28%. The Russell 2000, which is mainly composed of value stocks, fell nearly 0.5% at the beginning of the session, then rose towards the end, closing up 0.14%, continuing to move away from the closing low set on February 13 after a three-day decline last Wednesday.

Due to the significant gains on Thursday, major stock indexes have risen for the week. The SPDR S&P 500, which rose 3.1% on Thursday, has gained 1.66% for the week. The Dow, which rose nearly 1.2% on Thursday, has gained 1.3% for the week. The Nasdaq, which rose nearly 3% on Thursday, has gained 1.4% for the week. The Nasdaq 100, which rose 3% on Thursday, has gained 1.42% for the week. These gains mark the sixth week of gains in the first eight weeks of the year, with only the first week and last week showing declines. The Russell 2000, however, has fallen 0.79% for the week after two weeks of gains. Due to a significant rise on Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes have collectively risen by over 1% this week.

Among the major sectors of the SPDR S&P 500, only four closed lower on Friday. The energy sector, impacted by the fall in crude oil prices, dropped by nearly 0.6%. Non-essential consumer goods, including Tesla, fell by over 0.3%. The IT sector, which includes Apple and Microsoft, also dropped by nearly 0.3%, while the communication services sector, where Meta is located, fell by 0.2%. Leading the gains among the seven sectors that closed higher was the utilities sector, up by 0.7%. All sectors have seen gains this week, with real estate up by nearly 0.9% and energy up by over 0.4%, while other sectors have risen by at least 1%, with non-essential consumer goods up by over 2%, IT up by about 2%, and materials up by nearly 2%.

In the SPDR S&P 500 sector ETFs, the energy sector ETF had the smallest increase this week, while the non-essential consumer goods sector ETF had the largest increase, followed by the IT sector ETF.

Including Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Meta's parent company Facebook, and Tesla, all seven major tech stocks experienced declines during trading. Tesla, with the largest decline, fell by 3% at midday and closed down by nearly 2%, accumulating a decline of about 4% this week. This decline comes after three consecutive weeks of gains, falling short of the nearly 14% decline in the week of the earnings report release on January 26.

Among the FAANMG six major tech stocks, Meta initially rose by nearly 1.7%, reaching a new intraday historical high, but then fell in early trading, closing down by 0.4% from the record high set on Thursday. Apple, which had risen for two consecutive days until February 13, closed down by 1%. Microsoft, which had risen for three consecutive days until February 14, closed down by 0.3%. Alphabet closed slightly lower after rising for three consecutive days until February 15. Netflix, which rebounded on Thursday to a high since February 15, closed down by 0.8%. Amazon closed up by 0.2%, rising for three consecutive days and hitting new highs not seen since November 2021.

Most of these tech stocks have seen gains this week, with Amazon up by over 3%, Alphabet up by nearly 2.5%, Meta up by over 2%, Microsoft up by over 1%, Apple up by about 0.1%, while Netflix saw a slight decline of less than 0.1%.

NVIDIA, Tesla, and the other five major tech stocks have seen overall gains this week, marking the sixth week of increases in the past seven weeks, but they experienced a slight decline this week.

Chip stocks, in general, turned lower in early trading, underperforming the broader market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closed down by about 1.1%, falling from the record highs set on Thursday. They have seen gains of 1.9% and 1.8% respectively this week. Among individual stocks, NVIDIA, which surged by 16% on Thursday, initially rose to $823.94, continuing to set new intraday highs, with an intraday increase of 4.9%. With a market value exceeding $2 trillion, NVIDIA briefly fell by over 1.2% in early trading, then turned higher and rose by nearly 2% towards the end of the morning session. The market closed up nearly 0.4%, hitting a new historical high, with a market value of less than $2 trillion. This week, following the release of the earnings report, it surged over 8.5%, far exceeding the previous week's nearly 0.7% increase. AMD, which rose over 10% on Thursday, initially fell, closing down nearly 3%. Broadcom, which rose over 6% on Thursday, initially fell over 1% in early trading, closing down nearly 0.7%. On the other hand, Intel, which fell over 1% against the market on Thursday, initially fell over 0.7% before turning higher, closing slightly up. Arm, which rose over 4% on Thursday, continued to rise, with an early increase of 5.8% and a closing increase of 3.7%.

NVIDIA rose nearly 5% in early trading before turning lower, dropping over 1% at one point, then rebounding slightly to close up.

Overall, AI concept stocks fell. By the close, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell by 11.8%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell over 5%, Palantir (PLTR) fell over 2%, C3.ai (AI) fell by nearly 2%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell over 1%, and Synopsys (SNPS), which rose nearly 7% on Thursday after announcing excellent financial results and guidance, fell by 0.9%, while Adobe (ADBE) rose by nearly 3%.

Chinese concept stocks were mixed during trading. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) initially turned lower, dropping nearly 0.5%, before rebounding to close up nearly 0.7%. It has risen for three consecutive days since January 5th, with a weekly increase of 1.7%, showing continuous gains in the Year of the Dragon. Three new energy vehicle companies all fell in early trading due to Morgan Stanley's downgrade to underweight, citing lower-than-expected revenue and a lack of new vehicle models compared to competitors. Nio fell by 7.7%, XPeng fell by 5.6%, and Li Auto fell by over 1% at one point, closing down by 0.5%. Among other individual stocks, Ctrip rose nearly 6%, Kingsoft Cloud rose over 3%, New Oriental rose nearly 2%, Baidu rose by 0.7%, Tencent slightly rose, while Pinduoduo fell by 3%, Bilibili fell by 2.5%, JD.com fell by nearly 0.3%, and Alibaba and NetEase fell by about 0.2%.

Banking stocks showed mixed performance for two consecutive days. The overall banking index, KBW Bank Index (BKX), closed up by 0.4%, rising for three consecutive days since January 30th, with a weekly increase of nearly 0.5%. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed down by 0.1%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P 500 Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed down by 0.2%, both falling for five consecutive days since February 14th, with weekly declines of nearly 1.7% and over 1.7%, respectively.

Among the stocks that released earnings reports, payment company Square (SQ) rose by 16.1% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue higher than expected and a whopping 22% year-on-year increase in gross profit, with a forecast of at least a 15% increase in gross profit by 2024 compared to 2023. Online used car retailer Carvana (CVNA) rose by 32.1% after reporting fourth-quarter EPS losses less than half of analysts' expectations and achieving annual profitability for the first time. However, online travel service company Booking Holdings (BKNG) fell by 10.1% after reporting first-quarter total orders and EBITDA profit guidance below expectations. In the fourth quarter, e-commerce company MercadoLibre (MELI) saw a 10.4% drop in stock price due to zero growth in EPS profit compared to the same period last year and operating profit far below expectations. Medical device company Insulet (PODD) also experienced a nearly 6.6% decline in stock price after its first-quarter revenue guidance growth was lower than expected.

Furthermore, electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian (RIVN) plummeted nearly 26% after announcing a fourth-quarter loss higher than expected. UBS downgraded Rivian from buy to sell, slashing the target price from $24 to $8, resulting in a 12% drop in stock price on Friday. Medical device company Penumbra (PEN) fell by 9.2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating from overweight to neutral following weak full-year guidance.

In European stocks, despite overall gains, market sentiment was dampened by speeches from European Central Bank officials, including ECB President Lagarde. Lagarde mentioned that wage growth data in the fourth quarter was encouraging but not enough to convince the central bank that high inflation has been overcome. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated that there is currently not enough evidence to suggest that inflation is under control, and the ECB should resist the temptation to cut interest rates prematurely, especially before the key wage data for the second quarter is released this year.

The pan-European stock index rose for two consecutive days. The STOXX 600 index hit a record high for two consecutive days. Most major European stock indices continued to rise, with the CAC 40 hitting a record high for seven consecutive trading days, the DAX rising for three consecutive days and hitting a record high for two consecutive days, the FTSE MIB and FTSE 100 rising for four and two consecutive days respectively, while the IBEX 35, which rose for four consecutive days, saw a slight decline.

In terms of sectors, the automotive sector, up more than 1.1%, and the chemical sector, up about 1%, led the gains. Banks rose by 0.8%, with UK's Standard Chartered Bank rising by 4.9% after announcing a $1 billion buyback plan and dividend payout to shareholders following a 13% profit growth in 2023. However, the technology sector fell by nearly 0.4%, with ASML, the Dutch-listed chip stock with the highest market value in Europe, dropping by nearly 1.4% after a more than 5% surge on Thursday.

Despite expectations of a rebound in core profits in 2024 and plans to further cut annual costs by €1 billion, German chemical giant BASF still fell by 0.5%. Volvo, listed in Sweden, dropped by 4.9% after announcing plans to distribute approximately SEK 9.5 billion worth of Polestar shares, accounting for 60% of its holdings, to Geely.

This week, the STOXX 600 index rose for five consecutive weeks, with gains of over 1% each week for two consecutive weeks. Most European stock indices have seen cumulative gains, with Italian stocks up over 3% for five consecutive weeks, German and French stocks rising for three weeks, and Spanish stocks rebounding after two weeks of decline, while British stocks, which rebounded last week, saw a slight cumulative decline.

Partly due to Friday's gains, the automotive and chemical sectors both saw cumulative gains of about 3.5% this week, with the automotive sector leading for two consecutive weeks. Banks rose by nearly 1.9%, while the basic resources sector, where mining stocks, which rose by over 2% last week, are located, fell by nearly 3%. The technology sector, which saw a slight cumulative decline last week, and the oil and gas sector, one of the two sectors that declined last week, dropped by nearly 0.3%.

Two-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Hits Over Two-Month Intraday High Before Declining, Continues to Rise for Four Consecutive Weeks

European bond prices rose across the board, leading to a decline in yields. By the end of the bond market session, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond was around 4.03%, dropping by approximately 7 basis points intraday; the 2-year UK bond yield was around 4.50%, decreasing by about 8 basis points intraday; the benchmark 10-year German government bond yield was around 2.36%, dropping by around 8 basis points intraday, marking the largest decline in over a month; the 2-year German bond yield was around 2.85%, decreasing by about 5 basis points intraday.

Some analysts believe that the significant drop in European bond yields on Friday was due to dovish comments from European Central Bank officials. Mario Centeno, a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated that the central bank should maintain an open attitude towards cutting interest rates as early as March, even if it may not take action that month. Isabel Schnabel, one of the most hawkish members of the ECB Governing Council, mentioned that inflation expectations seem to be under control, and businesses in the Eurozone are beginning to absorb the rapid wage growth.

Due to the decline in yields on Friday, most European bond yields fell this week. The 10-year UK bond yield fell by approximately 7 basis points this week after rising for two consecutive weeks; the 2-year UK bond yield, which had risen for five weeks in a row, dropped by about 10 basis points; German bond yields retreated, with the 10-year German bond yield falling by a total of about 4 basis points after rising for two weeks; the 2-year German bond yield increased by about 4 basis points, rising for three consecutive weeks.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury benchmark bond rose to nearly 4.35% before the European stock market opened, hitting a high not seen since December 1, 2023, for two consecutive days, increasing by nearly 3 basis points intraday. However, it later fell, with the U.S. stock market breaking below 4.30% in the morning session, briefly dropping below 4.25% to set a new daily low at midday. By the end of the bond market session, it was around 4.25%, decreasing by about 7 basis points intraday. Yields on other maturities of U.S. Treasuries also fell after rising for two consecutive days, with a cumulative decrease of about 3 basis points this week after rising for two weeks, marking the second week of decline in the past six weeks.

The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose above 4.74% in early European trading, hitting a new high, increasing by about 3 basis points intraday. It fell below 4.70% towards the end of the U.S. stock market morning session, briefly dropping to 4.67% to set a new daily low. After hitting a high not seen since the first day of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 13 last year and then reaching a high not seen since December 11 last year, it fell by over 7 basis points from the daily high. By the end of the bond market session, it was around 4.69%, decreasing by about 2 basis points intraday. This week, it increased by about 5 basis points, rising for four consecutive weeks and marking the sixth week of increase in the past 11 weeks.

Yields on various maturities of U.S. Treasuries fell this week, with long-term bond yields declining while short-term bond yields continued to rise.

U.S. Dollar Index Posts First Weekly Decline of the Year, Offshore Renminbi Falls Over 100 Points Intraday, Breaking Below 7.21, But Rises for Two Consecutive Weeks in the Year of the Dragon

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, experienced multiple declines during Friday's session. After falling in the Asian market session, it rose in the pre-European stock market session, briefly breaking above 104.00 to set a new daily high, with an intraday increase of nearly 0.1%. In the early European stock market session, it fell below 103.80 after rising, approaching the low near 103.50 set on February 2, with an intraday decrease of nearly 0.2%. In the U.S. stock market morning session, it rose again briefly above 104.00. At the end of the morning session, the market turned down, then rebounded in the afternoon.

By the time the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, the dollar index was slightly below 104.00, showing a slight increase after three consecutive days of decline, roughly maintaining the level of Thursday, with a weekly decline of 0.3%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the dollar against ten other major currencies, also saw a slight increase, halting a four-day decline with a weekly drop of over 0.1%. Both the dollar index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index ended seven consecutive weeks of gains and experienced their first weekly decline since 2024.

This week marked the first weekly decline for the dollar index since the beginning of the year, but by Friday, it had rebounded from the near four-week low set on Thursday.

Among non-U.S. currencies, the euro against the dollar briefly rose to 1.0840 during the European stock market session, hitting a daily high and rising nearly 0.2%. The pound against the dollar broke above 1.2700 during the European session, approaching the high of 1.2710 set on February 2, with a daily increase of over 0.3%. The yen hit a new low for the week for two consecutive days, then erased its losses, with the dollar against the yen approaching 150.80 before the European session, hitting a high since February 13, rising nearly 0.2%. The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the dollar rose to 7.1987 during the early Asian session, then fell during the European session, dropping below 7.21 to 7.2143, down 156 points from the daily high, continuing to retreat from the intraday high set on January 31 after breaking above 7.19 on Wednesday.

As of 5:59 AM Beijing time on February 24, the offshore Chinese yuan against the dollar was at 7.2057, down 36 points from the New York closing on Thursday, falling for two consecutive days after rising for six days, with a weekly increase of 71 points, marking two consecutive weeks of gains since the Lunar New Year.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly rose to $51,700 during the early Asian session, then fell below $51,000 during the European session, dropping to below $50,300 during the U.S. session, down over $1,000 from the daily high, a drop of nearly 3%, moving away from the high of December 2021 when it hit $53,000. By the U.S. market close, it was above $51,000, down over 1% in the past 24 hours and over 1% in the past seven days.

Crude oil hit a three-month high and then fell sharply the next day, marking the first weekly decline this month. U.S. oil fell nearly 3% to a two-week low. International crude oil futures opened low and continued to decline, with the midday trading of US stocks hitting a daily low. The US WTI crude oil fell below $76.40, dropping nearly 2.9% intraday, while Brent crude oil fell below $80.70, down 3.6% intraday.

Ultimately, crude oil, which had risen for two consecutive days, fell from the closing high on November 6 last year. WTI crude oil futures for April fell by 2.70% to $76.49 per barrel, hitting a closing low since February 8; Brent crude oil futures for April fell by 2.45% to $81.62 per barrel, hitting a closing low since February 14.

This week, US oil contracts for the front month fell by about 2.5%, while Brent oil fell by about 2.2%, both falling after two consecutive weeks of gains, marking the first weekly decline this month and the second weekly decline in the last six weeks. Since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, crude oil has fallen for 11 weeks out of 20.

US gasoline and natural gas futures also declined. NYMEX March gasoline futures, which had risen for two consecutive days, fell by 2.5% to $2.2767 per gallon, hitting a low since February 7, with a weekly decline of about 2.5% and a two-week consecutive decline. NYMEX March natural gas futures fell by 7.45% to $1.6030 per million British thermal units, falling for two consecutive days and approaching the closing low since June 2020 set on Tuesday, despite a significant rebound of 12.5% on Wednesday, still accumulating a 0.37% decline for the week, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline.

London copper falls from three-week high, still rises for two consecutive weeks, London nickel rises nearly 7% in a week, gold rebounds to a two-week high

London base metal futures mostly rose on Friday. London nickel rose for three consecutive days, hitting new highs since November last year for two consecutive days. London lead rose for four consecutive days, continuing to hit new highs for over two weeks. London tin ended a seven-day decline, bidding farewell to two-week lows. London zinc, which fell on Thursday, rebounded to highs of over two weeks. London copper fell from the three-week high set during the three consecutive rises, while London aluminum fell for two consecutive days, hitting lows since late January held on Tuesday.

This week, most basic metals continued to rise, with London nickel leading the gains by nearly 7%, London lead rising by over 1%, London copper, which rose by 3.7% last week, increased by over 0.9%, and London zinc, which rose by 3.7% last week, increased by 0.8%. They all rose for two consecutive weeks, while London tin, which rose for two consecutive weeks, fell by over 2%, marking the second weekly decline in the last seven weeks, and London aluminum, which stopped the two-week decline last week, fell by nearly 2%.

New York gold futures hit a daily low of $2025.4 before the European stock market opened, dropping nearly 0.3% intraday. European stocks turned higher in early trading, and US stocks hit a daily high of $2053.2 at midday, rising by 1.1% intraday.

In the end, COMEX April gold futures, which had fallen for two consecutive days, rose by 0.92% to $2049.40 per ounce, hitting a closing high since February 7, with a weekly increase of 1.25% after two weeks of decline.

Since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, gold futures have fallen for six weeks out of 20, with three weeks in January, including the first week of the new year. The largest decline was nearly 3.6% in the week of December 8, when spot gold fell below the $2000 mark during trading, similar to the previous week. During Thursday's intraday trading, spot gold rebounded after a decline, approaching $2016 in Friday's European stock market session to refresh the daily low. It fell by about 0.4% intraday, then turned higher in the European stock market session. The US stocks rose above $2041.40 in the midday session, breaking through $2040 for the first time since February 7th, with an intraday increase of over 0.8%. By the closing of the US stock market, it was above $2036, up nearly 0.6% intraday.

Spot gold has risen for six out of the last seven trading days, closing at a high level since the beginning of this month.