Quick Overview: How do brokerage analysts evaluate LI AUTO?

1. BOCI Research Raises Li Auto's Target Price to HKD 295

Li Auto's cost reduction exceeded expectations, offsetting the impact of a weaker sales mix and increased promotional expenses. It is estimated that sales in March will reach a new high of over 50,000 vehicles. The operational guidance indicates a strong profit outlook for this year, with management setting ambitious targets of 70,000 vehicles sold by June and monthly sales of 100,000 vehicles by the end of the year, both exceeding market expectations. Additionally, management emphasized that the first-quarter automotive profit margin will be over 20%, significantly higher than expected.

Maintaining a "buy" rating for Li Auto's Hong Kong shares, the target price is raised from HKD 235 to HKD 295, equivalent to a forecasted P/E ratio of 25 for this year. Sales forecasts for the current and next year have been revised from 700,000 and 930,000 vehicles to 720,000 and 1.01 million vehicles, respectively.

1. Goldman Sachs Raises Li Auto's Target Price to HKD 215

Li Auto's management reiterated this year's sales guidance of 800,000 vehicles, implying a year-on-year growth of over 100%. The gross profit margin will remain above 20% each quarter. Despite concerns from investors about profit pressure due to ongoing price competition in the market, Li Auto's gross margin resilience mainly comes from strong cost control (capacity utilization exceeding 100%), deflation in supply chain prices (improved component yield rates), and a slowdown in NEV demand in other regions globally.

Based on higher profit margin assumptions, earnings per share forecasts for Li Auto from 2024 to 2026 have been raised by 4% to 10%. The target price for Li Auto is also raised by 4% to HKD 215, with a reiterated "buy" rating, reflecting expectations of the company launching 5 new cars this year and expanding its sales network to 400 stores. It is also anticipated that Li Auto will have the fastest profit growth and the most abundant free cash flow among the Chinese automotive OEMs covered by the bank.

1. Morgan Stanley: Li Auto Rated as Overweight with a Target Price of $63

Despite challenges facing the Chinese new energy vehicle sector, Li Auto's management is optimistic about the outlook for this year and has reaffirmed its target to deliver 800,000 vehicles. With strong support from the extended-range electric vehicle (EREV)/battery electric vehicle (BEV) pipeline, car sales are expected to grow by over 20%, boosting market sentiment.

1. Citi: Raises Li Auto's Target Price to HKD 220.3, Maintains "Buy" Rating Li Auto's product line is strong, and the management has indicated that the monthly sales target for June this year is 70,000 units, and by the end of the year, it is expected to reach 100,000 units, which is positive. Therefore, the sales forecast for the period from this year to 2026 has been revised upwards from 700,000, 790,000, and 850,000 units to 730,000, 860,000, and 950,000 units. The three-year net profit forecast has also been raised by 2% to 5%, to 16 billion, 20.4 billion, and 26 billion respectively. Based on conservative estimates, the EBIT profit margin for this year is estimated to be 6.9%, with a return on invested capital of 21%, an asset turnover rate of 1.4 times, and a free cash flow of 45 billion yuan.

Citigroup has raised the target price for Li Auto from 203.4 Hong Kong dollars to 220.3 Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to a forecasted P/E ratio of 27 times for this year and 21 times for next year, maintaining a "buy" rating.

CICC: Maintains a "Outperform Industry" rating on Li Auto-W with a target price of 230 Hong Kong dollars.

Maintaining an "Outperform Industry" rating on Li Auto-W (02015), considering its operational resilience exceeding expectations, the 2024 non-GAAP profit forecast has been raised by 6% to 16 billion yuan, introducing a new profit of 23 billion yuan for 2025, with a target price of 230 Hong Kong dollars. The company announced its 4Q performance: revenue of 41.73 billion yuan, up 20.3% QoQ; Non-GAAP net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 32.3% QoQ. Despite intensified market competition, the company has maintained stable gross profit margins and various financial indicators, achieving record quarterly and per vehicle profits, exceeding market expectations.

CMBI: Maintains a "Buy" rating on Li Auto-W with a target price of 192.8 Hong Kong dollars.

Maintaining a "Buy" rating on Li Auto-W (02015), with profit forecasts for 2024/2025 raised by 18.6/49.3% to reflect the contributions of the MEGA, L6, and 3 new pure electric vehicles in 2024 and 2025. Additionally, despite intense market competition, benefiting from economies of scale and optimized product structure, the full-year gross profit margin is expected to remain above 20%. Adjusting the target price to 192.8 Hong Kong dollars due to exchange rate fluctuations, it is the top choice among new forces in the market.