Wallstreetcn
2024.02.29 14:18
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ZEEKR leaves no room for XIAOMI-W to survive.

No way out.

Author: Chai Xuchen

Editor: Zhou Zhiyu

Despite the solemn promise not to redesign ZEEKR before the second half of 2024, they made a sudden move on February 27th, pushing Lei Jun and his XIAOMI-W car into a corner.

As the flagship model that ZEEKR has been selling for three years, the latest mid-term redesign has arrived. The 800V platform, fast-charging battery, 8295 smart cockpit chip, and hardware such as laser radar are now standard across the board, some configurations and exterior kits even surpassing their own "million-level" flagship supercar 001 FR.

Moreover, the price has not increased but decreased. The updated ZEEKR has been reduced by 31,000 to 60,000 compared to the old model, with prices starting as low as 269,000 yuan. Along with a series of "zero-cost" early benefits, the self-proclaimed "king of deals" ZEEKR is openly displaying ambitions to dominate the 200,000+ pure electric vehicle market.

Looking at the specifications of various ZEEKR models, it seems that ZEEKR is directly challenging XIAOMI-W's configuration list by releasing the 209,900 yuan ZEEKR and the 269,000 yuan ZEEKR, cultivating the discerning tastes of potential XIAOMI-W customers, leaving Lei Jun, who is unwilling to follow the old path of cost-effectiveness, in a dilemma.

During the entire press conference, comments related to XIAOMI-W cars were constantly popping up on-site and on the live stream, with netizens calling out "Let Lei Jun learn from this."

By making a move four months early, implementing a high cost-performance strategy, and involving the internet traffic star XIAOMI-W, ZEEKR is starting the year at full throttle.

In a post-event interview, Lin Jinwen, Vice President of Sales at ZEEKR, revealed to Wall Street News that the original product release schedule was indeed disrupted by the current competitive situation. He admitted that the new 001 model's overall cost had increased by more than 50,000 yuan, "basically not making any profit."

The price reduction and increased configuration of the new ZEEKR reflect the immense pressure on ZEEKR, as it senses the market's warning signals.

Last year, despite several price adjustments, ZEEKR's various products still did not achieve full annual sales. ZEEKR's sales volume has never exceeded ten thousand units per month throughout the year, fluctuating between 6,000 and 8,000 units per month, dropping back to over 5,000 units in January this year. The fluctuating sentiments of investors in the capital market have to some extent affected ZEEKR's ability to achieve the desired high valuation, leading to adjustments in the IPO timetable.

"In times of turmoil, there is no peace," Lin Jinwen said. "The market is ruthless, with new competitors entering every day. It seems that the market is more turbulent than ever this year."

An Conghui also mentioned in an internal meeting, "If ZEEKR wants to succeed in the future, there is no room for error this year, otherwise it will be a complete loss." According to the plan, the fully armed new model 001 aims to increase sales to a new level, stabilizing at over ten thousand units per month. At the same time, resources are being accumulated for the upcoming compact MPV (internal code CM2E) that is about to be launched, laying a solid foundation.

This year, with a total of 5 models, An Conghui is confident that achieving the sales target of 230,000 units is not difficult. Lin Jinwen, on the other hand, only sees short-term challenges in ramping up production capacity.

An Conghui firmly believes that the market share above 200,000 yuan will definitely expand, with the largest growth in the 200,000-300,000 yuan range for pure electric vehicles. This is the foundation of ZEEKR's growth. If the product structure is well done, ZEEKR has the opportunity to achieve both profit margin and sales volume.

Regarding the question of whether "price reduction and increased configuration" will erode ZEEKR's profit margin and affect the IPO, Lin Jinwen mentioned, "Under the vast architecture, high commonality of components, and continuous sales of sibling models, once the volume picks up, all links in the entire supply chain will lower costs."

The prospectus shows that in the first half of last year, ZEEKR's gross profit margin was about 12%. After experiencing an escalated price war and an increase in shipments, the gross profit margin for the first nine months rose to 14.8%.

Lin Jinwen pointed out that the support of the Geely system is one of ZEEKR's core competitive advantages. "In the short term, it's not so much about how much ammunition is in your pocket, but about winning first."

Clearly, ZEEKR's urgent need to scale up has been placed in a critical position.

In An Conghui's view, ZEEKR has not yet reached the pinnacle in the pure electric race track, and there is still room for growth. In January, ZEEKR has become the top-selling pure electric brand above 200,000, which is a good start.

However, ZEEKR faces pressure as XIAOMI-W cars may explore some models below 200,000 yuan, which aligns well with its user base. Coupled with XIAOMI-W's marketing advantages with Lei Jun, they may snatch a piece of ZEEKR's cake in this price range.

Lin Jinwen, however, remains optimistic about this. He believes that XIAOMI-W's entry can accelerate clearance and is a good thing for the entire market. "The entry of strong players will definitely help top companies clear the battlefield. In the past three years, although all top car companies have faced numerous competitions in terms of price, categories, etc., after the dust settles, the top five companies have all grown larger every year."

Previously, Li Xiang, Chairman of Li Auto, made a similar argument, stating, "By the fourth quarter of 2024, the top three brands above 200,000 yuan in the new energy market will account for 70% of the market share."

Currently, there is no absolute king in the market above 200,000 yuan, and everyone has the opportunity to compete.

To support the sales target, ZEEKR plans to open more than 200 new stores nationwide this year, optimize stores in first and second-tier cities, significantly increase "ZEEKR Homes," and expand the number of channels in third and fourth-tier cities. As for intelligence, especially in autonomous driving, ZEEKR is intensifying efforts to make up for shortcomings. An Conghui mentioned that the self-developed autonomous driving team is expected to increase from 1,500 to 2,000 people this year. During this interview, An Conghui solemnly pointed out that the knockout stage has already begun, and only by winning all can one survive.

ZEEKR has no retreat, it is going to engage in a fierce battle with XIAOMI-W Motors, and it must accelerate with all its might. Only in this way can it secure victory in the industry reshuffle, win the favor of more consumers and investors, and successfully come ashore riding on the Matthew effect.

In this intense battle, ZEEKR has already surged to the forefront.