Breakfast | SPDR S&P 500 issues overbought warning, intense debate on NVIDIA stock outlook.

Good morning! A great day starts with making money.

Daylight saving time begins in North America from Sunday, with trading hours and economic data release times in the US and Canada advancing by one hour compared to standard time. The US stock market will open at 21:30 Singapore time.

Overnight Market Update

In the early Asian market today, US stock index futures saw little change at the opening. The Dow Jones futures rose slightly by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq futures fell by 0.06% and the S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.03%. Spot gold opened slightly higher, reaching up to $2180 per ounce.

Last Friday, all three major US stock indexes closed lower, with the Dow falling by 0.18%, the S&P 500 down by 0.65%, and the Nasdaq dropping by 1.16%. Intel fell by 4.66%, Nvidia by 5.55%, and Tesla by 1.85%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose. Last week, the Dow fell by 0.93%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq fell by 1.17%.

Today, China will release economic data including M2 money supply for February, new social financing scale, and new RMB loans. US President Biden will submit the 2025 budget proposal to Congress today, and the closing session of the Second Session of the Fourteenth National People's Congress of China will be held today.

Blue Chips and Hot Stocks

Media: ChatGPT consumes over 500,000 kWh per day, which is more than 17,000 times that of an average American household.

ByteDance responds to rumors of former Blizzard CEO negotiating to buy TikTok: Not true.

JPMorgan: Upgrades Bilibili (BILI.O) to Neutral; target price $11; upgrades Bilibili (09626.HK) to Neutral; target price HK$85.

X to Launch TV App Similar to YouTube

Elon Musk's X company plans to launch a TV app for Amazon and Samsung smart TVs to compete with YouTube. The new app looks "identical" to YouTube. Live streaming platform Twitch, encrypted communication app Signal, and social media forum Reddit are all software Musk hopes to compete with.

Li Auto's MEGA faces a photo editing controversy, with CEO Li Xiang breaking his silence after days, saying, "No matter how difficult it is, we must not become 'Darth Vader'," in response to recent rumors about MEGA.

Under Hongkong Land's THE HOLBORN in Quarry Bay, 30 units were sold yesterday, all sold out on the same day. Prices ranged from HK$4.9728 million to HK$7.7278 million, with a price per square foot ranging from HK$21,907 to HK$27,898, totaling over HK$170 million.

Artificial Intelligence

Baidu's Robin Li stated in a CCTV interview that the Chinese Wenxin Large Model 4.0 has surpassed GPT-4 in Chinese language processing.

Morgan Stanley: AI Infrastructure is Just Beginning, Nvidia is not Cisco

The current AI infrastructure investment frenzy is still in its early stages and has not reached the bubble level of the Internet in 1999. Back then, Cisco's revenue growth rate reached 59%, with a forward P/E ratio as high as 138 times. Currently, Nvidia's P/E ratio is only 30 times, with a revenue growth rate of 90%. Nvidia's significant drop on Friday seems to confirm the arrival of the "Cisco moment." Morgan Stanley believes that, in terms of the technological environment, strength, and valuation, NVIDIA is not the Cisco of the past. The construction of AI infrastructure is just the beginning, as every large-scale enterprise is building infrastructure to develop applications, tools, and services on top of it.

"Cathie Wood Worries about NVIDIA's Surge"

Cathie Wood, the founder of Ark Investment Management, expressed her concerns in a letter to shareholders about NVIDIA's surge. If software revenue does not show explosive growth, it will not prove the rationality of NVIDIA's excessive GPU capacity construction. If customers temporarily halt such expenditures, coupled with NVIDIA having to adjust to excess inventory, we will not be surprised.

Cryptocurrency

In the early Asian market today, Ethereum fell below $3,800 per coin, down 2.81% intraday.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $70,000 per coin, with options betting on $100,000

Bitcoin has risen for 7 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of over 70%. In the options market, the number of open contracts for bullish options on Bitcoin with strike prices of $80,000 and $100,000 has surged by around 12% in the past 24 hours.

Bill Ackman Considers Buying Bitcoin

Bill Ackman, the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, has shifted some of his focus to Bitcoin. He boldly predicts that the price of Bitcoin could skyrocket to levels much higher than anyone can imagine. Bitcoin goes to infinity, energy prices soar, and the economy collapses. Maybe I should buy some Bitcoin. Of course, the question is everything can go the other way.

IPO Opportunities

Reddit plans to issue 22 million shares at a price of $31 to $34 per share; it is reported that they have prepared a revised IPO application to be submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, with the IPO expected to raise up to $748 million.

Macro View: Insights into the World

ING: We continue to believe that there is a high possibility of an interest rate cut in June, and the Federal Reserve has hinted at gradually returning policy to a more neutral level later this year. This has already been fully priced in by the market.

S&P 500 Index Rally Stalls, Overbought Warning Emerges

Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., stated, "In our view, there is no doubt that a significant amount of 'froth' has entered the market recently."

Chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, Tim Lui: Suggests optimizing the record-filing system for mainland companies listing overseas.

German railway and aviation personnel plan to continue striking as intense wage disputes escalate, with discontent spreading to sectors such as agriculture. Farmers are blocking roads, holding rallies, and protesting subsidy cuts nationwide.

Chinese Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Real estate still has great potential and space; promoting the sales of existing homes in a powerful and orderly manner; improving the "guarantee + market" housing supply system; for real estate companies with serious insolvency and loss of operational capabilities, bankruptcy should be declared if necessary, and restructuring should be carried out.

Chinese Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: This year, the policy of reducing unemployment and work injury insurance rates will continue; the social security card will gradually achieve "one card for the whole country."