Morgan Stanley, known for its contrarian stance on Wall Street, remains steadfast in its bearish outlook by maintaining its year-end target of 4,500 points for the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500.
On Wall Street, the expectations for a rise are high, but Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley remains firm in not raising the expectations, citing a lack of broad profit growth reasons. He predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach 4,500 points by the end of the year, lower than the current 5,118 points. Despite other banks raising their forecasts, Wilson believes that the increase in multiples is not enough to change expectations. He is concerned that profit growth is still missing and indicates that the risk of a hard landing has not yet been eliminated.
Zhitong App learned that amidst many Wall Street forecasters raising their optimistic expectations for the US stock market, Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley remains unmoved. He believes that without broad profit growth, there is not enough reason to raise expectations.
Despite major Wall Street banks such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and UBS increasingly raising their forecasts for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500, this strategist insisted on keeping the year-end forecast for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 at 4500 points during an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance radio on Tuesday.
Compared to the closing price of around 5118 points for Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 on Monday, Wilson's forecast is about 12% lower. It is also 8% lower than the average year-end forecast of 4915 points tracked by Bloomberg among Wall Street strategists. Currently, only JPMorgan Chase has a 2024 forecast lower than Wilson's.
Wilson stated, "Many have raised their target prices due to the multiple expansion, but we are not willing to do so."
Wilson's doubts mainly stem from the significant rebound of the US stock market since October. Driven by enthusiasm surrounding corporate earnings, artificial intelligence, and economic strength, Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 has risen for 16 out of the past 19 weeks. After declining in the past two trading days, the index rebounded on Tuesday. Following higher-than-expected inflation data, there was a rise, maintaining expectations for at least three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, other Wall Street peers are more optimistic. They point out that despite tightening monetary policy, US companies and the economy continue to perform strongly. However, Wilson stated on Tuesday that broader profit growth is still lacking.
It is worth noting that Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500's fourth-quarter earnings have increased by 7.4% year-on-year. However, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence shows that excluding the seven tech giants, the index's profits have decreased by 1.7%. Wilson mentioned that "the risk of a hard landing has not been eliminated."
As one of the most famous bears on Wall Street in recent years, Wilson correctly predicted the stock market crash in 2022. He persisted throughout 2023 in believing that the US stock market would decline after the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 surged by 24%. Since then, he has taken a more constructive view of the US stock market.
Wilson believes that speculative activities in the entire market have begun to rebound in a "meaningful way," with zero-day trading and leverage becoming increasingly popular, indicating a high level of market prosperity.
"It doesn't necessarily have to end in tears," he said. "Leverage is not always a bad thing. Currently, due to the FOMO sentiment (fear of missing out), people are seeking risks."